Saturday, November 7, 2009
Roberts Week 9 Pro Football Picks: Panthers Could Be Upset Of The Year
Cardinals +3 @ Bears: Arizona falls into that category of being to win anywhere, as we a couple weeks ago at New York, and also being able to lose to anyone like we saw last week in their home game against the Panthers.
They may seem like a risky bet, but this is more about going against the Bears who are still trying to figure out their identity with Jay Cutler at the helm. Last week they went to their running game for the first time all season with Matt Forte and didn't let Cutler's interceptions beat them.
This week, they'll get a team who can put points on the board and be forced to use Cutler's turnover machine.
Panthers +13 @ Saints: Why even mess around the Saints? Well, getting four-points of value is a good beginning to the answer. The proper line should be around 9 or 10 at most, but is inflated because of Las Vegas' current losses with bad teams and lovable favorites like the Saints and Colts.
The Panthers have also owned this team over the last four years winning 7 of 8 games. Jake Delhomme should be happier than ever going to his home and getting some good luck Gumbo where he has had some of his best games. In his last 5 games against the Saints he's had 8 TD's and only one pick.
The power running game of the Panthers will not be stopped by the Saints who haven't been put to the test for four quarters against a good running team. The Dolphins had them on the ropes, but let them off the hook with bad play calling in the second half. If the Saints had trouble with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, then they're really going to love Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.
Not only is the points good value here, but a money line play at +600 is worth a shot.
Dallas-Philadelaphia OVER 49: The last two seasons these two teams have had shootouts in their first meeting. The game has gone over 50 in 3 of the last 4 games. The best sign is that the game is in November where Tony Romo is virtually unbeatable and has his best games statistically throughout his career. If there was a November Hall of Fame, Romo's picture would be the silhouette on the logo.
No worries about Philly scoring either. Donovan McNabb and DeSean Jackson like to make bigsplays with regularity and with Dallas' weak coverage and suddenly meek pass-rush, they should score big again.
Denver +3 vs Pittsburgh: Everyone knew the Broncos were phony and they proved it at Baltimore, or so the experts are claiming. Doesn't matter that they beat Dallas, New England, and San Diego in a Monday night road game, does it? Those were flukes, and a team like the World Champion Steelers will expose them further, right?
The same argument was made the last time the Steelers had just won the Super Bowl. They strolled into Denver as 3-point road favorites and got beat straight up.
Denver's lapse last week was a mere matter of a team coming off a bye, traveling from the west to play and early game in the east. Western teams traveling east very rarely fare well, no matter what a teams record is. Starting out 6-0 and then having to wait two weeks killed some momentum, but the buildings blocks that got them big wins are still there.
The home crowd will make a huge difference and Denver will win straight up again as a dog like they have done four times already this season.