Roberts Week 16 NFL Selections; Bucs Look to be The Side

By Micah Roberts

Packers-Giants headline an amazing week 16

There is no question who the best sports commissioner in the world is. Hello Roger Goodell, and thanks for making so many proactive changes in such a short time. Beyond being the only NFL commissioner to actually take a look at the lingering affects of concussions and hold players accountable for conduct off the field, his greatest gift to the fans may be changing the late season schedule to reflect more meaningful games. Last week had eight divisional rematches, this week we have three and in the final week, every game will be divisional rematches.

Not that he planned it, but this week we also have the pleasure of seeing every game mean something except for the Texans-Broncos and Lions-Dolphins games. Week 16 is like the first week of the wild, wild card in the playoffs. 19 teams are still in the hunt for a playoff birth that is only offered to 12. One of the most attractive betting opportunities features two of those teams vying for a spot.

Tampa Bay is hanging on by a thread for their playoff lives while Seattle is fighting for the NFC West division crown and seemingly given every opportunity to lose and still be in it. The Bucs have to win this game while the Seahawks could actually lose and still have a shot at the division with their week 17 matchup against the Rams.

Even though Tampa Bay has eight wins, they haven’t beat a team with a winning record. Not only does Seattle have a losing record, but they’ll be trying to win on the road for one of the longest road trips anyone in the NFL could make as they travel from the northeast corner of the country to the very bottom of the southeast. West coast teams traveling east is rarely a good bet, especially from a Seattle team that routinely gets whacked by double digits.

The main culprit for each team’s success and demise has been turnovers. Seattle gives the ball up frequently and is third worst in the league with at a -9 ratio while the Bucs saving grace this season has been being able to hold onto the ball at +8. In Matt Hasselbeck’s last four starts, he has thrown 10 interceptions. The Seahawks only win over that stretch was beating the lowly Panthers in Seattle. I’ll take Tampa Bay, who is favored by 6-points, to win by 14.

Detroit @ Miami (-3 ½): You’ve got the best cover team in the NFL with the Lions (10-4 ATS) who are on a two game winning streak against the worst home team with the Dolphins (1-6). The only negative could be Shaun Hill starting instead of Drew Stanton, who engineered the Lions last two wins. Because of that winning cohesion gone with Stanton, I would lean towards the Dolphins, but would be hard pressed to bet on them.

Minnesota @ Philadelphia (-14 ½): The Vikings have packed it in having been blown out in their last two games. Joe Webb playing quarterback doesn’t inspire confidence and going against a team that is clicking like the Eagles will make his play look worse than he actually is. I would feel comfortable laying up to 16 with Philly.

Shanahan's confidence in Rex will be rewarded 

Washington @ Jacksonville (-7): The Jaguars have been one of the best home teams (5-2) and have everything to play for, but the question is, what Rex Grossman will show up? Will it be the “Bad” Rex that was run out of Chicago or will it be the “Good” Rex who almost engineered a win at Dallas, and more importantly covered. Same situation this week as a 7-point underdog. Because of the whole McNabb ordeal, and Mike Shanahan’s confidence in Grossman, I would look for another good game out of Grossman which make taking the points attractive.

San Francisco @ St. Louis (-2 ½): Sam Bradford has already played more games in a season than he ever has and in his last two games, he’s looked like a rookie quarterback for the first time this season throwing four interceptions with his lowest combined two game passer rating of the season. In those games, which appeared to be do or die for the Rams, Bradford was at the forefront of reasons why they lost. I think the kid is running out of gas so I’ll take the 49ers to win a close one.

New England (-7 ½) @ Buffalo: Since losing at Cleveland in week 9, the Patriots have reeled off six straight wins and have scored over 30 points in each game. Tom Brady hasn’t thrown an interception since week 6 in a win over Baltimore. The Bills should be able to score some points, but they won’t be able to keep up. Look for this to be the largest margin of victory of the day.

NY Jets @ Chicago (-1): Thanks to a spirited win by the Jets win at Pittsburgh last week ending a two game slide, you get a chance to lay less than a field goal with the Bears at home. I’m not a big fan of the Bears scheme, but did the Jets really show anything offensively last week to make us believe they are reborn from the team that couldn’t score a touchdown the previous two games? Mark Sanchez won’t be able to throw deep and the running game still isn’t in shape. I’ll take the Bears with hopes Jay Cutler starts out well.

Peyton Hillis controlling the clock should lead Browns to win

Baltimore (-3 ½) @ Cleveland: I love that the Browns are competitive again and can welcome Art Modell back home with a real threat. Since a week 6 28-10 loss at Pittsburgh, the Browns have forced every team to play to their level, forcing the tempo. In the process they have played gritty football with a chance to win every game. Getting a field goal and hook in this meaningful game for the city looks to have some value.

Tennessee @ Kansas City (-5): After a six game losing streak, the Titans rebounded strong last week with an offensive output similar to what we saw in big wins over the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys early on. The correlation looks to be having Kenny Britt back healthy once gain, a player who was out for most of those six losses. This looks like a good money line play here because this is what recent AFC West leaders do in week 16, they lose.

Indianapolis (-3) @ Oakland: Another correlation with a quarterback and team playing well due to a single receiver is the Colts plight without Austin Collie. He has been Peyton Manning’s crutch while without Dallas Clark and the Colts wins and Manning’s numbers reflect it. Collie had been banged up since week 9 before last week, and the Colts went on to lose four of five games with Manning throwing 13 of his 15 interceptions on the year. Collie is out for the season and the Raiders are playing well. I’ll take the points with the home team.

Houston (-2 ½) @ Denver: The heir apparent to Mike Shanahan, Gary Kubiak, will be auditioning his game plan for Broncos owner Pat Bowlen, who now realizes after 11 losses that Shanahan’s competitive teams of 9-7 weren’t that bad after all. Kubiak is likely to be dismissed after this year, but should have a good game plan put together to take down one of the worst teams in the league right now.

NY Giants @ Green Bay (-3): If the Giants win, they’re in, it’s that simple. If the Packers win their next two, they’re in. This is the jewel of the day with more on the line than any other game. The Packers have the advantage of being at home and having Aaron Rodgers back, while the Giants try to regroup from their meltdown last week. Will there be any lingering affects this week? It kind of feels like there has to be. That was a must win game for the division and they blew it horrifically. It’s hard game to bet, but I’d take the Packers if forced to play it.

All the Falcons do is play sound football and win

San Diego (-7 ½) @ Cincinnati: Get Terrell Owens out of the game and presto, the Bengals end their 10 game slide. Who can figure the Chargers out week to week, especially on the road (2-4) where they have lost to teams close to being as bad as the Bengals. The Chargers rarely lose in December and it’s a must win spot for them, so I’ll look for a 10-point win from them this week.

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-2 ½): It seems like a gift being able to lay less than a field goal with the Falcons at home in a game where they can clinch the division and conference with a win against a team they feel very comfortable at beating. The Saints have come on strong, but have lost more games than they have won against winning teams, including what was a near must win game last week at Baltimore. I see a close game, but lots of value laying less than a field goal with a team that has been the clear class of the NFC.


Article in the LVRJ 

Week 16 LVRJ NFL Challenge Picks

Underdogs Roll in Week 12 of the NFL

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

After having a losing Thanksgiving day where the preferred public sides and totals went 4-2 between the three NFL games, the Las Vegas sports books were all thinking “here we go again” because they all know how the story typically ends where the mounting risk of those games carry over into Friday and Saturday’s college action and the explode like a powder keg on Sunday with the remaining pro games.

But it didn’t happen this year, the year of the underdog. The sports books did lose as usual on Thanksgiving with Saints saving horrendous losses by getting hooked as a 3 ½-point favorite, but the losses stopped there with games going the books way throughout the remaining three days with a final outcome of a large winning day on Sunday.

Many thought the tide had turned and that the cream was rising to the top after a few weeks seeing the favorites cover and play well, but week 12 showed us that this season is still the season of the dogs where favorites went 5-10 for the week and 3-9 on Sunday. For the season, NFL favorites are now 74-93-6 which has equated to 10 winning weeks for the house with only one loss and a push.

To show how good Sunday was for the sports books, the only game the public had a weighted opinion on that won was the Texans 20-0 win over the Titans as 6 ½-point favorites, but Sharp money came in on the Titans late dropping the game to -5 by kickoff. By the end of the day when the remaining public teams lost, even the Texans game turned out to be a winner.

When combining the other public teams like the Steelers, Eagles, Raiders, Ravens, Browns and Giants, who all didn’t cover, it’s easy to see how the sports books raked in all the chips this week. The Steelers led the way as the most lopsided public bet team in ticket counts as a 6 ½-point favorite who took overtime to beat the Bills 19-16 after being comfortably up 13-0 at halftime.

The only other favorites who covered along with the Texans were the Chiefs and Falcons, both games of which were bet with split opinions by the public.

The one area that bettors did fare well with on their favorites were with teasers, but not enough to make a big dent on the sports books overall day. The top teasers plays of the day were with the Giants, Steelers and Ravens.

The Ravens were favored by 7 ½-points and were rolling with a 17-3 lead mid way through the fourth quarter, but with 3 minutes left in the game, the Buccaneers got a back door touchdown and extra point. Another bad beat for the favorite bettor in straight bets and parlays, but a winner on teasers.

The biggest moves of the week were both wins for the Sharp money with the Vikings and Panthers. The Redskins had opened as a 3-point home favorite against the Vikings and quickly dropped after Brad Childress was fired, By Saturday night, the Redskins were still favored by -1, but by Sunday morning the Vikings had closed as the 2-point favorite and won 17-13.

The Browns had opened as an 11-point home favorite against the Panthers, but the combination of Brian St.Pierre not starting for the Panthers and Jake Delhomme starting for the Browns had the number drop to -10 and eventually was pushed by money down to -7 ½ by kickoff. The Browns nearly lost straight up thanks to some Delhomme gift wrapped picks to his former team, but were able to hold on for a 24-23 win after John Kasay missed a field goal as time ran out.

The final game of the day, one that looked to be one of the better matchups, between the Chargers and Colts had no real bearing on the days outcome. The only thing the sports books were hoping for was the game to stay under 52 points, which happened as the Chargers befuddled Peyton Manning once again in winning 36-14. Between no outstanding liability from the weekend of games and the public each liking a side equally, this game meant very little, and just slightly more than the irrelevant outcome from Monday night’s Cardinals-49ers game.

I wish I could be optimistic and say the tide is turning for the favorites, but the writing is on the wall. There looked to be a little momentum gained the last two weeks, but it came to a screeching halt in week 12. The only real continuous momentum currently going has been the totals going over the number. Last week was only 8-7, but the trend has been a winner the last few weeks in a row. This week, teams like the Chiefs and Broncos figure to light it up the scoreboard. If Todd Haley has a chance to run it up on Josh McDaniels, he will.

The New Refrigerator
He only weighs 325 pounds, but Chiefs defensive lineman Shaun Smith did go to South Carolina, the same state that produced William Perry, and on Sunday he accomplished a feat that no one had since Perry in 1985 by recording a sack and a rushing touchdown in the same game.

Bears Growl
I’m not sure what was more impressive, the big plays the usual anemic offense of the Bears made against the Eagles, or how the defense bottled up Michael Vick. The Bears did everything right in their home 31-26 win Sunday with a score that isn’t close to indicating the type of dominant effort put forth. Who would have ever thought Chicago would be in first place at this late stage of the season, only one game back for the conference lead.

Spygate 2

Denver coach Josh McDaniels and the Broncos were each fined $50,000 by the league for taping a 49ers practice session in London. Although McDaniels didn’t watch the tape (he should of because it might have helped in their embarrassing loss), the story becomes larger because he was the offensive coordinator when the Patriots had their own famous incidents. When McDaniels explained to his coaching staff the differences between the two matters, he revealed key information that wasn’t released during the Patriots scandal, information that Bill Belichick is sure to not be happy about which could put a strain on their relationship. Once McDaniels is fired from Denver, he will need Belichick’s support and hope that he doesn’t get the cold should like another Belichcik disciple, Eric Mangini.

Speaking of Belichick’s disciple’s, he’s not exactly produced a tree of prosperity under his reign like Bill Walsh did when he won his three Super Bowls. In fact, they have all been busts when you look at McDaniels 5-16 record over his last 21 games, Mangini’s 23-25 record with the Jets and 9-18 with Browns, Romeo Crennel’s 24-40 record with the Browns and Charlie Weis going 35-27 at Norte Dame with only three bowl games (1-2) in five seasons.

Johnson-Finnegan Bout
Cortland Finnegan is the best in the league at taking players out of their game and for the second straight year, he got Andre Johnson out of his, and this time out of the game and likely a league suspension. Finnegan is the leader of a defensive team perceived dirty, while some just call them smart. Jeff Fisher teams have always been the first to gouge and poke in piles while the retaliating team gets the penalty. Even though Finnegan didn’t throw any blows like Johnson did, he too could face some league punishment because of an on going deal with him regarding similar situations.

Week 11 NFL Betting Trends

By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com

 

CHICAGO at MIAMI (Thursday, November 18)...Dolphins have now covered last 2 at home as they might be starting to turn around Sparano’s previous good road/bad home pattern (Miami had been 4-11 vs. line previous 15 at Sun Life Stadium). Bears "under" 6-2-1 TY, now "under" 16-8-1 in the Jay Cutler era since LY. Tech edge-slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.
OAKLAND at PITTSBURGH...Teams don’t meet every year but Raiders have covered last 3 meetings including major upset at Heinz Field LY as 15-point dog. Oakland has covered its last 3 TY, and Raiders "over" 3-1 away TY. Steel "over" 51-28 last 79 at Heinz Field. Tech edge-slight to Raiders and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
HOUSTON at NY JETS... Texans have now failed to cover last 5 TY. Houston also "over" 8-3 last 11 on board. Jets winning the close ones that Texans aren’t. Jets now "over" 7-2 TY and "over" 11-3 last 14 since late LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Jets, based on "totals" and team trends.

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BALTIMORE at CAROLINA... Carolina now no covers last 3 or 7 of 9 TY. Panthers also "under" 3-1 at home in 2010 and now "under" 20-8 at Charlotte since 2007. Note Ravens 0-1 as road chalk TY and just 1-3 in role since LY. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Ravens, based on "totals" trends and Panther woes.
WASHINGTON at TENNESSEE... Titans bounced back with wins and covers after first two losses but fell short last week vs. Dolphins. Titans are also "over" 13-5-1 last 19 at LP Field. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
DETROIT at DALLAS... Not much home-field edge for Jerry’s Cowboys TY, 0-4 SU and vs. line at Arlington. Lions, however, continue amazing pointspread run with covers in 8 of first 9 TY. Jerry Jones also "over" 4-0 at home TY, and Lions "over" 5 of last 6 TY. Tech edge-Lions and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA... Note that last five now "over" in this series, and Vikes "over" 5 of last 6 TY, although Pack "under" first 4 on road TY. Childress now no covers last 4 TY and 1-5 last 6 vs. number. Tech edge-Packers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
BUFFALO at CINCINNATI... Cincy 0-2 as home chalk TY, 0-8 in role since LY. Now 5-19 overall as chalk since ‘07. Cincy also "under" 21-10 last 31 at home. For what it’s worth, Marvin Lewis 0-4 SU in career vs. Buffalo (no covers in last 3, althiugh this is first meeting since ‘07). Bills have covered last 3 as road dog TY. Tech edge-Bills and "under," based on team and series trends.
CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE... Brownies have won and covered by identical 23-17 scores the past two years. Cleveland 11-4-1 vs. line last 16 on board since mid ‘09, a full season’s worth of games. Browns now "over" last 4 TY, Jags "over" 7-2 in 2010 and "over" 8-2 last 10 since late ‘09. Tech edge-"Over" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.
ARIZONA at KANSAS CITY... Whisenhunt only 1-3 as road dog TY but still 12-4 last 16 as dog. Cards "over" 8-2 last 10 since late LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.
SEATTLE at NEW ORLEANS... Seahawks have covered 2 of alst 3 on road after dropping 10 of previous 11 away vs. spread. Saints have won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 as they shake from their own extended spread doldrums. Tech edge-slight to Saints, based on Seahawks road woes.
ATLANTA at ST. LOUIS... Recalling old NFC West days pre-2002. Rams have won and covered last 4 at home TY and have covered 6 of last 7 overall prior to SF on Sunday. Falcs have covered 5 of last 7 away and have gone "over" last 4 TY. Tech edge-Rams, based on recent home marks.
TAMPA BAY at SAN FRANCISCO... Bucs have covered first 4 on road TY and have now covered 6 straight and 8 of last 9 away. Singletary, however, 9-3-2 vs. line last 14 as host.Tech edge-slight to Bucs, based on recent trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ENGLAND... Peyton Manning is now 5-1 SU last 6 vs. Belichick after losing previous 6 to Patriots. Belichick has covered the last 2 years after dropping previous 4 on line to Manning. Colts 12-6-1 vs. line last 19 on road. Tech edge-Colts, based on team and "totals" trends.
NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA... Recent edge to Andy Reid, who has won and covered last four vs. G-Men. But NY has won and covered big its last 3 on road TY. Coughlin "over" 8-3 last 11 on road. Birds "over" 18-9 last 27 since late ‘08. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
DENVER at SAN DIEGO (Monday, November 22)...Broncos have actually split the last 2 years vs. SD and won a Monday nighter at Qualcomm LY, wearing the old-style unis, 34-23. Still, Bolts 6-1-1 vs. line last 8 in series, and Broncos have only covered 2 of last 12 meetings since ‘04. "Overs" 6-2 last 8 in series, and Denver "over" last 7 as visitor. Norv "over" 9-4 at home since LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Bolts, based on "totals" and series trends.

Roberts Week 10 NFL Plays: Tampa Bay Leads the Way

Here are my NFL bets I made for week 10:
Buccaneers -7 vs. Panthers
Jaguars -1 ½ vs. Texans
Vikings -1 @ Chicago
Jets -3 @ Cleveland
Titans -1 ½ @ Miami
Broncos +1 vs. Chiefs

Roberts Week 9 NFL Selections: Falcons and Giants are the Best Bets

The favorites went 8-5 last week bucking a season long trend of underdogs. I think the favorites will have an edge again this week, in particular some of the larger spreads.

Falcons -9 vs. Buccaneers: I keep looking at Tampa’s schedule and see only two good games on their schedule. Both of those games, against Pittsburgh and New Orleans, were blowouts and I look for the same this week.

Jets -4 @ Detroit: At first, I thought this was a trap game; the Lions getting points at home following a big win against a decent team in the Redskins and the Jets coming off a home loss to the Packers. Other than that, I just don’t see it happening and feel I’m getting value laying the points because of what happened last week. The more I looked at it, the more I sided with the Jets elevating it past several others in the rotation.

Giants -7 @ Seattle: Had Matt Hasselbeck been starting this game at home -- where the Seahawks are very impressive against anyone -- I would have a different opinion. But this game rests entirely with Charlie Whitehurst running the show for the first time ever and I don’t think he can make it happen against the best defensive front line in football. Imagine if the Giants decide to blitz -- which they will -- Whitehurst is going to wishing he was on the sideline holding that clip board again.

Chiefs +2 ½ @ Oakland: Love the way the Raiders have played the last two weeks, but I like the Chiefs better because of doing it week after week on the ground. This is a great rivalry, and should be a battle, but the Chiefs are the better team.

Colts +3 @ Philadelphia: Can Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson just come off of injuries and return to what they were prior? It’s possible, but I think it’s more likely that Peyton Manning torches the Eagles secondary like Kerry Collins and Kenny Britt did the last time the Eagles played.

Cowboys +7 ½ @ Green Bay: I like Dallas to play a good game just because the Packers are playing to everyone’s level. The Cowboys will be able to move the ball, hang around and possibly win just like the Dolphins and Redskins did.

Other games I didn’t bet, but lean towards: BUF +3, SD -2 ½, NO -6 ½, MIN -7 ½, MIA +5 ½, NE -4 ½, CIN +5      

My Entries into the LVRJ Handicapping Challenge for week 9

Roberts Week 8 NFL Plays: Broncos Bounce Back Big in London

Here are my NFL Picks for the Week. I'll have a write-up posted Saturday night on why I like the selections, but the bets are in (most anyway), so here's who I got:

Broncos +2 ½ vs. 49ers
Broncos +120 ML vs. 49ers
Broncos/49ers OVER 41 ½
Cowboys -6 ½ vs. Jaguars
Chiefs -7 ½ vs. Bills
Packers +6 @ NY Jets
Texans +6 @ Colts ( will bet Monday for best line)*
Texans +210 ML @ Colts (will bet Monday for best line)*

* The best value on this game if liking Houston is to wait until Monday morning when all of Sunday’s final parlay liability is figured into Monday’s what-if scenarios. The Colts are a huge public team and the extended risk for each sports book on them will be much higher than the Texans which will force a move to -6 ½ or -7 by game time.  

I have a few more I like for smaller unit plays which I'll include Saturday as well.                

Roberts Week 7 NFL Plays; Chiefs and Seahawks Are The Best Bets This Week

Chiefs -9 vs. Jaguars: I loved this game laying -4 ½ with David Garrard starting and love it even more with Todd Bouman getting the nod. The Chiefs are focused and ready to take care of business at home as they have done all season against good teams. Now they get a bad team with a really bad third string quarterback. There could be some over confidence coming in, but the Chiefs overall game plan and team concept doesn’t allow for too many breakdowns.

Titans -2 ½ vs. Eagles: I know DeSean Jackson is just a wide-receiver, but his value to the team is greater than most WR’s in the league. He is their focal point of offense who makes big plays. Kevin Kolb will be at a disadvantage this week. I look for Chris Johnson to have his best game of the year and the for the Titans to roll rather easily as Philly has a hard time sustaining cohesion early on.

49ers -2 ½ @ Carolina: This has the making of being an upset just because the 49ers are traveling back east again. Three times going east for a west team in the first seven games is insane! Looking back at all their losses, we now know that all those teams are quality as each have established themselves in their other games. Finally getting a win out of the way with a poor performance against Oakland should let them eases into their game being more relaxed this week. Carolina is still winless and has had trouble moving the ball. Matt Moore gets the start this week which should improve the Panthers play, but not by much. Laying less than a field goal looks good here.

Seahawks -6 vs. Cardinals: I may have been more impressed by the play of Seattle on the road last week at Chicago than I was with any other team. The addition of Marshawn Lynch and sharp reads by Matt Hasselbeck leads me to believe this is the best team in the NFC West, which this game is a battle for. Pete Carroll will have his team fired up at home like a College team and should win easily against a team that has been very fortunate this season. I see a two touchdown win here.

I’m also leaning towards the Chargers and Buccaneers, but haven’t bet on them yet. San Diego is a completely different team at home and will play like one of the league’s best on Sunday. With Tampa Bay, I just see more value with them laying less than a field goal than taking points with the Rams like was the case when St. Louis traveled to Detroit. Rams are good and improved, but won’t get there this week.

Other games I have no intention of betting on, but would lean towards: PITT -3 (EV), CIN +3 ½, WASH +3, NO -13, BALT -13, OAK +8 ½, MIN +3 (-120), DAL -3 (-120)  

Bettors Don't Lose in Week 6 of the NFL, But They Don't Win Much Either

By Micah Roberts
Gaming Today Las Vegas

We excitedly get to report that the Las Vegas Sports Books didn’t pound the bettors into submission for the sixth consecutive week of the NFL season, unfortunately, we don‘t get to report that the bettors were winners. Week six of the NFL was a wash. It was a draw, like kissing your sister, for all involved as the favorites went 6-5-2 against the spread

Because of the first five weeks of uncertainty, what should have been a strong day for the players turned out to be a push. Anytime all the favorites win, or tie, in the late games, it’s bound to be a bettors day. But that wasn’t the case in week six. Because underdogs have been so prevalent thus far, it’s got bettors tweaking their strategies and thinking long and hard about laying points. Had a week like just occurred happened last year, bettors would have cashed in mightily.

Up and down the entire rotation of Sunday’s games there wasn’t an overwhelming choice in weighted percentage by the bettors in ticket counts. The Falcons, Steelers, Bears and Colts stood out the most among public opinion, but it wasn’t the same type of action like is normally seen. Instead of being in the 70 to 80% range, these games were preferred by only 60% of public opinion. When putting it all together at such great two way action, it’s hard for the sports books not to win.

The only thing that kept the sports books from winning big was the three team favorite parlays hitting from the 1 pm games. Had just one of the underdogs covered, it would have been a good day.

The choices the bettors had to choose from on the 1 pm games were tough. You’ve got perhaps the best team in football with the Jets, but you have to lay 3-points on the road at Denver who has shown they can move the ball on anyone. Then you’ve got an 0-5 team in the 49ers and you have to lay over a touchdown against the Raiders. The final choice is betting on the 1-3 Vikings against the 1-3 Cowboys in a desperado match of two teams that can’t get it together. Those were tough choices and many had their opinions split right down the middle.

We only saw three outright underdog winners in week six. The Rams showed that are a very good football team worthy of the respect given to them by beating the Chargers as 8-point dogs. The Seahawks showed that they can win on the road by winning at Chicago in a very good all around performance. Then we had the Dolphins winning at Lambeau field in overtime giving the Packers two overtime losses in consecutive weeks.

The Packers game was somewhat of a mystery regarding the line. Many sports books didn’t post a line until Friday when it was certain that Aaron Rodgers would be starting after two days of practicing and being cleared from a minor concussion to play. The early Hilton line had the Packers -6 ½, but everyone opened the game -3 on Friday. Lucky’s sports books had been adjusting the line as information came throughout the week and went from -4 ½ to -3.

Green Bay’s biggest injury loss of the week was not having NFL sack leader Clay Matthews in the game. A defensive player rarely comes into the point spread value, but it was apparent that without Matthews that the Packers weren’t the same team defensively as they recorded no sacks against a team that threw the ball 39 times.

The Packers play Minnesota this week and Matthews should be a key part of any equation if looking to play the game. The Vikings were fortunate to be playing against the undisciplined Wade Phillips led Cowboys last week. Dallas committed 11 penalties in the game leading to the loss and sent the Cowboys to a 1-4 record on the season.

Bettors who took the Lions should be grateful to the leg of Jason Hanson who helped the 10-point underdogs back-door the Giants. Hanson second 50 yard field goal of the day late shrunk the Giants lead to 28-20 and got the cover.

Steelers backers rejoiced when the Browns kept calling timeouts late forcing Pittsburgh, favored by 13, to score in a game that was then 21-10. The Steelers did, and got the biggest spread of the day home for bettors. Even though the Browns only put up 10 points, Cleveland fans should be proud of the way rookie quarterback Colt McCoy held his own in his debut against the leagues best defense.

Even though the Chiefs lost -- but covered -- 35-31 to the Texans, I think it set in with many bettors that the Chiefs are definitely for real and a solid playoff candidate. Watching Mike Vrabel catch a touchdown pass from Matt Cassel in a play called by Charlie Weis, you couldn’t help but think the Patriots influence and winning attitude has tens erred over nicely and helped elevate the Chiefs to a new plateau.

The Saints should gain more of a following this week after watching their offense hit on all cylinders at Tampa Bay. Bettors jumped off the bandwagon after not covering all year, but things look good again as New Orleans was able to run the ball affectively with Chris Ivory. The culprit of the Saints struggles hasn’t been the absence of Reggie Bush, but rather the solid ground game of Pierre Thomas.

So who are the bad teams in the parity driven NFL right now? Buffalo and Carolina had a bye weeks, but they are the leaders. After that, the list gets small. Watching the Raiders get only 179 yards of offense Sunday at San Francisco with Jason Campbell throwing a paltry 83 yards gave everyone visions of a Jamarcus Russell led team. Outside of those three, you could make a strong argument that every other team could beat anyone on a given Sunday.  

Pick the Pros Strategy
I was looking at the week 5 results from Coast Casinos weekly Pick the Pros contest over at Sam’s Town and was amazed to see the winner went 14-0, a week that saw nine underdogs win outright with four of them being pretty big upsets. I know free contest have thousands of entrants across the valley, but who could actually say with a straight face that they liked all those teams to win with no points.

I went upstairs to the little cove bar and had a few of their $1 beers and started talking football with another guy who plays in the contest who later informs me that his friend was the person who won the $30,000 all alone in week 5. He revealed the secret to his friends amazing success for the week which turns out to be a matter of just good fortune and luck, lottery style.

The new convenient contest kiosks that Coast Casinos introduced this year have a quick pick option. This player keyed the Bears and Monday night favorite on all his entries and then quick picked the rest of the games. He liked the Bears over the Panthers on all of them and also wanted to have the Monday hedge option with the favorite so he could bet the money line on the underdog Monday should he go 13-0 on Sunday.

His strategy worked to perfection as only three cards were perfect going into Monday night’s game. The other two perfect cards had the underdog Vikings while he had the favored Jets. Knowing that if the Jets won he would win the entire $30,000, he placed $7,000 in money line bets on the Vikings at +190 to ensure he made some money regardless who won. His net profit after the Jets game was +$23,000, not bad for only handicapping one game.

His strategy of only picking Monday night favorites in the no points contest should be followed by everyone just because it keeps your hedge options more open at getting plus money rather than laying a price. Quick picking every pick is another matter, but in the year of the upsets, it’s probably not a bad idea.

Coast Casinos Pick the Pros contest is a free weekly contest that is still taking sign-ups.

Mike T's Week 4 Picks - Time To Pick on The Patriots Defense Again

by Mike T.

Panthers @ Saints Over 44.5
The Saints shouldn't have a problem throwing against the Panthers secondary and I doubt they have a tough time getting in the endzone. I also expect the Panthers to get a few big runs on the Saints defense while the game is still close.
Saints 35 Panthers 21

Steelers money line -135 vs Ravens
I like the Steelers at home and layed the 135 as opposed to laying 2.5 -120, just too much value there. I basically bought 2.5 points for 15 cents. The Ravens had had a tough time scoring so far and now face the best defense on the road. I don't expect the Steelers to light it up either but I do like them to win the turnover battle.
Steelers 16 Ravens 14

Dolphins +1 vs Patriots
As I wrote in week 1 the Patriots defense is not going to be very good this year. This is especially true in the 2nd half( keep that in mind if think you can find a good halftime line against the Pats all year). They are young and not very deep. I think the Dolphins keep this one close in the first half and run away with it in the second.
Dolphins 31 Patriots 20

I also took a little Jaguars +7 and the Redskins +6 as well as taking them in a small money line parlay.

Roberts Week 4 NFL Selections: Chargers The Best Bet of the Week

Here’s a look at a few of the games I bet this week along with a few I wanted to, but didn’t.

Ravens +2 ½ @ Pittsburgh: Mike Tomlin is 5-2 against the Ravens, including the playoffs, but I like the Charlie Batch record as a starter against Baltimore better which is 0-1.

Jets -5 ½ @ Buffalo: Both teams are showing more offense, but only one plays with a strong defense every week. I’m Pleasantly surprised that Mark Sanchez doesn’t have any interceptions yet.

Seahawks -1 ½ @ St. Louis: I’m not a big fan of the Seahawks on the road, but I refuse to believe that the Rams have turned the corner as much as they have shown. I’ll take the risk to find out if Seattle truly is the better team in this one.

Chargers -8 ½ vs. Cardinals: This looks like a re-run from the last time the Chargers came home from a road loss, as well as the last time the Cardinals came off a win and traveled to Atlanta. I could see this be as big a lopsided win as there is on Sunday.

Giants -3 ½ vs. Bears: If this were last season, the Bears would be 1-2 and Jay Cutler would have at least 6 interceptions. Because the Giants have looked so bad, this is a gift lay in value against an overrated Bears team. Cutler doesn’t get lucky with bad passes this week.

Games I’m still contemplating:
Denver +6 ½ @ Tennessee: Through three games, I still haven’t seen anyone stop the Broncos offense except themselves in the red zone. Tough spot going east, but I think they’ll give the Titans a run and make it tighter than most think. Small money line play is what I keep mulling over.

49ers +6 ½ @ Atlanta: If the 49ers had won last week, I’d love the Falcons, but the desperation aspect has me siding with them despite traveling to east time zone. I was thinking money line play as well.

Redskins +6 @ Philadelphia: It’s all Michael Vick now. Everything is on his shoulders. Can he beat down the Skins with the former 11 year starter of the Eagles? I don’t think so.  I’m believing in the story book return of Donovan McNabb this week because I don’t think Vick is that guy, or the leader.

I wouldn’t bet these myself but would lean towards the Browns +3, Green Bay -14, Saints -13, Colts -7, Oakland +3 and Miami +1. Good Luck this week!

LVRJ Challenge Selections and Record

Roberts Week 3 NFL Selections: Going Against A First-Time Starter in Carolina

I went 3-3-1 in my listed plays here last week, but somehow I went 4-1 in my listed plays for the Las Vegas Review Journal Challenge Contest where I am now 7-3 through two weeks. I have a lot of games I like this week and feel good about them, but have to narrow them down. However, I’m still going to roll with seven games again.

Top Play of the Week:
Bengals -3 @ Carolina: This game opened -2 and jumped all the way to -3 ½ until getting buy back. I do expect the Panthers to play well with Jimmy Clausen -- better than Matt Moore -- but I think the Bengals defense is going to give him just enough trouble on a few series that Clausen will be forced into making a few plays that turn into easy scores for Cincy and change the tide of the game. PICK: Bengals 30, Panthers 20

Next Best Plays:
Jets + 2 ½ @ Miami: This should be an ugly game with the ground game getting lots of work for both sides. Under 35 looks like a nice play as well, but I lean towards the Jets on this one led by Shonn Greene. PICK: Jets 14, Dolphins 10

49ers -2 ½ @ Kansas City: Yes, it is possible for the 0-2 49ers to fold on the road again like they did week one at Seattle, but I feel they’ll resemble the team that fought hard Monday night with Frank Gore doing as he pleases. You’ve at least a do or die mentality going for you with San Francisco. PICK: 49ers 24, Chiefs 13

Cowboys +3 (-120) @ Houston: This is another do or die team. The Cowboys have looked pretty bad in both games this season with a terrible running game. I believe the running game is what gets them over the hump this week against a team that has been very fortunate. I’m not big on Wade Phillips when his back is up against the wall, in fact he’s the worst under pressure, but the Cowboys win despite him. Good money line play as well. PICK: Cowboys 27, Texans 21

Bottom Tier Game:
Broncos +6 vs. Colts: What do you know, my first home team I like and it happens to be against the Colts. Knowshon Moreno is out this week but Correll Buckhalter should fill in nicely and do plenty of running against the Colts suspect rush defense. I’m not saying Buckhatler can go for over 200 yards like Arian Foster did to the Colts in week one, but he should get over 100. I always like taking the Broncos from any era getting points at home and this game is a bit inflated due to “The Colts are Back” headlines from last week. Kyle Orton makes enough plays to keep the clock running and sustain drives. I played the money line on this one. PICK: Broncos 30, Colts 23

Bet Just Because I Couldn’t Resist:

Buccaneers +3 (-120) vs. Steelers: What a stupid play this is, right? The mighty Steelers defense against Josh Freeman? Well, I only like this because I have the feeling it will be a 13-13 game late with the Steelers offense not being able to muster anything, having already capitalized throughout the game on Freeman’s mistakes. I swear I have envisioned Freeman marching his team down the field late in the fourth-quarter making big plays with the clock ticking and the loud Tampa crowd pumping him up. The Steelers can’t keep getting away with no offense, can they? They have already exceeded expectations, week five is coming soon. I’ll take the money line and the points in this one. PICK: Buccaneers 16, Steelers 13

Lions +11 @ Vikings: Which offense looks better right now? And what team feels good about their play thus far despite being 0-2. The Lions are loose and having fun while the Vikings are feeling the weight of expectations that come with being a team that came within a play of making the Super Bowl last year. If the Vikings were smart, they’d just hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson and make Brett Favre hand off with no audibles. Favre just doesn’t have it yet. He also doesn’t have his best receiver and no one can seem to find Bernard Berrian. I actually see the potential for an upset in this game. PICK: Vikings 23, Lions 21

Okay, so there they are. Those are my plays this week. If I had to have my arm twisted on the rest of this weeks action, here’s what I’d have: Giants -3, Bills +14 ½, Browns +10 ½, Saints -3 ½, Rams +3 ½, Jaguars +2 ½, Chargers -5, Raiders + 4 ½, and Bears +3.

Good luck on the week and hopefully some of the non-logic I listed helps your betting, either on or against my plays.

My Plays in the LVRJ Challenge

Roberts Week One NFL Selections: More Than Usual This Week Beginning With the Jaguars

Here are my plays for the week. I usually play only two to three a week but was so excited about the season starting that I couldn't help myself. After looking at each match-up with spreads attached to them since April 29 and watching each team closely, I feel pretty good about these games which I am also mixing a few round-robin parlays with as well as straight.

Top Play
Jaguars -3 vs Broncos (laid -2 1/2 early, but it's -3 at shops everywhere now. Denver 1-4 in 2009 traveling East and the one win was Stokely's Hail Mary tipped catch and run vs Bengals)

The Rest
Steelers +2 vs Falcons (Don't like Michael Turner on grass and love Steelers as a home dog)
Bengals +5 1/2 @ Patriots (Cincy should control game tempo with Benson)
Titans -6 vs Raiders (I know, just like everyone else)
Chargers -4 1/2 @ Chiefs (Everyone likes this one too, but can't make a case for KC being better)

Still Thinking of Playing
Bears -6 1/2 vs Lions (Cutler and Beras love the Lions, blowout wins last year with Cutler 6 TD's and no picks)
Browns +3 @ Buccaneers (Delhomme has the Browns offense looking like a complete opposite from 2009)

My write-ups for all the games is now posted in Sunday's Las Vegas Review-Journal, click here to read.


My Five Picks and Others in the weekly NFL Challenge - Las Vegas Review-Journal

MIke T's Week One NFL Selections: Cincy, Indy, & San Fran Looking Good!

by Mike T.

I'm back for my second season here at Roberts Football Notes looking to continue on the success I had last year(click older posts to see my selections). I used a strategy of picking the three best games I could find in a week(mostly underdogs). I'm going to stick with that same basic strategy throughout the year, although I do like a couple small favorite this week. I will also try to add a few more Monday night games as well this year. So let's get ready for week one and good luck to all.

Bengals +5 @ Patriots

The Bengals are 5 point dogs to a Patriots team that I don't think will be very good this year. We all know the Pats will be fine offensively but it's their defense that I believe will struggle throughout the year. The Pats only have two starters returning from their Superbowl team and have replaced them with young and inexperienced talent. They lost DE Ty Warren and CB Leigh Bodden for the season. They are starting a rookie and a second year player at the corners. Their just isn't much talent or leadership anywhere on this Pats defense.

The Bengals have all of their starters returning including the five massive offensive linemen that paved the way for Cedric Benson and protected Carson Palmer. They have two of the very best corners in the game in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph and have added Pacman Jones to play nickel. This could be a problem for Brady, Moss, Welker and questionable Edelman.

I think Benson has a big game on the ground while T.O. and Ocho feast on that secondary.The Bengals come away with a win on the road.
Bengals 31 Patriots 17

Colts -2.5 @ Texans
Many people seem to think that this is the year that the Texans turn the page and become a contender. I don't see it that way. Like the Patriots, the Texans haven't done much to improve defensively. They let veteran CB Donta Robinson go due to salary issues and replaced him with (R) CB Kareem Jackson. They will also be without LB Brian Cushing for the first four weeks. And that's about it.

The Colts continue to be a well oiled machine. The defense is intact and a healthy Freeny, Mathis, and Sanders is something the Colts missed for most of the '09 season while still going to the Superbowl. On offense, all of Manning's weapons are back plus a healthy Anthony Gonzalez and change of pace back in Donald Brown.

We will see some scoring from both of these great offenses but their seems to be a lot of value in laying less than a FG with the Colts.
Colts 28 Texans 21

49ers -3 @ Seahawks

The 49ers are the team to beat in the NFC west in my opinion. I really think they have a chance to be a 12-4 team and might get a bye week come playoff time. With an improved offensive line and a legitimate threat in the return game the 49ers addressed their biggest off season needs. They could have one of the best defenses in football and some very nice weapons on offense. Frank Gore and Vernon Davis may have career years.

It just doesn't seem to me that the Seahawks are ready for week one. They will be without tackle Russel Okung and their offensive line coach retired just a few days ago. They let TJ Houshmandzadeh walk and have finally decided that Justin Forsett will be the starting RB. Pete Carroll has his work cut out for him.
49ers 34 Seahawks 10

Roberts NFL Selection: Patriots Get it Done in Texas

Patriots+7 vs Texans: Both teams have reeled off 3 straight wins, but the Texans have had the fortune of playing dead teams in Seattle and St. Louis during their streak. Look for The Patriots to maintain their winning attitude and carry it over to the playoffs with a quality performance at Houston playing the majority of their starters until the win is secure. The Texans are just one of those teams that have been snake bitten with bad luck all season and the Patriots are in the perfect position to finally put them out of their misery. This is a great money line situation with the Patriots getting +280.

Mike T's Week 14 Picks: Two Favorites and a Total

by Mike T.

It was another great week for me as I went 3-0 again putting me at 27-12 for the season. It would have been absolutely outstanding had the Redskins won the game outright. I took the three teams with the points of course but I also made a small parlay with all of them on the money line. That 3 teamer would have gotten me 20-1 but as I wrote the Skins found a way to blow yet another game in the end.

I would like to take this opportunity to offer my condolences to the Hope Johnson family. Hope was a die hard Giants fan who sadly passed away this week. Many Giants players, staff and fans (myself included) knew what kind of warm and passionate person and fan she was. She will be sorely missed.

Texans -6 vs Seahawks
Seattle comes into this game with a 1-5 road record. The Seahawks have been blown out quite often on the road this year and I don't see why this game should be any different. The Texans still have an outside shot at the playoffs if they can string a few wins together. As I've said earlier, Houston only plays one good half of football but that's all they'll need. I like the Texans to roll in this one .
Texans 31 Seahawks 10

Jaguars -2.5 vs Dolphins
This game should give us a better indication of what the AFC playoff picture looks like. If the season ended today the Jags would be in the playoffs. Unfortunately for them it doesn't and they have to play an unpredictable Dolphin team. Jacksonville is 5-1 at home and should be fired up for this playoff type game. I don't expect this one to be a blowout but I do think the Jags will come out on top.
Jaguars 23 Dolphins 16

Bengals at Vikings over 43.5
The Vikes are starting to get banged up in their back seven. They suffered a huge loss when EJ Johnson went down with a gruesome leg injury and is now out for the year. They also have a safety and three corners that are also questionable or worse. I think we'll see Carson Palmer come out firing against this secondary while Favre might have to do the same if the Vikes fall behind. I'm not sure if I like the over more than I like the Bengals, but I bet the over and I'm not going back to the book.
Bengals 34 Vikings 28

Mike T's Week 12 Picks: Titans On a Roll

by Mike T.

Had the Giants maintained their 2 score lead against the Falcons late in the 4th quarter, I would have had another fantastic week. The Raiders (almost called the score) and Eagles did get their for me though and that puts me at 22-11 for the season.

Titans -2.5 vs Cardinals
After the Titans first win Chris Johnson said he could see them winning 10 in a row. I'm now a believer. I expect the see Tennessee run all over the Cards D while controlling the clock and keeping Warner on the sidelines.
Titans 27 Cardinals 20

49ers -3.5 vs Jaguars
The Jags are a surprising 6-4 this season but in my opinion haven't beaten one quality team this year. They've struggled to beat teams like Buffalo, KC and St Louis in overtime and all at home. Now they have a long road trip to SF against a tough scrappy Niners team. I think the 49er defense will shut down MJD and win this one rather easily. I wouldn't be surprised to see Alex Smith have a big game as well.
49ers 31 Jags 10

Patriots at New Orleans over 56
This game has all the makings of a classic. Two extremely high powered offenses with slightly above defenses that can be scored on. I can't see how this game isn't a shootout from the word go. This could be a lot like the Colts- Pats game from a few weeks ago.
Saints 41 Pats 38

Roberts Pro Football Selections for Week 12: Bears & Eagles Look Like Good Plays

Eagles -9 vs. Washington: Crucial game for Philly as they begin their second go-around with division rivals within the next six games. They have to stay as close as possible to Dallas within the division while keeping pace with Green Bay and ahead of the Giants in the wild card chase. The Redskins meanwhile are looking to get their first road win of the season.

Bears +11 @ Vikings: The Bears slim chance of making the playoffs rest with this game. It’s do or die time and I like a team in a position where the entire season is on the line, and they know it, going against a very comfortable team in cruise control where everything has come almost too easy.

Seahawks -3 @ Rams: What a match-up this is, we have the Seahawks who are 0-5 on the road and the Rams who are 0-5 at home. Seattle hasn’t even covered in any of their road losses while at least the Rams have gone 2-3 getting points at home as they are this week. Look for Matt Hasselbeck to have a d ecent game with the Rams not being able to keep up with Kyle Boller starting.

Cardinals/Titans OVER 46: This game could come to a shootout. Not many teams are better than Arizona on the road this season. The Cards are 4-1 against the number on the road going against a Titans team that looks like one of the better teams in the league right now. The Cardinals will not be able to stop the run. Despite their early season success against the run, they have allowed two straight backs to get over 100 yards. They’ll get a heavy dose of Chris Johnson while the Titans defense will be hard pressed to slow the Cards passing attack.

I had an opinion on the Patriots Monday night, but there are too many in agreement which is taking me off the game. The Saints opened 3-point favorites and are down to 1.5 now. Even worse is that the parlay counts in Las Vegas Books are already at a 5 to 1 clip in favor of the Pats. If I had to choose now, I'd go with the home team just because there is too much weight on the bandwagon which always makes one of the wheels fall off.

Happy Thanksgiving: Three Roberts Plays for Thursday & Only One Favorite

Happy Thanksgiving to Everyone out there and hopefully I can help to get some smiling turkey on your face before the rush comes in. Don't sweat the in-laws and don't sweat the poor carving. Hopefully after the Cowboys game, you're sitting nice waiting on the Broncos to come in for either a money line play or winning on the points.

Here are three games I'm looking at for the Holiday weekend. Should those games get there, it won't be a Happy holliday for many bettors, but every bookmaker in the world will show a profit. Usually the player gets there on Thanksgiving, but let's not hope this week, unless you're the Player.

Green Bay -11 @ Detroit
Oakland +13.5 @ Dallas
Denver +7 vs Giants

Mike T's Week 11 Picks: One Dog & Two Favorites For Your Pocket

by Mike T.

It could have been another great week for me if the Dolphins maintained the two score lead they had into the 4th quarter. In the past four weeks I've gone 10-2 with my only two losses being the Dolphins in weeks 7 & 10. That's the way it goes sometimes. I am now 20-10 for the year.

This is a real ugly looking week for me as once again, there are eight teams that are favorites by more than 8 points. There is no doubt that at least one of these big dogs get there on the money line. So here goes....

Raiders +9.5 vs Bengals
I've done quite well with the Bengals often this season. This week however, I'm going against them. The Bengals are on the road for the second straight week after a hard fought win in Pittsburgh. They'll be without star RB Cedric Benson and they do have a bit of a tendency to play down to lesser opponents. The Raiders have FINALLY made the long overdue and much needed switch at QB. Some of the whispers around the locker room seem to indicate that the players are in favor of this move. Gradkowski seems to be a much better student of the game and spend a lot more time studying film and taking notes than Russell does. I expect this team to be fired up and rally around their new starting QB. Look for a close game here with the Raiders having a shot at a late game winning FG.
Raiders 19 Bengals 17

Giants -7 vs Falcons
After a 5-0 start the Giants are now 5-4 and if they have any dreams of making the playoffs this is the game to get back on the winning track. The Giants have had two weeks to prepare for the Turner less Falcons. Former Falcon, now Giant LB Michael Boley may have had a lot to do with helping coaches prepare for this game. I think Brandon Jacobs will have a bigger role this week and for the rest of the year as it is now starting to get cold in the northeast. The biggest obstacle for the Giants will be to contain Tony Gonzalez. If they can hold him to modest numbers the Giants should win this one by two or more scores.
Giants 27 Falcons 13

Eagles -3 at Bears
The line on this game seems about right but I don't think Philly is going to have a hard time beating this team badly. Philly is on a two games skid and like the Giants if they want to see the postseason this is one of those games they just have to win. Jay Cutler has been downright awful especially in night games. They been having trouble scoring on offense and they've given up over 40 points in two of their last four games. Eagles roll.
Eagles 31 Bears 14

Roberts Week 11 Pro Football Selections: Oakland Leads List of 5 Games

Raiders +9 vs. Bengals: A couple of key components have made this an attractive wager on the Raiders, No JaMarcus Russell starting for the Raiders and No Chris Benson running for the Bengals. Each have been intricate in the stagnant awful play of one program and the reversal of fortunes for the other. The change at quarterback for the Raiders will give them a chance to stay in the game and compete for the win, which hasn’t been the case in most of the games Russell has played because he isn’t dedicated enough. Bruce Gradkowski may not have the arm of Russell, but has much more football sense. Look for a possible upset as the Raider faithful gets something to really cheer about this week.

Lions -3 vs. Browns: Maybe Eric Mangini’s offense will open up a bit more because their playing the Lions, but chances are he’ll resort to his usual conservative Big-10 football approach. If Mangini does decide to throw further than 15 yards down field, the Browns are likely to be out of their element because they never do it and won’t have enough practice to execute. The Lions have been competitive in spurts and love to show off their QB’s gun at any chance. Look for big plays between Stafford and Johnson this week and a Lions win by 14.

Patriots -10.5 vs. Jets: Bill Belichick had a tough week in the press and he’s really not happy. He’s also got a grudge going against the Jets and their Coach after the week 2 trash talking. The Patriots lost that first game as they were getting Tom Brady acclimated back into the system. It’s safe to say the Patriots are hitting on all cylinders offensively now and knowing Belichick’s style, he’ll look to pound the Jets with no mercy to make a statement. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots put 40 on the board.

Chargers -4 vs. Broncos: It appears that Chris Simms will be starting for Denver which spells bad news for a team trying to stop a three-game losing streak. Since Denver started 6-0 after beating the Chargers on a Monday night, the two teams have gone in opposite directions with the Chargers winning four straight. San Diego may have been tough to beat even with Kyle Orton starting just because of how well their Defense has played during the win streak. Denver will have their moments in this game led by Knowshon Moreno, but the high powered offense led by Phillip Rivers and a rejuvenated LaDainian Tomlinson will put too many on the board for Denver to keep up.

Titans +5 @ Houston: This was the game that started the demise of the Titans back in week 2. The Titans handled the Texans all game piling on yardage led by Chris Johnson going wild, but gave up too much late to Matt Shaub and Andre Johnson. The Titans are now recharged and playing inspired ball since Vince Young has been in the starting lineup. They have won three in a row and done with ball control and a positive turnover ratio. Look for a high scoring game with the Titans winning by a field goal.