Thursday, November 18, 2010

Week 11 NFL Betting Trends


CHICAGO at MIAMI (Thursday, November 18)...Dolphins have now covered last 2 at home as they might be starting to turn around Sparano’s previous good road/bad home pattern (Miami had been 4-11 vs. line previous 15 at Sun Life Stadium). Bears "under" 6-2-1 TY, now "under" 16-8-1 in the Jay Cutler era since LY. Tech edge-slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.
OAKLAND at PITTSBURGH...Teams don’t meet every year but Raiders have covered last 3 meetings including major upset at Heinz Field LY as 15-point dog. Oakland has covered its last 3 TY, and Raiders "over" 3-1 away TY. Steel "over" 51-28 last 79 at Heinz Field. Tech edge-slight to Raiders and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
HOUSTON at NY JETS... Texans have now failed to cover last 5 TY. Houston also "over" 8-3 last 11 on board. Jets winning the close ones that Texans aren’t. Jets now "over" 7-2 TY and "over" 11-3 last 14 since late LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Jets, based on "totals" and team trends.

BALTIMORE at CAROLINA... Carolina now no covers last 3 or 7 of 9 TY. Panthers also "under" 3-1 at home in 2010 and now "under" 20-8 at Charlotte since 2007. Note Ravens 0-1 as road chalk TY and just 1-3 in role since LY. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Ravens, based on "totals" trends and Panther woes.
WASHINGTON at TENNESSEE... Titans bounced back with wins and covers after first two losses but fell short last week vs. Dolphins. Titans are also "over" 13-5-1 last 19 at LP Field. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
DETROIT at DALLAS... Not much home-field edge for Jerry’s Cowboys TY, 0-4 SU and vs. line at Arlington. Lions, however, continue amazing pointspread run with covers in 8 of first 9 TY. Jerry Jones also "over" 4-0 at home TY, and Lions "over" 5 of last 6 TY. Tech edge-Lions and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA... Note that last five now "over" in this series, and Vikes "over" 5 of last 6 TY, although Pack "under" first 4 on road TY. Childress now no covers last 4 TY and 1-5 last 6 vs. number. Tech edge-Packers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
BUFFALO at CINCINNATI... Cincy 0-2 as home chalk TY, 0-8 in role since LY. Now 5-19 overall as chalk since ‘07. Cincy also "under" 21-10 last 31 at home. For what it’s worth, Marvin Lewis 0-4 SU in career vs. Buffalo (no covers in last 3, althiugh this is first meeting since ‘07). Bills have covered last 3 as road dog TY. Tech edge-Bills and "under," based on team and series trends.
CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE... Brownies have won and covered by identical 23-17 scores the past two years. Cleveland 11-4-1 vs. line last 16 on board since mid ‘09, a full season’s worth of games. Browns now "over" last 4 TY, Jags "over" 7-2 in 2010 and "over" 8-2 last 10 since late ‘09. Tech edge-"Over" and Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.
ARIZONA at KANSAS CITY... Whisenhunt only 1-3 as road dog TY but still 12-4 last 16 as dog. Cards "over" 8-2 last 10 since late LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.
SEATTLE at NEW ORLEANS... Seahawks have covered 2 of alst 3 on road after dropping 10 of previous 11 away vs. spread. Saints have won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 as they shake from their own extended spread doldrums. Tech edge-slight to Saints, based on Seahawks road woes.
ATLANTA at ST. LOUIS... Recalling old NFC West days pre-2002. Rams have won and covered last 4 at home TY and have covered 6 of last 7 overall prior to SF on Sunday. Falcs have covered 5 of last 7 away and have gone "over" last 4 TY. Tech edge-Rams, based on recent home marks.
TAMPA BAY at SAN FRANCISCO... Bucs have covered first 4 on road TY and have now covered 6 straight and 8 of last 9 away. Singletary, however, 9-3-2 vs. line last 14 as host.Tech edge-slight to Bucs, based on recent trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ENGLAND... Peyton Manning is now 5-1 SU last 6 vs. Belichick after losing previous 6 to Patriots. Belichick has covered the last 2 years after dropping previous 4 on line to Manning. Colts 12-6-1 vs. line last 19 on road. Tech edge-Colts, based on team and "totals" trends.
NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA... Recent edge to Andy Reid, who has won and covered last four vs. G-Men. But NY has won and covered big its last 3 on road TY. Coughlin "over" 8-3 last 11 on road. Birds "over" 18-9 last 27 since late ‘08. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
DENVER at SAN DIEGO (Monday, November 22)...Broncos have actually split the last 2 years vs. SD and won a Monday nighter at Qualcomm LY, wearing the old-style unis, 34-23. Still, Bolts 6-1-1 vs. line last 8 in series, and Broncos have only covered 2 of last 12 meetings since ‘04. "Overs" 6-2 last 8 in series, and Denver "over" last 7 as visitor. Norv "over" 9-4 at home since LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Bolts, based on "totals" and series trends.

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