By Micah Roberts
Gaming Today Las Vegas
Of the 12 Sunday games, eight of them had an initial line of minus-3 or lower making them essential pick’em games because they were at home. Of those eight games, six of the favorites won.
In a normal NFL regular season, results like that would have made the players lots of money. Laying small favorites has always been a favorite past time of recreational bettors, but this year with all the jumbled ratings and weekly upsets, things are much different. Bettors are thinking harder than ever and trying to utilize some of the information gained through the first seven weeks to come up with strong leans and the sports books are the beneficiaries of all their indecisiveness.
Of the five underdogs that covered, four of them won outright led by the Jaguars and Packers who were each getting 6 to 6 ½ points. The Dolphins were driven to pick’em by kickoff and won at Cincinnati while Tampa Bay won at Arizona as a 3-point dog. The only underdog that covered and lost were the Bills at Kansas City.
The Sharps did well with the Bills though. They bought the Bills at plus-7 ½ pushing the game to 7. They also did well with the Chargers and Dolphins on the day, but the sports books absorbed the Sharp plays easily as the small money made their day.
The popular plays with small money in parlays off the board and parlay cards were the Broncos, Steelers, Titans, Patriots and Rams. Only two of the five covered making it the eighth straight week that the little guy lost.
After watching this weeks games, it looks the tide may be turning a little bit. All 12 games this week had the home team favored (I listed the 49ers as the home team even though it was played on a neutral field in London) and seven of those won. That’s a good sign for the bettor who likes to play favorites. The ratings are settling and there are eight weeks of data to go off of.
This weeks games have four with spreads at a touchdown or higher with seven road favorites. It’s time to use those ratings that devalue favorites now to your advantage and side with some of the favorites again. Start chipping away at the sports books and get back some of that they money they’ve been holding for you. Be confident, be strong, be brave and make your selections with conviction this week. No wavering with the picks. If you have a tough time with either side of a game, then pass. Go on to the next one. You will own week nine of the NFL season, I can feel it.
Welcome Back Mike
The Eagles will have Michael Vick running the show this week, a month after suffering torn rib cartilage against the Redskins. The Eagles have a huge game against the Colts that in some ways will determine their fate on the season. There’s a big difference between being 5-3 or 4-4. For Vick’s talents to be fully utilized this week, he’ll need DeSean Jackson back in the lineup. Jackson is questionable, but did make his first appearance in practice last week.
Well Traveled Jones
Chiefs running back Thomas Jones became the first player in NFL history to rush for 500 yards in a season with five different teams. It’s a testament to just how consistent Jones is no matter what system he get plugged into. He’s currently on track to get his sixth straight 1,000 yard season. The teams he’s been on include the Cardinals, Buccaneers, Bears, Jets and no the Chiefs.
Player of the Week
David Garrard totaled five touchdowns in the Jaguars 35-17 win at Dallas. He totaled 260 yards passing with four touchdown passes and one rushing score and helped his team dominate the Cowboys in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score indicates.