Friday, September 24, 2010

Roberts Week 3 NFL Selections: Going Against A First-Time Starter in Carolina

I went 3-3-1 in my listed plays here last week, but somehow I went 4-1 in my listed plays for the Las Vegas Review Journal Challenge Contest where I am now 7-3 through two weeks. I have a lot of games I like this week and feel good about them, but have to narrow them down. However, I’m still going to roll with seven games again.

Top Play of the Week:
Bengals -3 @ Carolina: This game opened -2 and jumped all the way to -3 ½ until getting buy back. I do expect the Panthers to play well with Jimmy Clausen -- better than Matt Moore -- but I think the Bengals defense is going to give him just enough trouble on a few series that Clausen will be forced into making a few plays that turn into easy scores for Cincy and change the tide of the game. PICK: Bengals 30, Panthers 20

Next Best Plays:
Jets + 2 ½ @ Miami: This should be an ugly game with the ground game getting lots of work for both sides. Under 35 looks like a nice play as well, but I lean towards the Jets on this one led by Shonn Greene. PICK: Jets 14, Dolphins 10

49ers -2 ½ @ Kansas City: Yes, it is possible for the 0-2 49ers to fold on the road again like they did week one at Seattle, but I feel they’ll resemble the team that fought hard Monday night with Frank Gore doing as he pleases. You’ve at least a do or die mentality going for you with San Francisco. PICK: 49ers 24, Chiefs 13

Cowboys +3 (-120) @ Houston: This is another do or die team. The Cowboys have looked pretty bad in both games this season with a terrible running game. I believe the running game is what gets them over the hump this week against a team that has been very fortunate. I’m not big on Wade Phillips when his back is up against the wall, in fact he’s the worst under pressure, but the Cowboys win despite him. Good money line play as well. PICK: Cowboys 27, Texans 21

Bottom Tier Game:
Broncos +6 vs. Colts: What do you know, my first home team I like and it happens to be against the Colts. Knowshon Moreno is out this week but Correll Buckhalter should fill in nicely and do plenty of running against the Colts suspect rush defense. I’m not saying Buckhatler can go for over 200 yards like Arian Foster did to the Colts in week one, but he should get over 100. I always like taking the Broncos from any era getting points at home and this game is a bit inflated due to “The Colts are Back” headlines from last week. Kyle Orton makes enough plays to keep the clock running and sustain drives. I played the money line on this one. PICK: Broncos 30, Colts 23

Bet Just Because I Couldn’t Resist:
Buccaneers +3 (-120) vs. Steelers: What a stupid play this is, right? The mighty Steelers defense against Josh Freeman? Well, I only like this because I have the feeling it will be a 13-13 game late with the Steelers offense not being able to muster anything, having already capitalized throughout the game on Freeman’s mistakes. I swear I have envisioned Freeman marching his team down the field late in the fourth-quarter making big plays with the clock ticking and the loud Tampa crowd pumping him up. The Steelers can’t keep getting away with no offense, can they? They have already exceeded expectations, week five is coming soon. I’ll take the money line and the points in this one. PICK: Buccaneers 16, Steelers 13

Lions +11 @ Vikings: Which offense looks better right now? And what team feels good about their play thus far despite being 0-2. The Lions are loose and having fun while the Vikings are feeling the weight of expectations that come with being a team that came within a play of making the Super Bowl last year. If the Vikings were smart, they’d just hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson and make Brett Favre hand off with no audibles. Favre just doesn’t have it yet. He also doesn’t have his best receiver and no one can seem to find Bernard Berrian. I actually see the potential for an upset in this game. PICK: Vikings 23, Lions 21

Okay, so there they are. Those are my plays this week. If I had to have my arm twisted on the rest of this weeks action, here’s what I’d have: Giants -3, Bills +14 ½, Browns +10 ½, Saints -3 ½, Rams +3 ½, Jaguars +2 ½, Chargers -5, Raiders + 4 ½, and Bears +3.

Good luck on the week and hopefully some of the non-logic I listed helps your betting, either on or against my plays.

My Plays in the LVRJ Challenge

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