by Micah Roberts
“The Seahawks really saved us," said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay, “We did okay in the morning games, but the Packers game was a big decision that didn’t go our way making the 49ers game pretty important heading into the night game.”
The Dolphins game was heavily bet by the public on parlays and they were sitting on the spread with a 13-10 lead late in the fourth quarter when Bills long snapper Garrison Sanborn snapped the ball out of bounds for a safety. The 15-10 margin either immediately made much of the public winners or set the stage for the late showdown for a big payday on three and four team parlays.
“We really didn’t need that safety,“ said Kornegay in somewhat of a joking, but serious tone.
The first nine games of the day still showed a small profit for the day, but the perfect storm was brewing with huge risk tied to both the Packers and 49ers.
“It looked as though we might have been a helped a bit with a Michael Vick miracle,” said MGM Resorts Race and Sports Director Jay Rood, “He came really close.”
The Packers were favored by three-points all week and while there wasn’t any sharp risk involved in the game, nearly 85% of the ticket counts on the game had the Packers. It looked like Green Bay would walk away with an easy win, but Vick made it interesting with some sharp passing and running, looking the old Vick for the first time since his Falcons days.
The one saving grace for the day, the difference between a small winning day and being close to a push, rested with the Seahawks. Nearly 75% of all tickets bet on that game had the 49ers and it was the final leg of many folks parlays making the risk much greater for the game than the actual win would be.
The Cowboys losing to Washington in the late game would be the cherry on top of a decent first week of pro football for the sports books. Whether the late penalty occurred or not, negating a Cowboys touchdown as time expired, the books would do well simply because Dallas wouldn’t cover the 3 ½-points and the game stayed under 40 points.
The first week of action was fair and balanced for everyone involved. The bettors won a little bit and the house kept a little bit equivalent, or just a little higher, to what the juice is for betting a straight game. Neither side got buried which is a good thing and keeps the cycle of interest going with confidence heading into week two action.
Matt Stafford hurt his shoulder in last weeks Bears game and is questionable for Sunday’s against the Eagles. Should Stafford be unable to go, Shaun Hill will take over the reigns. Panthers quarterback Matt Moore left the Giants game with a head injury after an unproductive afternoon. Should the league and team cautious approach occur like they did last year and rest Moore, enter rookie Jimmy Clausen into the mix. Clausen actually looked better in pre-season than Moore. The Eagles Kevin Kolb also had concussion symptoms in the first half their game against the Packers with Michael Vick taking over. Prior to being injured, Kolb was only able to complete 5 short passes for 24 yards.
The Good, The Bad and the Ugly
The Lions played well even without Matt Stafford in the second half and got the cover. They deserved to win and I‘m still unsure about whatever that rule is that took away Calvin Johnson’s late score. The Raiders looked bad in their loss but showed signs of improving while the Chiefs play Monday night. Of the seven teams, I feel comfortable that the Browns, Rams, Lions and Bucs will be much more competitive than 2009 and make bettors think twice about what used to be an easy decision of betting against them.
Player of the Week
If you had the NFL’s top passing attack in 2009 but failed to make the playoffs thanks to losing to division rival Indianapolis twice in the fourth-quarter, the only natural thing to do would appear to try the opposite like run more, right? That’s exactly what Gary Kubiak’s offensive game plan was for Sunday’s 34-24 win over the Colts. Matt Shaub only had 17 pass attempts while Arian Foster carried the ball 33 times for 231 yards and three touchdowns. Foster’s big day cemented his status as the Texan’s feature back and could be a prelude of more things to come for a prosperous 2010 season.
No Show of the Week
This Weeks Games
I like the way Steelers quarterback Dennis Dixon plays, but I also like him at home better. This week the Steelers head into Nashville to play the Titans and will be a 7-point dog or higher by kickoff. The Titans will have the support of everyone who had them last week along with everyone who saw that Steelers needed overtime to beat the Falcons at home. Look for the Titans to win by 13.
The Derek Anderson era has begun in Arizona and they are 1-0; take that Matt Leinart. But before we start to think this team is ready for the Super Bowl again, let’s not forget that they struggled with turnovers and barely beat the Rams last week. Arizona showed me little and I’m feeling pretty good about the Falcons chances of winning by 17 in their home opener.