By Micah Roberts
The line got as high as 6 ½-points at many books as they bobbed and weaved through all the smoke signals and tweets of misinformation until finally settling at 4 ½ leading into this week. The public money came in support of the Saints early in the week with enough cash cumulatively to count for a worthy move to 5 and eventually 5 ½ by Wednesday.
Moving to 5 and 5 ½ was easy an easy move according to any standard bookmaking text because those are the deadest of all numbers. The loneliest of numbers in NFL margin of victory from one through eight is 5. In traditional bookmaking philosophy, because the number is so dead, it doesn’t even take a full limit wager to move off the number. It’s almost like if the tidal wave of action is coming -- which it looked like -- then get closer to -6 and let them lay that.
That standard bookmaking gets thrown out the window when a team misses an extra-point in a low-scoring game and then the same top drafted fantasy football kicker misses two easy field-goals. That’s exactly what happened in Thursday night’s kickoff to the 2010 NFL season when the Saints won by the deadest of all numbers, five, in a 14-9 victory over the Vikings.
By eliminating the predominant parlays heading into the weekend with either Vikings or Saints to the over, all the those funds tied to the 'over' into Sunday’s games went to the house. The only folks who made out collectively were the sharps.
Some of the risk that is still active lies with ties-win parlay cards where most of the city settled on the supposed dead number of “5” which is now active on both sides going into this weekend's college and pro football games. Bettors who played parlays off the board at -5 will get a push and reduce down, but nevertheless, they are still active as well which isn’t good for house since this was the most bet game of the week.
The Vegas sports ooks may have cashed in pretty large today despite the sharps siding them, but there is still considerable risk due to the results which will weigh heavily on the weekend decision. Should the likes of the Colts, Titans, Packers, Cowboys and Dolphins cover Sunday, the final losing tally for the books heading into Monday will be more than doubled what it would have been had there been a 3 or 7-point decision on Thursday night’s Saints game.
In more ways than ever thought, even from a betting perspective, Brett Favre brings drama to the table like no other.
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