Saturday, September 18, 2010

Roberts Week 2 NFL Selections: Going With The Value This Week

There are lots of swayed opinions on this weeks games based on what happened last Sunday and Monday night. No one likes the Bengals, everyone hates the 49ers, folks are down on the Cowboys offense and the smack talk of the Jets without backing it up have the tide turned against them. Every one of those teams present value this week just because of the move against them, however, I’m only buying on three of them and going with the flow on the other.

Bengals +3 (EV) vs. Ravens
This game should realistically be a PICK and getting the value of a field goal at home has captured my action. The Bengals weren’t given the opportunity to get their game going at New England last week. By the time they looked up it was 24-0 and they had to throw on just about every down. I think the Ravens defense and offense will slow the tempo and play the way the Bengals would like to, the same way the tempo was last year when the Bengals went 2-0 against Baltimore. I think Cedric Benson has a good day running the ball and clock and they get the straight up win. PICK: BENGALS 23, RAVENS 17

Cowboys -7 vs. Bears
Between pre-season and last weeks game against the Redskins, the Cowboys bandwagon is much lighter these days. True, the offense has struggled, but the Bears defense and mistake prone offense is just the type of tonic Dallas needs to get them well again. Tony Romo will have a great game throwing to all of his weapons and the defense will feast on a couple of Jay Cutler picks. Look for a high scoring game early with the Dallas running game securing a two touchdown win. PICK: COWBOYS 34, BEARS 20

Falcons -6 ½  vs. Cardinals
Though the Falcons played a physical game last week against the Steelers, they should be plenty excited about getting on their fast track at home where Michael Turner always plays like a pro-bowler and Matt Ryan and Roddy White routinely hook up deep. Arizona, led by Derek Anderson, is not a good football team and will be exposed Sunday which will spur reporters to second guess the Matt Leinart release even more. PICK: FALCONS 31, CARDINALS 10

Vikings -5 ½ vs. Dolphins
I really like Miami this season and think they perform well all season -- maybe even make the playoffs -- but the home opener for the Vikings and Brett Favre goes without a hitch. Look for Bernard Berrian to finally get involved deep and mimic the relationship Favre had with Sidney Rice last year. PICK: VIKINGS 34, DOLPHINS 16

Texans -3 (+105) @ Redskins
I love this matchup with the student against the teacher as Gary Kubiak and Mike Shanahan square off. In this chess match between each who thinks the other will think he’s zigging, when zagging, but do just the opposite because he thinks that’s what his counterpart thinks he’ll do, Kubiak’s got all the chess pieces with no offensive flaws while Shanahan is a rook and bishop short of a quality lineup. I do believe the Redskins open it a little more this week -- how could they be less than last week -- but ultimately, I believe Matt Schaub and the Texans passing game gets it done in greater quantities. PICK: TEXANS 28, REDSKINS 23

Patriots -3 @ Jets
All I can envision for this game is Tom Brady and Bill Belichick scheming of ways to thoroughly embarrass the Jets and put them down 0-2, but more importantly shut them up. Add in Randy Moss not being too happy about anything now and it could get ugly. Can you imagine how good Moss could be if ran every play -- whether getting the ball or not -- equally hard. He’s hard enough to cover when tipping off by running hard on plays he’s getting the ball, what if the corner had no idea when he was getting it. The Revis Island -- with a sore hamstring -- might get a call from Hurricane Moss Sunday.

I do think the Jets will be able to run the ball, but a some point in the second or third quarter it will be up to Mark Sanchez -- at his lowest self-esteem level -- to get consistent completions down field. That part, I can’t see happening without mistakes in between. I would say this week will be close to what they did last week against the Bengals, but the early results will mirror what happened and alter the Jets game plan. PICK: PATRIOTS 31, JETS 17

49ers +6 vs. Saints
So the 49ers weren’t who we thought they were, eh? One game and it’s decidedly so. One loss at Seattle with their rah-rah college coach firing them up for the home opener and we’re ready to put them out to pasture. The line in this game should have been Saints -2 or maybe -2 ½, but not -6! That’s just too much change in a rating and spread for one game….the first game. Simply because of an over reaction by the public and sports books on this game, I will be taking the 49ers who I truly believe are much better than what we saw last week. I do believe that Frank Gore will have a big game and the 49ers defense will do enough to curtail the Saints attack as much as it is possible. PICK: 49ERS 23, SAINTS 20

No comments:

Post a Comment