Thursday, September 17, 2009

NFL Picks: Mike T's Week 2 Dogs

by Mike T.

The first few weeks of the season I always look for some value underdogs. Although I went 1-2 last week there were still a few dogs that got there that I only wish I would have taken. Let's see what I can do this week.

Teams like the Jets, Bears, and Seahawks are all possible dogs to get there this week but I'm staying away from them for the most part. ( I may stick them in a parlay but that's about it)

Ravens +3 1/2 over Chargers
By now most of us know that LT is banged up already and will not play. That is not the only reason to go against SD. Offensive linemen Nick Hardwick(ankle) and Louis Vasquez (knee) have not practiced this week. The Raiders held this SD running attack to 87 yds on 23 carries. That was with 2 healthy starting linemen. Now SD has to play a much better Raven D and a Raven O that is also much better than Oakland.
Ravens 20 Chargers 10

Saints +1 over Eagles
Not only is McNabb doubtful with a broken rib but (T) Shaun Andrews is also out for the year. Andrews will be replaced with turn-style Winston justice. If the Saints sent multiple looks at Justice, Kevin Kolb could be in for a long day while trying to keep up with the high powered Saints offense. I think we'll see the Saints go up early and never look back.
Saints 24 Eagles 14

Giants +3 over Dallas
The first thing that stands out to me is the line. The home team -3 is the same as a pick'em on a neutral field. This line seems a little off to me, it should probably be Dallas +1. Odds makers can hang this number because they know they will get plenty of action on the Cowboys. This being a big division game and the fact that Dallas is opening their new stadium on Sunday night is enough to make this line a boring 3. The Cowboys offense put up 34 points on TB last week including 3 bombs while holding the Bucs to just 10. This week however, the Cowboys are not playing the Bucs. The Bucs rushed for 174 yds against the Boys but abandoned the run once they fell behind. The Giants have a better O Line and better backs and I doubt they give up on the run game even if they are down a score or two. The Giants D Line will also pressure Romo a lot more than the Bucs did and should bring their run game to a halt.

One more thing, teams playing their first game in a new stadium are 7-6 straight up and 5-8 against the spread since 1997.
Giants 27 Cowboys 16

1 comment:

  1. Geat picks Mike.
    I've been mulling iver the Saints game and could see your logic. The Eagles will be pressed for offense with Kolb. I think a lot of people just think of the Saints being soft.

    The new stadium sta was solid, but somewhat misleading since John Elway never got to play in that dump they call Invesco. Can I get and asterisk?