Friday, September 25, 2009

MIke T's Week 3 Dogs: Bengals, Birds, & Bills Look Good

by Mike T.

After a 1-2 start in week 1 I came back last week with 3 money line dogs getting there. I'm now 4-2 on the season. I had the Chargers, Saints and Giants all winning outright. There were 9 dogs that covered last week. That is unusually high however, as I've said in previous posts that is what happens the first few weeks of the season. Whether it's odds makers putting to much emphasis on the past years performance or just simply hanging bad numbers, it happens every year. I don't expect to see 9 dogs cover again this week, in fact I'm having a tough time trying to find 3 of them.

There are a few small dogs that can get there like the Titans or the Seahawks (both +1) but I just don't like either of them enough to bet on them. Jeff Fischer should have his team fired up as the Jets ended their 10-0 run last year in blowout fashion. I just don't think the line is favorable for the dog here. If Tenn was getting 3-3 1/2 I'd be all over it.

Bengals +4 vs Steelers
Like last weeks Giants- Cowboys line this one just seems wrong to me. The 1-1 Steelers are 4 point road favorites against the division rival 1-1 Bengals. Really? This is a good example of the odds makers hanging a line based more on last year's performance than this year's. The Steelers are playing their second consecutive road game coming off a loss to the Bears, while the Bengals are coming back home after a huge win at Green Bay. If not for a miracle by Brandon Stokley the Bengals could very well be 2-0 while if not for 2 missed FGs by Rob Bironas the Steelers could be 0-2. Would the line still be Pitt-4 if that were the case? This line should be pick'em at best maybe even Cinn -1 or 2.
Bengals 24 Steelers 16

Falcons +4 at Patriots
Here is another situation where you have a team (NE) that could be 0-2 if Buffalo took a knee vs a solid 2-0 team. I don't have as much a problem with this line as the Pats are at home. Tom Brady does not look like to 50 TD quarterback he was 2 seasons ago. In fact, so far he's looked pretty bad. He doesn't look confident, he's not planting his foot when he throws and he looks a little nervous out there. Brady did show a bit of confidence in the 2nd half of week 1 but last week he looked like a rookie against the Jets. He didn't throw a TD for the first time in 3 years, was 23-47 and had an int.
Meanwhile the Falcons keep impressing me. I stayed away from them the first 2 weeks because I wasn't sure if they were a fluke last year. Well they're not, this is a team that is talented everywhere and should see the post season again. These may be two teams that are headed in different directions. I expect to see a heavy dose of Michael Turner against this very average Pats defense. Matt Ryan shouldn't have much of a problem finding his TE and WRs coming off of play-action. The Falcons defense should pressure Brady all day and keep him uncomfortable while containing there mediocre run game.
Falcons 28 Patriots 21

Bills +6 vs Saints
The high powered Saints offense roll into Buffalo for their second consecutive road game. This is an out of conference road game and could be a good spot for the Bills. As we know, the Bills could easily be 2-0 right now and are playing good ball like they did to open the season last year. Buffalo's offense went from scoring 24 in week 1 to 33 in week 2. Two of the three starting defensive linemen for the Saints are questionable starts with leg injuries which may mean even more time in the pocket for Trent Edwards and bigger holes for Fred Jackson to run through. The Saints may also be without WR Lance Moore (hamstring-questionable) and RB Pierre Thomas is still nursing a knee injury(although he's listed as probable) while Mike Bell is doubtful with an MCL sprain. I expect this game to be a shootout and one I'll be looking forward to watching.
Bills 31 Saints 30

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