Thursday, January 21, 2016

2016 NFC Championship Game: Arizona at Carolina -3 (-120)

Carson Palmer, with the perfect throwing form, has been so-so lately. 
6:40 pm ET - TV: FOX
Arizona (14-3, 9-8 ATS) at Carolina (16-1, 12-5 ATS)
Line: Carolina -3 (-120), 48

LAS VEGAS -- Almost like the Denver situation, we’ve got a number that is inflated due to the sports books predicting who the public will be on and they were correct again as over 70 percent of the wagers so far have come on the Panthers.

This number is actually rising with Boyd Gaming showing -3.5 (EV), a spot we’ll likely see several books before the game kicks off. A nice guide to see where the number is really going is to watch what the South Point does with the game because they use only flat numbers. They don’t want to get off -3 if they don’t have to, and they won’t move the juice, so if it gets too lopsided, they’ll go to -3.5 and if Arizona money doesn’t bite then, it could go to -4.

We think there is about 1-point of value with the Cardinals at +3, but with ’3’ being the most key number in the NFL, it’s almost like 2-points of value. Getting the hook at a flat price is even better, and we think the move here is to wait for that to happen. Worst case scenario while waiting is that you still get +3. And remember......

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