More Madness than ever at Vegas books

The first March Madness weekend in Las Vegas is always the busiest four-day stretch the sports books will see all season, but the 2016 version took things up a few notches that surprised even the most veteran bookmakers across the city.

"It was unbelievably busy,"said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback.

"Every year you think it can't be any busier, but it was a sight I've never seen in my 30 years in the business. The crowds were incredible, and our action reflected the growth with ticket counts being up 30 percent on Wednesday before the tournament and then up 20 percent over the same Thursday through Sunday last year. We had lines backed up all the way past California Pizza Kitchen (inside Mirage) at 9 am with only one game starting within the hour on Saturday."

The busy Saturday morning was a continuation from what happened Friday night, when bettors did extremely well on the late results with Notre Dame covering -3 against Michigan and Northern Iowa winning outright as a 4.5-point underdog against Texas.

"We ran out of money Friday," said Stoneback regarding the non-stop payouts. "We had to get two cash fills from the cage, so when Saturday morning came around, bettors were really gung ho about the upcoming games."

The most surprising thing thing about the MGM books having so much additional action is that they didn't offer in-progress wagering or phone wagering like many of the other books in town, who also said handle was way up.

"Handle way up, win down," said William Hill's bookmaking director Nick Bogdanovich. "The first day was good, but the other three were a battle."

It was the same story at Station Casinos 19 books across the city.

Read More Here.....VegasInsider.com

Las Vegas Final Four Betting Notes: Could Handle Suffer With Two Conderella's?

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Will bettors be excited about VCU-Butler in Final Four?

What will you all be doing early Saturday evening? Is the first game of the Final Four between the small programs of Virginia Commonwealth and Butler "Must See TV"? This will be the question many of the Las Vegas sports books will hope the answer to is "Yes" despite not having the traditional glamour schools from major conferences participating.

Even CBS has made it clear they know who the country would rather see by putting the VCU Cinderella story in the less attractive time slot prior to the east coast prime time hours. Ratings are a winner for television, but does it also translate to the betting window in Vegas?

These are some of the questions that not only Vegas sportsbooks will be dealing with, but the entire nation. Do we like two Cinderella's in the Final Four, or do we like just one every couple of years?

It may sound trivial, or not even an issue, because the Final Four has become such an institution over the years with every game seeming just as meaningful as the next, but is that really true? If you’re being pressured to do yard work Saturday by the wife, knowing you have to sacrifice one game over the other, at what time do you start shaving the palm trees?

It's probable that unless you're from Virginia or Indiana, the Kentucky-Connecticut game will get star billing in every household. At the same time, how can anyone not be compelled with it being the first Final Four ever to not have a No. 1 or 2 seed present while also offering a No. 8 and 11 seed?

The rabid college basketball fans who frequent the Las Vegas sportsbooks every day will be ready for the pre-game show and primed no matter who's playing, but for the fringe fan -- the guy who breaks out his home state's college shirt once or twice a year, it's a tough sell which could have final handle numbers for the weekend games off a little.

Las Vegas Hilton Super Book

"I don't think so," says the Las Vegas Hilton's Super Book's Jay Kornegay, "I think the four teams have a little bit to offer for everyone that loves college sports. Yes, VCU isn't as well known, but that's part of the excitement and Butler is kind of a well known name just from being there last year."

Whatever sporting event is coming to a close, it attracts more people to the betting windows and increases handle. The events cross over into homes of folks who don't necessarily follow the sport weekly. Events like the Super Bowl, Kentucky Derby and NBA Finals don't see more volume because the regulars are betting more, it's the people who want a piece of the excitement and a rooting interest that don't play daily who make the difference.

Casual sports fans know Connecticut, they know Kentucky, but they don't know Butler or VCU. You've got the well known Big East and SEC conferences battling who have been on television all year up against the Horizon and Colonial conferences, who are barely seen no matter how much you're willing to pay in DirecTV packages.

"I think this is going to be a normal Final Four compared to years past," said Cantor Gaming's Sports Book Director Mike Colbert, "But I will say that the handle for the UConn-Kentucky game will far outweigh the other game."

There is the innocence of the college sport and the school name across the chest that comes out and grabs the attention of casual fans when underdogs knock off giants that compels them in the same way that endeared us to the movie Hoosiers.

"Most college basketball fans are like me and enjoy seeing the whole story unfold no matter who wins it just because these games are always intriguing," said Colbert, "But across the board, it's the big teams that still draw the big money."

While the Final Four is a big weekend with two big games Saturday and the Championship game on Monday, it's still not up there on the level of the Derby or Super Bowl.

It's hard not to be thrilled for the underdogs 

"It's not like the first weekend of the tournament by any means," Colbert said, "People don't fly in to Vegas for Final Four weekend like they do for the first two weeks."

People are worn from the barrage of games that have captivated us all for the last two weeks and when the last three games come around, people want to watch, but they aren't making destination plans to do so.

"The NCAA Tournament is kind of unique for us because the big splash for us happens in the first two rounds," says Kornegay. "It's the only major sport we have where the final game doesn't have the same type of impact for us as the preceding games."

The actual impact of two Cinderellas making the Final Four to Las Vegas won't be known until next week, but Kornegay believes the entity of the event will hold more weight than the participants.

"I don't think it really matters who is in the Final Four, they're going to bet it no matter what."

Check Ego's at the Door, VCU Made the Final Four...Deal With It!
I've never seen the national sports media carry a grudge like they're doing with VCU during their run. Most acknowledge that it's a phenomenal story with a team that barely made the tournament having to win a play-in game just to make the field of 64, and then making the Final Four.

Jamele Hill would still rather talk of VCU making 68

National sports writer Jamele Hill -- who has most recently found fame with her mug on ESPN's "Around the Horn" -- and the always positive hoop spin doctor Dick Vitale have been quick to remind everyone on the social network, via Twitter, that VCU still shouldn't be there. They are sticking to their guns regarding their initial tirades when the selection committee came out with their top 68 teams.

Sure, the few selections were debatable, but after all that has happened, you would think that these ambassadors of the college game might celebrate the accomplishment more.

How about guiding the anger in poison tweets to more worthy topics in regards to the college spirit like questioning the tactics of John Calipari, who somehow is still allowed to roll out his card tricks in the face of the NCAA after crushing two programs, right?

We forget that these kids are just that, kids. It's a game with young adults who are going to school, not getting paid -- in most cases -- and should be void of the type of commentary we reserve for the professionals. Negativity by the media, especially at this level, is unfair. It makes you understand a little what Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy was saying when he went on his famous "I'm a MAN" tirade with the media.

Even though Calipari's players may benefit more than others, to see two teams like Butler and VCU do what they are doing should inspire and show that the college game isn't all about non-sanctioned agents, AAU coaches, shoe camps and networking.

It shows that if you have good coaching, players who have some talent that want to better themselves, get an education and work well as a team, you can reach the pinnacle no matter what small conference you're from. Most of the VCU and Butler players have played with each other for three years or more and are a true team in the concept, while Calipari and Kentucky continually have players with basically one-year contracts.

Even though I thought Colorado should have made the field of 68 like many others, I know who I'm rooting for right now without my tiny ego getting in the way.

Las Vegas Sports Book Notes

Walker and UConn are 9/4 to win the next 2

The Las Vegas Hilton adjusted their future odds for the Final Four with Kentucky being the 7/5 favorite (Bet $100 to win $140) followed by the team they're playing in the semi-final match, Connecticut, as the second choice at 9/4 (Bet $100 to win $225). Butler is 3/1 (Bet $100 to win $300) with super-Cinderella VCU getting 9/2 (Bet $100 to win $450) odds.

So VCU lost to Drexel, Georgia State, James Madison, Northeastern, and well, let's just say quite a few others. However, they are also the only team to win five NCAA tournament games and win by double-digits against four of them. They won as double-digit underdogs against both Purdue and Kansas, so why not take down Butler and whoever makes the final?

As for Butler, after getting through a tough three game losing streak at the end of January -- losing to the likes of Youngstown State -- they have reeled off 13 straight wins coming into the Final Four as the hottest team remaining. They have also covered their last six games in a row.

The SEC wasn't a highly regarded conference within the RPI rankings, but Kentucky did what they had to along the way and has won 10 games in a row, including winning the SEC conference tournament. They knocked off Florida in the SEC title game -- a team seeded higher than them in the NCAA's -- and then went out and beat a Big East team, Big Ten, and ACC squads to get where they are at. They may have the most impressive credentials of all which is why the Wild Cats are the favorites to win it all.

Connecticut didn't lose to a team outside of the Big East all season. They started the season off with 10 straight wins and are currently on a nine-game winning streak that includes winning the Big East tournament. Everyone knew they were good coming into the season, but we kind of got side tracked because of the nine conferences losses. Whatever it is they have done, they have sandwiched in a terrific season of excellence. The most attractive aspect of siding with the Huskies is that they have a star in Kemba Walker who is filling it like not many others have on this stage.

Because of the star player angle with Walker and Connecticut truly being who were all thought they were from November, I'll take them to beat VCU in the Championship Game by nine points.

Sweet 16 Results Good for the House
With all the upsets that occurred last week, it was only natural that the sports books did well. However, after missing out on a string of VCU upsets, the bettors finally jumped on the bandwagon with them against Kansas on the money-line and point line. Despite paying out 5/1 (Bet $100 to win $500) and higher with VCU money-line plays, there was a large cash reserve in the bank with the likes of public favorites Ohio State and Duke losing outright.

Las Vegas College Betting Notes: Staggered Schedule Should Help Handle

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Kornegay says less players will get shut out

This years College Basketball tournament has the potential to set all-time highs in handle throughout Nevada sports books thanks to the new television contract which debuts this week with staggered start times. The deal between the NCAA, CBS Sports and Turner Sports now allows bettors more time to get to the windows which should in turn create a significant increase in volume.

Under the old scenario, bettors would play their group of games during what the start times dictated. If three games were going off within 10 minutes of each other, a popular betting strategy from regular bettors would be to play a two or three team parlay on those games and link those up in parlays with a few of the other 33 games starting later. Because most play with a limited bankroll, their allotment on straight bets may go to only one or two games during that stretch while they waiting to see if they won or not.

With the new staggered format, bettors will now be able to cash without missing opportunities on the next wave of games and roll some of that money over, or if it goes bad, know that they have to go to the ATM and get more cash because a decision is in. Either way, the bettor now has time to regroup or press the action that wasn’t always available in the past.

The true value to the sports books is hard to forecast without having seen it all unwind before, but Thursday and Friday’s action is expected to exceed what they did last year just because of a longer time frame for the public.

Jimmy Vaccaro

“I think it’s going to be good for our handle,“ said veteran Lucky’s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro. “We should see us get an increase of about 5% over last years handle. When all the games start at relatively the same time, many of the bettors miss out. Now they’ll all have plenty of time to get action on the next game.“

One of the biggest problems with games starting while others are ending so close together is just being able to make the bet on time as Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay explains.

“Even when some of those games would end in enough time for bettors to get down, a lot of them would get shut-out no matter how many windows we had open,“ Kornegay said. “Bettors like to cash immediately after games and then you have others who like to bet just before the game, so when you have both sides doing the both thing in a small window of opportunity, having some of them getting shut-out is inevitable. Hopefully the staggered schedule negates some of that.”

Most of the average Joe’s like to bet one game at a time -- or a wave of games in parlays -- seeing how their bankroll goes. Betting a 4 pm game at 9 am with their early plays is rarely seen. These bettors want immediate action and they want immediate cash when they win. It’s part of what makes the first weekend of action so exciting in a Las Vegas sports book. There’s an exhilarating rush of hustling through a crowd to get action in at the last minute, kind of like the frenzy that goes off at a race track with two minutes to post.

Because of the layers in betting opportunities, Coast Resorts Sports Book Director Bob Scucci certainly thinks handle will be up, but he isn’t necessarily sure about the win percentage being equally increased.

“This is far more advantageous for the player than us because they have more opportunities to re-group over the course of the day and come up with another game plan should they lose, whereas before they were forced to do a lot of their betting all at once,” Scucci said. “It’s kind of like the NFL on Sunday’s, but with many more levels, with parlays on each level generating more and more outstanding risk.”

On Sunday nights during the NFL season, even if the players have a mediocre day, no matter what a sports book does, it‘s hard to even out the liability because most of the extended risk is paying out 10, 20, or 40-to-1 odds on parlays. No matter how creative the bookmaker is, they can’t reduce that risk by much by taking straight bets paying 11-to-10 odds. Increasing a money-line on the late game to make it attractive for sharp bettors for large money is one way to help, but it still doesn’t come close to leveling off what some of the payouts are.

While handle alone on Thursday and Friday look to exceed anything done in the past, the staggered schedule on Saturday and Sunday is still up for debate. On each of these days, half the games will start after 3 pm making the annual routine altered a bit for many Las Vegas visitors. Whether it’s show or dinner reservations, there are a lot of other variables that come into play for making the late Saturday game not as attractive in the past.

Most guests check out Sunday afternoon and either drive home to California or have to catch a flight meaning that there’s a chance several of these players on the strip will be leaving before the games are over. On a normal Sunday in the second round the games would be over by 4 pm. This year, four games will be going or will have yet to begun by that time.

It’s likely that the rise in handle from Thursday and Friday will outweigh any decrease from Saturday or Sunday’s games that may occur and Vaccaro’s estimate of a 5% increase will be right on the money.

No More Yelling at the Sports Books
Another aspect of the new TV deal is that the sports book staff is likely to take less abuse from a crowd that, lets just say is usually a bit intoxicated after two hours of watching the game. The number one abuse taken by the staff is always about games being taken of the air by the network.

“We’ll have a group watching their game where the spread may be 18-points and the national CBS feed thinks a 20-point game with five minutes to go isn’t competitive and then switches it to another game we already had the feed on,“ says Kornegay, “These fans start yelling like an angry mob at us as if we intentionally changed the game, not knowing that we can’t control what the network does.”

With four different networks going at the same time on Thursday and Friday, much of the past obscenities thrown at the staff should be at a minimum this year. With the ability to get more bets in with less shut-outs, this could be the best handle Nevada has ever seen for the tournament. if we see some angry drinkers yelling and screaming, it will likely now only be because of picking the wrong side.

Contests All Over Las Vegas

To show just how meaningful the NCAA Tournament is to Las Vegas sports books, all you have to do is look at all the contests being offered at several of the casinos. A sports book marketing budget generally is spread across the year with about 80% going towards the football season and the other 20% spent for March Madness. The tournament grabs bettors attention like only football can and in order for most books to funnel the majority of the bets their way, contests with all entries fees returned or huge overlays are the way to do it.

Station Casinos is once again going with their popular Last man Standing contest that paid out over $41,000 to one winner last season. This year Stations is guaranteeing $40,000 no matter how many entries are taken, up from the $25,000 guaranteed last year. The entry fee is $25 and if you buy four, you get one free. All you have to do is pick one winner a day against the spread. If you your entry is the last one standing, you win.

Station sports books are also enticing guests with value for the month by offering $1 Budweisers and hot dogs on days that the tournament is being played. The combination of getting that value as well as watching the games in any of their beautiful books make it a hard deal to pass up.

Another local favorite, Coast Resorts, has a deal that is hard to pass up as well. In addition to having a great viewing experience for all the games, they are offering a free contest that pays one winner $10,000 at the end of the contest. 100 contestants will get paid in this no points contest that pays a total of $16,000. The best thing about the contest is that is done out of their convenient kiosk. The only thing that is required is that you have one of their players card. It’s free money out there waiting to be taken. All you have to do is get there and pick some winners.

If playing at the contest at the Orleans, they also have a deal that could win you more cash just by making your bets there. Every $50 bet gets you a drawing ticket to win up to $10,000 which they’ll be doing the first four days of the tournament. If your going to make bets, you might as well enter this contest and get your chance at free money.

Lucky’s sports books will be running their contest for the second consecutive year with $6,000 guaranteed for a $10 entry fee. There is also a bonus of $1,000 for whoever has the best record during the first four days of the tournament.

Leroy’s sports books have their “Three ‘n Out” contest running again for a $25 entry fee with all entry fees returned as prize money. The only way you can lose is to lose three times during the tournament picking one game a day against the spread. The deadline for entry is March 5th at 5 pm.

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book is another great place to watch the games in their Hoops Central showroom. The best thing about it is that your in an environment kind of like being at an arena with all the ooh’s and ahh’s on every play that help give the tournament a life of it‘s own.

Hilton Updated Odds
The updated Tournament odds at the Hilton have top seed Ohio State as the 7/2 favorites followed by Duke 9/2, Kansas 5/1, and Pittsburgh 8/1. Aftert those four, the next in line is San Diego State at 12/1 and North Carolina at 15/1. After doing my brackets early on, I kept having Michigan State making it to the Final Four and they are currently 100/1. If anyone believes in UNLV getting past Illinois, and then Kansas in the next round, the Rebels are 200/1 to win it all.

Along with Michigan State, I have Ohio State, Kansas and San Diego State making the Final Four in my own bracket. It's not exactly going out on a limb, but I do have Utah State, Gonzaga and Richmond all making the sweet 16.

Jimmy Vaccaro on How Important The Tournament Is
“You only get a few cracks at big weeks a year and these next few weeks will be the last until football starts with a small spike of activity late in the NBA playoffs. After not doing as well as we would have liked in the Super Bowl, it’s very important for us to make the most of this month.

College Basketball Notes: It's Do or Die Time For Bubble Teams

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The last time Wisconsin beat a No. 1 ranked college basketball team was in 1962 against Ohio State. On Saturday they duplicated the feat, but took it one step further by giving the Buckeyes their first loss of the season. It’s almost a mirror image of what the football team did in Madison back in October when they beat Ohio State’s No. 1 ranked undefeated team on the gridiron.

The Wisconsin double-sting has the folks in Columbus in grumbling and refusing anything and everything to do with cheese, milk and Miller beer as a protest of sorts for their newly found dislike of what the state has to offer. However, it still doesn’t come close to comparing to what happened in 2007 when Florida beat down the Buckeyes in both football and basketball Championship games.
Wisconsin’s win pushes their record to 19-5 on the year and sets them up for bonus points in the NCAA seeding process. The win also is beneficial to UNLV and the Mountain West conference because of UNLV’s November win against the Badgers. Despite the MWC having the RPI’s fourth ranked conference, it looks as though only two teams are guaranteed to get in at this juncture with two others on the fence (UNLV and Colorado State) and another (New Mexico) needing to win out just to sit on the fence.

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UNLV (No. 29 RPI) has a good resume, but their MWC play has been horrendous going 0-5 against the top three teams in the conference. With four extra spots filling the NCAA board, yes, UNLV should get in, but they had better win at least one of their games at Colorado State or New Mexico to ensure it. Should they lose both of those tough matchups, we might talking about the NIT here in Las Vegas come March.

As for the Buckeyes, it was a good loss. They don’t need that weight of being undefeated going down the stretch of conference play. They can now re-focus and set their sights on making the Final Four, a place I fully expect them to be.
Bubble Teams
We're at the time of the year now where teams control their own fate. They can either win a few big games and make the tournament or lose them and miss out. Michigan State, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Baylor, Boston College, Tennessee, Memphis, and Virginia Tech are all needing a major push down the stretch, just as UNLV and Colorado State does.
ATS Streaks
St. Bonaventure is on a four-game cover streak which includes a big win against Duquesne as an 8 ½-point underdog and a two-point loss at Dayton as a 9-point dog. Another Atlantic-10 team who has been going in the opposite direction all season is Fordham, who has been ripe for the picking against almost every game. Despite covering 21-points in an 11-point loss to Temple, they are on a 13-game losing streak and have gone 2-11 ATS over that span.

Miami-Florida seems to play every ACC game close with nearly all their games being decided by 3 points or less; however, they are currently on a four-game non-cover skid. North Carolina has gone almost a month of covering getting the money seven games in a row. After a shaky start to the season, the Tar Heels have gone 11-2 SU in their last 13 games. Even though they have the much heralded Carolina blue on their chests and expectations are always high, they are playing well and could be a really dangerous team in the tournament.

N.C. State took care of their eight game non-cover streak by blasting Wake Forest Sunday just like everyone else does, but don’t let the one cover scare you into staying away from betting against them. Depaul still has their 12 game losing streak in tact, but they have covered their last three games.

Notre Dame is currently playing one of the best teams in the Big East having won seven in a row with a 6-1 record ATS. Pitt’s only loss in their last 14 games came at the hands of the Irish, but the Panthers are clearly the most polished team in the conference, and maybe even the nation. They have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three and 7-2 ATS in their last nine.

Who knows what to think about Syracuse. They are tough to bet on or against, The stats keep saying to bet against them, but you've got that stubborn thought of reason that keeps telling you they still are one of the better teams in the nation. The reality is that the Orange have been a great team to bet against all season. They are 3-6 ATS since their undefeated streak was snapped and on the season, they are 10-15 ATS. We all kind of knew Cincinnati was phony thanks to their padded schedule early and once conference play began, they were exposed. In their last four games, they are 0-4 ATS and have gone 2-8 ATS since January 9.
Michigan is likely NIT bound, but they’re making a major push to get on the bubble having won five of their last six games going 5-1 ATS.
Must Watch TV
The game of the week has the best from the WAC and the WCC facing each other as No. 24 Utah State plays at No. 23 Saint Mary’s Saturday night. Utah State lost at Idaho last Wednesday as a 9-point favorite and failed to cover in a win against Fresno State Saturday. Saint Mary’s is on a four-game winning streak and should be able to keep the streak going at home. Look for a nine-point win by the Gaels.

Las Vegas Sports Books Get Crushed in Super Bowl; Packers To Over Did Them In

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

After the Super Bowl score and all the propositions were posted, Las Vegas sports books collectively took a beating as the Packers and over the total of 45 came in. It was the only scenario where the books could lose and it happened. The only saving grace for some of the books was a large reserve with future bets cashing in and the ties-lose parlay card paying dividends. In most instances, the books did very well with either side winning on future odds to win the Super Bowl prior to the final results, but it still didn‘t deflect from the massive parlay handle on the day for the individual game.

Among all the terrible tales of the sports books day, a couple stood out with decent wins because of their strategy to attract Steelers money before anyone else.

The South Point had been giving the best line for both Packers and Steelers supporters leading up to kickoff by offering either minus-2 ½ flat, or plus-3 flat four days before kikcoff and used that action to offset the the winning two team parlays.

Coast Resorts also followed the South Point lead by getting all the Steelers action they could at -3 (EVEN) giving them a cushion for the big public parlay.

The M Resort and their chain of Cantor Gaming sports books reported a small win for the day, but after all was tabulated throughout the state, it was a substantial loser on the day.

The last time the state lost collectively for the Super Bowl was when the Giants beat the Patriots where the loss was $2.5 million. All the results aren’t in yet at this juncture, but the state does require state handle and win to be reported immediately with the overall results likely to come by Tuesday. Based on the sample reports, the loss from form the Giants upset in 2008 could be duplicated or passed.

Most sports books stayed steady at Packers - 2 ½ (-120) for the duration and all would have been well had the game stayed under. At most sports books, the parlay combo with Green Bay to the over was the only losing equation.

Coast Resorts and the South Point had each done a magnificent job in generating action with their attractive Steelers lines at +3. By Sunday, the three major off-shore sports books had all followed suit, but here in Las Vegas, everyone stayed relative calm with their lines. The Wynn started a move to -3 flat an hour before kickoff and Lucky’s went to -2 ½ (-130) while the M Resort was steady at - 2 ½ (-135).

The bottom line was that there wasn’t much large Steelers money to be had. Those who had wanted Pittsburgh +3 had gotten it with the South Point Thursday and Friday. When the weekend rolled around, the action was kind of stale, especially with the majority of the Las Vegas lines at a stalemate.

In the long run, every casino made money on the Super Bowl despite what accounting figures show for the day. You can bet that the majority of the money won by the betting public was returned elsewhere in the casino a couple times over. The party doesn’t stop with the Super Bowl, it’s just an excuse to get down and dirty -- gamble some more -- and forget about all the irritable things going on at home, where ever that may be.

Even though the sports books may have lost, let’s not forget about their contributions to the sagging numbers in table games coming into the weekend which were spiked due to the sudden wealth becoming of several gamblers. The same goes for food and beverage, and slots as well.

The sports book goal is to win money, of course, but it’s also such a small portion of the overall casino revenue. Their value to the overall floor of a casino is more about marketing than expected large contributions. While the sports book numbers for Sunday may look to be down, there should be an accounting wizard for each of the corporations that factor in the rise of other areas of the casino operations that should get transferred to the sports book department.

As you read this, the reality may have finally set in that football season is over. All the sports book Directors are sure to be on their way to a long and much deserved vacation as bettors turn their full attention to college basketball now.

Before we get too sentimental about how poorly the books did for the Super Bowl, let us not forget how they crushed everyone all season long with the bettors only getting the best of the books two times during the NFL’s 2010 regular season. The Packers freight train was coming and everyone liked them. When something like that occurs, no matter how a game is booked, the sports book will lose if the public is right. And there is no bigger stage than the Super Bowl for the public to show their talents.

There will be all kinds of should’ve, would’ve talk regarding the booking of the game, but the bottom line is that it was the small money that won with 13-to-5 parlay action and there wasn’t a spread out there that could have off-set the loss. There was only so much Steelers large money out there to be had and it went quickly to the South Point and then later with Coast Resorts. Had someone went to Packers -3 ½, we’d still be discussing the same topic with the same figures.



College Basketball Betting Notes From Las Vegas

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

While most people around the country may not realize how good George Mason and Duquesne are, the betting world can quickly attest for their strength against the almighty spread. The nation has kind of been fixated on No. 3 Texas because they have been blowing teams out regularly in their last 13 games going 10-2-1 ATS, but lets give a little love to George Mason and Duquesne who are doing almost the exact same thing the Long Horns are, just on a smaller scale.

In Saturday’s 17-point win over Old Dominion as a 5-point favorite, George Mason got their 10th straight cover and ninth straight win. Just like Texas, they too have been destroying their opponents and have vaulted to the top of the Colonial conference and the ratings can‘t catch up with them.

This week the Patriots play a very weak Wilmington team before an interesting home matchup against James Madison, a team they beat by two 3 weeks ago on the road. The big game in the conference will take place February 15 when they travel to UVA for a battle between conference heavyweights.

All Duquesne has done this year is compile a 12-3 ATS record while going straight to the top of the Atlantaic-10 as co-leaders. Before losing to St. Bony’s on Saturday, the Dukes had won and covered eight games in a row and have high hopes of making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1977.

The city of Pittsburgh may be sulking a bit with the Steelers loss, but the basketball team rising to their best play since the Norm Nixon era has the city kind of excited about their poor step-sisters of the Pitt Panthers basketball program like rarely seen. Despite their impressive 16-6 record, they likely will have to win their conference tournament as they are currently No. 78 in the RPI rankings.

This Sunday, Duquesne has perhaps their biggest home game since 1977 when they face Xavier who is tied atop the A-10 with them at 8-1. A win against a quality opponent like Xavier -- No. 25 RPI -- would go a long way in getting them a possible at-large bid. Hopefully, my backing of a Pittsburgh team this Sunday will have better results than I did with the city on Super Sunday.

A team that has no shot of going anywhere, but are consistently making money for bettors is Sacramento State. They have only won six games on the season, but they are playing inspired ball of late as they’ve won three of those six games in their last four, covering the spread in five straight. Over their last 12 games they have gone 10-2 ATS, but still only have those recent three wins to show for it. Up next is a trip up north to Big Sky leader Montana, a team they lost by 16 to last month as a 12-point underdog. Taking the double-digit points might be a good idea based on their recent turnaround.

Just a few weeks ago, despite the poor play, I had Michigan State as a team that would step it up and come up with big wins in conference play -- at least enough to make them a No. 8 or 9 seed in the Tournament, but their inconsistent play over the last four weeks says they are bound for the NIT. Losing to Iowa, Michigan and Penn State should not happen to a team coached as well as they are with all the talent they possess. As for Sparty bettors, they haven’t covered a spread in their last nine games. Their RPI rating has dropped to No. 50 and need a miracle fast. Beating Penn State this week and then upsetting Ohio State next week are absolute musts if they intend to make the NCAA’s.

I hate to put UNLV in any negative light because they hustle harder than most teams, but the results from the sports book show that the Rebels haven’t covered the spread in over two weeks. Their 0-5 ATS streak has a great possibility of being snapped this week as they play at TCU, the second worst team in the Mountain West.

Washington started last week as the No. 20 team in the country but then got beat up on their road trip south to face the Oregon squads, neither of whom had a winning record. Thursday night the Huskies fell straight up at Oregon State as a 13-point favorite. They followed that up two days later with a loss at Eugene as 8-point favorites. Washington has now gone four straight games without covering. They’ll try and get things back together Thursday with a road game at Cal who had won four in a row, including both Oregon teams, before losing to Arizona.

The Ducks, meanwhile, have covered five straight games -- winning four straight up -- and have done so as an underdog in each. Thursday night they‘ll play at UCLA once again as underdog. However, the spread will be quite light compared to two weeks ago due to their terrific play of late.

Las Vegas Sports Book Betting Notes; Packers favored to Win Super Bowl

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

With the two number one seeds eliminated and only four teams left, the sentimental choice to win the Super Bowl now is the sixth seeded Green Bay Packers led by their rising star, Aaron Rodgers. Of course, fans from the other three teams would disagree, but fans of other teams who have been eliminated can’t help but root for the quarterback who has created his own niche on a team that was so long associated by Brett Favre.

It’s hard not to root for Rodgers just from the aspect of how tough of a situation he was put in three years ago when the whole Favre soap opera started. Rodgers didn’t say much and just played the game, while Favre’s true nature became apparent to all in his final year.

We’ve seen glimpses of greatness out of Rodgers in the past, but nothing like what we saw last week on the stage of the playoffs where he completed 31 of 36 passes for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns in Atlanta. At times, while he was dodging defenders in the pocket and feeling pressure with eyes in the back of his head, scrambling around, I thought I was watching Roger Staubach back there, another quarterback who wore number 12.

The Las Vegas sportsbooks don’t get caught up in sentiment, but rather cold hard facts when creating their lines, yet they too have been greatly swayed by the impressive Packers in their last two games. It was surprising enough when the Packers were a short 1-point underdog at the top seeded Falcons, but this week they are 3 ½-point favorites on the road at Chicago for the NFC Championship game.

The Packers have been placed as the 8-to-5 favorite (Bet $100 to win $160) to win the Super Bowl at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book despite a higher seed such as the Steelers (2/1) still active. The Hilton’s Jeff Sherman believes the Packers would be a pick’em against the Steelers and minus-2 ½ against the Jets, but also said that the line would drastically change by what happens Sunday. Should one game produce a blow out while the other plays a tight one, it will be reflected greatly in the Super Bowl line.

Three’s the Magic Number

Value with the Number "3"

The only sportsbook in Las Vegas that doesn’t attach additional money to any of their key numbers is Bert Osborne’s South Point. Rather than move a game from minus-3 flat to minus-3 (-120) like most of the books do today, Osborne goes right to minus-3 ½ flat. This season, over 18% of all NFL games landed on “3,” but Osborne’s year-over-year analysis proves his strategy more profitable in the end. While most books deflected action last week on the Ravens-Steelers game because of the additional money attached to that line, Osborne kept hopping back and forth with limit bets at plus-3 ½ with the Ravens and minus-3 with Steelers. In the end, the overall action attracted because of the flat lines helped create a profitable weekend, better than most.

This week Osborne has a major dilemma as both games are hovering around “3”. Should one of the favored teams land on “3“, he‘ll get sided and refund several bets while paying out the winning side at plus-3 ½. Osborne is probably hoping that the games run up more to avoid the key number, but if they don’t, and you’re looking for value, the South Point and the books under their umbrella such as the Cannery, Palms and El Cortez are definitely places to shop.

Bettors Fare Well Last Week
You would think with half of the underdogs winning that the sportsbooks would have done very well, but that wasn’t the case. The local books were able to scrap out a small win, but just about everyone else fared poorly as both the Packers and Jets found plenty of supporters.

Auburn Line Correct?
Auburn’s 3-point win over Oregon in the BCS title game landed just how the bookmakers thought, right? The game opened Auburn minus-3 at most sportsbooks, but dropped considerably to a pick’em at most places by kickoff. Most all of the power ratings had the game as an initial pick’em which has the question begging to ask, where did the “3” come from? No one wants to be out of line in a big game like that, but it appears that there was some early manipulation on the number that set the market, and it wasn‘t necessarily by any book in Las Vegas either.

It’s not unusual to see instances of pre-seeding games by Sharp groups early at a few sports books with hopes of influencing the entire market. All it takes is a few limit plays by respected players at respected books early on to get the ball rolling and then everyone else falls in line. When the Sharp’s desired line is set, they can bet over 20 times the amount initially seeded later at all the other sportsbooks who follow suit.

The final move proved wrong, other than those who pushed with Oregon, but most of the books still lost money on the game. It wasn’t a result of the possible manipulation, but rather because of extended risk from over a month of taking bowl parlays with Auburn or Oregon being the final leg.

NASCAR is close

Tension is building with NASCAR fans because the wait for the 53rd running of the Daytona 500 is too far away. It’s only been two months since the last race was run, but it feels like an eternity. This week, fans and bettors can get a sneak preview to who will be fast in next month’s speed weeks as the Sprint Cup series will be having a three-day test session at Daytona.

During a recent Goodyear tire test, it was found that the new Daytona surface made the cars a little too fast, so they will be experimenting with an even smaller restrictor plate than last season for the testing. However, don’t expect too much to change from last year. Those who were good in the plate races, namely the Childress and Ganassi teams, will be good again this year.

Just about every sportsbook has their Daytona 500 odds up. While the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book leads the way with the lowest theoretic hold percentage in the city, it’s still a good idea to check all the books around town to find value on certain drivers that maybe the Hilton considered more of a favorite. Must stops for finding early value are all of the Mirage properties, Lucky’s and the M Resort and Spa.

College Basketball Notes

Colorado Buffs For Real

We talked a little bit last week about how well Colorado has been playing this year despite playing a weak non-conference schedule, but the strategy has paid off as they have started Big 12 conference play with a 3-0 record. An 89-76 home trouncing over No. 8 Missouri was eye opening, but it still is just one game where anything can happen. But winning at No. 20 Kansas State Wednesday and then beating a very good Oklahoma State team on Saturday should send major alerts to the college basketball world that the Buffs are indeed for real for the first time since Chauncey Billups was there. This week they have winnable, but yet, tough road games at Nebraska and Oklahoma. Then the real test will come as they welcome No.3 Kansas to Boulder January 25.

In their win over Oklahoma State, the Buffs didn’t get to dictate the fast pace they would have liked, but they still sent the game over 143 ½. Surprisingly, despite Colorado running fast and wild all season, the move was on the under for the game. From the beginning of the season, up until now, Colorado may be the most rapidly adjusted team in all power ratings. The value will eventually shift against them, but as of now, betting OVER with them still looks to be the way to for a while.

Little Sisters of the Poor?
We watched the bias of voting during football season as TCU and Boise State were disrespected because of their conference affiliation and after this weeks College Basketball polls came out, we saw it again with San Diego State as they remained No. 6 with Duke sliding into No. 5 after their loss to Florida State. With big wins over UNLV and at New Mexico, the Aztecs warranted much more consideration than given.

Star Player Under the Radar

Hofstra senior guard Charles Jenkins doesn’t get too much publicity on a national level, but those who have been betting basketball this year know who he is, or the results of his play, because he’s been cashing in for them all season. Jenkins has upgraded an already great career at Hoftsra with a masterful senior season improving in every area which has led his team to an 11-6 record. He’s averaging 23.5 points-per-game and has reduced turnovers while also increasing assists from his previous three seasons. In the process, Jenkins has led the Pride to a 5-1 Colonial conference record straight up and ATS.

Good Teams Not Covering
It’s been almost two weeks since the No. 1 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes have covered a spread. It’s not even as if they have played the Big 10’s best teams since conference play started either. Saturday, they won by only 3-points as a 19-point favorite to Penn State. The Buckeyes look ripe for the upset this week as they play at Illinois on Saturday.

On the same note, Georgetown was on a five-game skid ATS until covering against Rutgers Saturday at a short price thanks, in part, to their rating shrinking. Because of that lower rating, there may some value this week as they play at Seton Hall and a home date against St. John’s.

Despite being undefeated this season, Syracuse hasn't been able to live up to their lofty rating as they have covered only seven games this season among their 18 wins. However, they have their longest ATS win streak currently going on right now with two in a row after beating Cincinnati.

Marquette Streaking
One of the best bets over the last three weeks has been taking Marquette against anyone. They have covered six games in a row while going 3-3 straight up. This week they’ll face DePaul and then travel to Notre Dame.

Oregon’s New Court is…Different

The Oregon basketball team christened their new $227 million arena last week with a win over USC, but all everyone could talk about was the actual floor. The intent of the floor was to pay homage to the beautiful Pacific Northwest by surrounding the court with a forest of brown-and-tan fir trees. It’s also to symbolize the 1939 Oregon squad who the National Championship known as “The Tall Firs”.

However, comments have been flowing from fans who dislike the design sating that the design looks like a mushroom trip gone bad, or even worse, looks like actual throw-up. The glare to TV viewers may be the most distracting part. It’s just an unnatural projection of colors that probably wasn’t well thought out, but liked so much by Nike owner, and Oregon Alum, Phillip Knight, who built the place, that everyone just let it go. Beyond all that, no one can even see the mid-court line, which is kind of an important part of the game.

Betting Notes From Las Vegas

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Jacory Harris Looks To Start For Miami

Prior to Hawaii falling badly to Tulsa as 10 ½-point favorites, the favorites of the first six bowl games had all covered. Even though there is no correlation with one game to another, it always seems like during the stretch run we’re about to see this week, that this is the time frame when things always level off in the favorite to underdog ratio.

The trend of taking underdogs at +8 or higher in pre-New Year’s day bowls is 1-2 thus far, but if playing money lines, you’re well ahead with Tulsa. This week we have two other opportunities to make the trend hold up with Army getting 8-points against SMU and Washington getting 13-points against Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl.

Even though the Huskies got blasted at home by the Cornhuskers 56-21 in September, it’s safe to say that Nebraska’s current squad isn’t the same amid several internal squabbles, the main one being quarterback Taylor Martinez who orchestrated all those early season blow outs. While Nebraska comes in somewhat of a team in disarray, Washington comes in having rallied to make a bowl by winning their final three games. The major wild card in all this is Huskies quarterback Jake Locker who has the ability to single handedly take over games. I’ll take the points in this one and look for Locker to close out his collegiate career with a great performance.

Before I get to my favorite Bowl game of the week, I’ll let in that I also have action on Notre Dame +3 over Miami in the Sun Bowl, South Carolina -3 against Florida State in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl and Michigan +5 ½ over Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl.

Jim Harbaugh has brilliantly led the way for Stanford

When reflecting back just four years ago, it’s amazing to believe that the Stanford Cardinal (11-1) were 1-11. It’s seems inconceivable that a major player in the BCS game could just sprout of the ground from nothing, but here they are, the No. 5 team in the nation being piloted by the probable No. 1 pick in the NFL draft with Andrew Luck. Monday’s Orange Bowl matchup with Virginia Tech (11-2) will be the first meeting ever between the two schools and will mark the first time that an ACC school has faced a Pac-10 team in the Orange Bowl.

Virginia Tech can also say they have had a major turnaround of sorts after starting the season 0-2 with a season opening loss to Boise State and then the let down game the very next week at home against James Madison. The Hokies got back to basics, played their traditionally tough defense and won out, securing their fourth ACC title since joining the league in 2004 and won at least 10 games for the seventh straight year, the only team currently in the nation to do so.

The transformation of Stanford into a power house can be attributed to Luck’s play, but much of the credit for creating a winning atmosphere and schemes to get the job done have to be given to head coach Jim Harbaugh who took over in 2007. He has mixed the best of both worlds into his offensive attack stemming from his college playing days as the quarterback for Bo Schembechler’s Michigan teams along with adding some modern wrinkles. The combination of old and new styles has worked brilliantly as Stanford has one of the most balanced attacks in the country.

Stanford will be Virginia Tech’s second team they have faced this season that was top-10 in the nation in passing efficiency. Boise State was the other. Had it not been for a second half melt down at Oregon, a game they led 31-24 at the half, Stanford would be playing Auburn for the title game. Laying only 3 ½-points with one of the top teams in the nation that can beat you so many ways, against a team that padded their record against weak ACC teams, seems like one of the better bets in New Years day bowls and beyond. Stanford 38, Virginia Tech 21

Twitter Value
Information is the name of the game for both bookmakers and bettors and currently, there’s no where does sports information come quicker than on Twitter. Last week alone, there were two major occurrences where key information was found first on Twitter before any of the sports books paid services relayed the info. On Tuesday night, the Kansas State basketball team had it’s two best players, including pre-season All-American Jacob Pullen, suspended for their game against UNLV. The news was first displayed on Twitter and didn’t reach the sports books until 20 minutes later giving a huge window of opportunity for bettors to take advantage of the info. K-State was a 4-point favorite prior to news of the suspensions and closed at -2. The Rebels won outright in a game that probably should been shaded closer to UNLV being a slight favorite after the news was known.

Another opportunity occurred Wednesday where rumors of Ohio State’s star football players might be suspended, including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, were swirling abound from quality sources on Twitter over an hour before news got to the sports books from their paid consultants. Even though it was revealed a day later that the NCAA would strangely allow the five players to play in their Bowl game and begin their 5-game suspensions next season, there was a large gap where the books were left unprotected with lack of information. Had the players been out for their Bowl game, Arkansas likely would have been a 6-point favorite or higher making it a 10-point swing.

For bettors looking to take advantage of this relatively new phenomenon, just sign up for a free account, follow a few sports writers around the country and ask to see key words such as “injury”, “suspension” or the actual name of a player your waiting information on. You’ll be surprised at how information comes just a little quicker than everyone else’s does. Quality information that I do see, I pass along as a re-tweet. You can follow me at MicahRoberts7.

College Basketball
It was kind of a quiet week over the Holiday weekend in college hoops, but we were further enlightened to a few teams that may have been perhaps rated too high as Baylor, Michigan State and Tennessee all took a step backwards with losses. Of the three, Michigan State will be the team to keep trusting as they head into conference play this week. They have four losses on the season, but all four have come at the hands of teams currently ranked. Last week it was Texas taking down the Spartans and before that, it was Syracuse, Duke and Connecticut, a regular who’s who of college basketball this season.

Baylor’s 77-71 loss to Washington State in Hawaii as 4-point favorites came as somewhat of a surprise even though the Cougars had been 9-1 coming in. Two days later, WSU lost to Butler as a 2-point favorite. We’re all still trying to figure out who the best team is in the weak Pac-10, but based on the play thus far, it could be the Cougars. Klay Thompson is averaging 22.3 point-per-game, up 3-points from his sophomore season last year. WSU can take a major step in taking conference supremacy this week on the road by doing the L.A. two-step and taking out UCLA and USC, something that seems entirely possible despite both USC and UCLA playing good basketball right now.

Tennessee is a team fading fast and at some point the rating on them may be adjusted too much giving them value. But let’s wait and see where they level off at, because they are free falling like rarely seen from a team that was once ranked in the top-10 after beating the likes of Villanova and Pittsburgh earlier in the year. They ended their three game losing streak by sweating out a home win against Belmont 66-65. This week they should be able to rebound with home games against Tennessee-Martin and Charleston before a big January 5 game against in-state rival Memphis. Then, the eight game SEC suspension of coach Bruce Pearl begins.

The games of the week both feature No. 18 Notre Dame (11-1) as they head into Big East play as one of the major surprises of the season so far. They welcome No. 9 Georgetown (11-1) on Wednesday then go to No. 5 Syracuse (13-0) Sunday. If their fate hasn’t been decided by then as to where they stack up, the following Tuesday they play No. 4 Connecticut (10-0).

The Irish have played only one ranked opponent this season and lost 72-58 to Kentucky. Look for them to play Georgetown tough and squeak out a home win, but to stumble by 10 at Syracuse. Based on those games and how they stand up to the class of the conference, a better assessment can be made for how they’ll perform for their January 4 game with U-Conn.

NFL Week 16 Recap

After getting pummeled all year by the sports books, bettors picked a fine time to ease the reins on their betting strategies and unit plays. Sure it was Christmas weekend, family was in town, or you had to be out of town, a portion of the betting funds had to be used to buy gifts, but when week 16 of the NFL came and passed, many were left off the gravy train. The favorites went 8-4 on Sunday with five of the six most weighted games coming in for the public, but unfortunately, about 25% of the regular weekly handle was missing.

“If it had been a normal NFL weekend, it would have been a very tough day, “ said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay, “Because of the Holiday season we were slow for most of the week until a major rush on Sunday morning.“

Kornegay reported that his sports book “broke about even” as was the case for many other books near the strip, but the local sports books took a much harder blow due to the high propensity of players playing parlays off the board and on cards. Even so, all the books combined were very fortunate that many of the regulars were busy with other matters due to the Holiday’s. Much of the lodged clientele that target Christmas as their vacation destination aren’t traditional sports bettors either. Had this week of results occurred in, say, week 10, it had the potential of being the worst day of the season for the sports books.

The only weighted public choice that faltered was the Chargers as 8-point favorites, who lost straight up to the Bengals. The Patriots, Ravens and Chiefs all came through for bettors in the early games and then in the late games, the Colts and Buccaneers led the way to more profits. Those wins, combined with the six college bowl favorites that covered earlier in the week, led to some serious risk and high payouts on multi-legged parlays.

Even the Sharps took somewhat of a hiatus because of the Holiday’s.

“We saw a few limit plays, but nothing like we normally see,’ said Kornegay, “It was more like half-limit plays mixed in with not many showing their plans until late Saturday night and Sunday morning.”

On a typical week, there usually is a surge of Sharp action when the line is first released on Monday’s. Then a little more of the Sharp’s plan is revealed on Thursday or Friday, with the final pieces of their plan unfolding on game day. Last week, not so much.

The Sharp plays of the week had the Bears and Raiders, with smaller movement on the Packers and Bills. The Bears had opened as 1 ½-point home favorites against the Jets, were bet down to -1 and then bet everywhere by Sunday morning pushing the game up to -3 even. The Raiders saw the same type of movement going the other way as they opened 3-point home underdogs to the Colts, but by kickoff the Colts were only -1 ½.

However, the public didn’t care what the Colts line was. They had seen enough last week in their win over Jacksonville that they felt their good old reliable team was back and that laying a field goal was easy. Same story with the Chiefs as the line was dropping on game day from -5 to -4 because of a few respected large plays, but the 6-0 home record had the average Joe taking Kansas City regardless of the line.

The one saving grace for the sports books over the weekend, beyond the Chargers losing, was the Cowboys losing Saturday night as 6 ½-point favorites at Arizona.

For those who missed out last week after a tough year, be thankful that we throw the entire year in the trash can, where it belongs, as week 17 begins a new year. Let’s make it a good one and hope that the tables turn for the bettor.

Eagles-Vikings
Tuesday night football gets it’s debut this week as the NFL treated one of it’s home games in Philadelphia like a rain out in baseball. I thought part of the beauty of football that separated it from other sports is that the fans and players both dealt with the elements as the dealer in the sky dealt them. What’s funny is that NBC made the switch to that game from their originally scheduled game of San Diego at Cincinnati to a game with a 14-point spread that was initially hoped to have Michael Vick playing against Brett Favre, a real ratings winner. Everyone who bet the game prior to the announcement of the date change has no action with all bets refunded. If looking to bet the game, you’ll have to use the new betting numbers of 133-134.

Bengals Shed Their Dead Skin
One week after ridding themselves of Terrell Owens and a 10 game losing streak, the Bengals played the Chargers without the other half of the Bozo-Ocho show. The Bengals played as smart and loose as they have all season in their 34-20 shocking win over the Chargers, a team who had to win to stay alive for the playoffs. I wonder what the duo will have to say on their show about the sudden wins correlating with their absence.

Tebow-rific

The public liked the Texans as a short -2 ½-point favorite against the Tim Tebow-led Broncos and it appeared that everyone would cruise to any easy win as Houston rolled out to a 17-0 halftime lead. Even though the Texans have the worst pass-defense in football, Tebow showed all the skills and grit that made him the scrutinized early pick by former Broncos coach Josh McDaniels by throwing for 308 yards and running for the winning score in a 24-23 win. Tebow engineered two fourth quarter touchdown drives that may give the faithful something to look forward to in 2011 after suffering through one of the worst seasons in Broncos history.

Freeman Free-Wheelin’
Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman threw five touchdown passes with no interceptions in a 38-15 rout over the Seahawks giving him a 23-6 ratio on the season in those categories. The win keeps the door to the playoffs still somewhat open with what could be a pivotal game next week at New Orleans for both teams depending on what the Saints do Monday night in Atlanta. It’s hard to believe that this kid is still only 22 years old with almost two full seasons as an NFL quarterback.

Playoff Picture Clearing
The AFC is pretty simple at this point, if the Colts (9-6) win at home against the Titans, they’re in. If the Colts lose and the Jaguars (8-7) win, then Jacksonville is in. Should both lose, the Colts advance. In the NFC, the winner of the Rams-Seahawks game advances. If the Packers (9-6) and Saints (10-4) win, they are in, but should they lose, then the door opens up for the Giants (9-6) and Buccaneers (9-6), if they win, in a crazy scenario.

College Betting Notes From Las Vegas - The Maaco Las Vegas Bowl

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Thanks to a few missed kicks, late season brain freezes and the injustice of the BCS system, the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl will have it’s best match-up ever pitting No. 10 Boise State (11-1) against No. 20 Utah (10-2). Not only does Wednesday’s night game at Sam Boyd Silver Bowl have the best combined records to be playing in Las Vegas, but it also is one the most intriguing competitive bowls of the season.

The only problem this west coast college football fan can see with the match-up is that they are playing each other rather than showing the SEC, Big-10, ACC or Big East that they can beat most of their teams. It’s almost like last season when they put TCU and Boise State in a closet as undefeated teams to play each other and essentially prove nothing to the east coast bias.

After Utah got whacked by TCU, when both were undefeated, they fell asleep at Notre Dame in an emotional downer stemming from the TCU game. However, the Utes bounced back with two gritty wins against San Diego State and BYU to close out the year. They come into this game having won their last nine straight bowl games, with two of those wins coming in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Boise State holds a 4-2 all-time edge against Utah and have won the last three -- the last coming in 2006, a 36-3 win. The Broncos have out-stated their opponents in 11 of their 12 games. While their offense has been impressive, their defense often gets overlooked. Western Athletic Conference team or not, allowing 13.6 a game and 259 yards a game, both good for fourth in the nation, is pretty impressive stuff.

Both teams have been successful against the point spread this season (Utah 7-4-1, BSU 8-4), but the public is sure to side with the Broncos after being severely let down by Utah against Notre Dame. A great trend to follow over the last few years has been to take the points in any game before New Year’s day when getting eight points or more. I can make a case for Washington, Tulsa and Army in that situation, but it’s hard to go against Boise State.

When thinking of Las Vegas, most think of heat, but the Vegas Bowl is usually pretty awful weather with cold, nasty winds. The extended forecast calls for possible showers at about 57 degrees which could be a good reason to consider under 61 points.

The best possible scenario -- coming from a homer Mountain West supporter -- is to send Utah to the Pac-10 with a bad loss and have it come from the conference’s new entry, Boise State. Even though it may not be talked about as a big deal by the coaches or players, their new conference affiliation for next season will be in the back of all their minds and pride will play a role.
I’ll take Boise State to win 35-16.

Hawaii and San Diego State are essentially playing home games for their bowls this week, but in the case of San Diego State, their fans rarely show up when playing at home. Maybe playing in their first bowl game since 1998 will get them fired up, or, maybe not, seeing how the fans witnessed three bowl losses in a row dating back to 1969.

Navy has the advantage of playing in front of a crowd that will flock to the stadium thanks to being in the backyard of the west coast’s largest Naval facility. Navy is also going for the second straight 10 win season which would be a first in academy history. Look for Midshipmen QB Ricky Dobbs to give the Aztecs fits with their triple option attack. I’ll take a shot with both underdogs in Tulsa and Navy.

College Hoops
Just when we thought UCSB’s improbable win as a 16-point underdog at No. 22 UNLV would be the upset of the week, a 4-7 Illinois-Chicago team upends No. 14 Illinois as a 17-point dog. Upsets like that are why we all love college basketball so much. There are only five players on the court and all it takes is for one hot hand to create some momentum for an underdog and have the favored team feeling some doubt which in turn ruins their confidence. In each case with UNLV and Illinois, their opponents took it to them and took away their confidence. Illinois shot only 32% from the field in their loss, a percentage that any team would be hard pressed to win with against anyone.

One week after praising the exploits of Tennessee for their extraordinary play despite the cloud over their program, they fall to Oakland and Charlotte as 12-point favorites in each. By the way, how is it that Vols coach Bruce Pearl is still on the sidelines despite his infractions when Michigan State’s Tom Izzo gets suspended one game for a minor infraction?

Central Florida is sure to be ranked this week after beating Miami giving them three wins against Florida colleges this season. Sophomore Marcus Jordan has doubled his scoring average this season to 16 points-per-game while shooting 49% from the field and 41% behind the arch. Up next for the undefeated Knights is Massachusetts and Furman. Their look ahead game is January 26 at Memphis.

The game of the week has Georgetown (10-1) visiting Memphis (8-1) where the Tigers are 7-0 at home this season. The Hoyas are currently ranked No. 1 in the RPI ratings because of their strength of schedule and opponents they have beat thus far. From a local stand point, UNLV (10-2) gets a major test to see where their psyche currently is when they travel to Kansas State (9-2) Tuesday night. Fortunately for the Rebels, the game will be played in Kansas City and not the on campus site in Manhattan. Unfortunately for the Rebels, they’ll be facing an angry talented team that was upended Saturday by Florida 57-44.

A team to keep an eye and find possible value in the next few weeks in Michigan (9-2). After a narrow loss to Syracuse and then UTEP on successive days, the Wolverine have ripped off six straight wins against the likes of Clemson, Utah and the suddenly potent Oakland squad. The Wolverines finished 7-11 in Big-10 play last season and 15-17 overall. Their Big-10 schedule begins next week with a home date against No. 17 Purdue and they should be getting points.

The kids get the holiday weekend off leaving action just through this Thursday. Have a great holiday season!

College Betting Notes From Las Vegas: TCU Getting No Respect After Boise State Loss

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

 

When Boise State lost at Nevada last Friday night, It did more than knock their own team out of a major bowl and losing millions in revenue for the school and their soon to be departed conference, it also changed the perception of how many feel about TCU. In two swift missed chip shots by Boise State kicker Kyle Brotzman, the entire nation is reanalyzing how they feel about TCU as if the two teams in their quest for respect in the BCS grand scheme of things were a package deal.

True, they each stood up for each other when the likes of ESPN’s Mark May downplayed their abilities or Ohio State’s President Gordon Gee questioned who they played, but really, what does one losing have to do with the other. They are separate schools in separate small conferences who both play good football, but now the experts would like to have you believe that they don’t belong and that the Boise State loss proves it. They’d like us all to believe now that one loss teams from the Big-10 and Pac-10 deserve more respect than an undefeated team from the Mountain West.

I know from the experts point of view, it’s just good spin and makes good television. But what else do they have to gain by standing on their pulpits bad mouthing a college football team. Why would some of these experts be so adamant about their stance on a bunch of impressionable collegiate athletes who are trying to finish their season undefeated, and yet are be told they aren't good enough and shouldn’t be allowed to prove it on the field. Is this how they reward their own affiliation with the major universities they played for or went to?

For Mark May, who went to Pittsburgh, why isn’t he campaigning for justice in the BCS system where his own conference -- the Big East -- gets an automatic bid when they have only West Virginia (No. 24) in the top-25 BCS rankings. That seems like a more righteous cause than spewing reasons why TCU and Boise State don’t belong. Let’s be real, the Big East should have been reanalyzed as an automatic qualifier after heavyweight Miami left the conference and Utah went undefeated and beat the BCS out of Alabama in the 2009 Sugar Bowl.

This years Big East representative in the BCS Fiesta Bowl will likely be 7-4 Connecticut, a team who was 3-4 at one stage of the season losing to the likes of Temple and Big East bottom feeders like Rutgers and Louisville. Meanwhile, Boise State will be shuffled off to some awful bowl because of their one loss on then No. 18 Nevada’s home field.

What also is surprisingly lost in this entire debate is that everyone has gotten away from the real injustice of not having a playoff system like every other sport. Even NASCAR has some sort of playoff system in place. Division 1-AA football just began their own playoffs last week to end their season and crown a true champion, but the big boys can‘t do it.

Maybe Gordon Gee is is plain and simply right when he made the following comments before Boise State's loss:."I don't know enough about the X's and O's of college football, but I do know, having been both a Southeastern Conference president and a Big Ten president, that it's like murderers' row every week for these schools. Until a university runs that gantlet, then there's some reason to believe that they may not be the best teams to [be] in the big ballgame."

Or, maybe he's simply right that he doesn't know enough about college football.

TCU still has an outside chance at making the title game should Auburn lose this weeks SEC Championship game against South Carolina or Oregon lose the civil war at Oregon State, but the experts would have you believe if that either of those teams lose that either No. 4 Stanford or No. 5 Wisconsin would be a more proper choice for the Championship game.

I was actually hoping that Ohio State would somehow pass Wisconsin in the BCS rankings to give us the classic Rose Bowl matchup against TCU, but TCU will now look to handle their business against a Wisconsin team who recently skated through the "gantlet" of their conference with beat downs on Indiana and a quarterback-less Northwestern.

Side Note: TCU announced that they have accepted an offer to join the Big East conference beginning in 2012 leaving the MWC in bad shape for future BCS considerations. With Utah, BYU and TCU gone, the MWC may as well just rename themselves the WAC. TCU apparently got tired of playing the game and seeing how one loss buried Boise State's bowl financial hopes, they figured they better get on board rather than being left out in the future.

Here’s a look at the potential BCS Bowls with lines from Kenny White:
BCS Title Game - Auburn (-1.5) vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl - TCU (-3) vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - Ohio State (-3) vs. Arkansas
Orange Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Stanford (-1)
Fiesta Bowl - Connecticut vs. Oklahoma (-7.5)

Sports Books Win

Despite having the possibility of mounting risk and liability with three straight days of action of college football over the holiday weekend, the sports books were able to beat down the public games enough to have a nice weekend. Upsets like Ohio losing to Kent State started Friday off nice for the house and was capped by Oregon and Boise State not covering. Oregon had opened as 18 ½-point favorites, but closed at -20, where Oregon ultimately won by 19. The -18 ½ and -19 spreads weren’t there very long so the middle opportunities were very limited with most of the public laying a higher number than the outcome.

Saturday’s games turned out just as good for the sports books as Oklahoma and Notre Dame had upset wins late that shifted the balance in favor of the house.

College Basketball Notes

Teams on the Rise
Notre Dame (7-0): Of all the Big East Heavyweights, Notre Dame may get lost in the shuffle. Their unranked as of now, but that could change soon after a couple of impressive win against a ranked Georgia squad, stomping Cal and then beating Wisconsin Sunday.

UNLV (6-0): The Rebels won the 76 classic in Anaheim by beating a Virginia Tech team who was ranked two weeks ago and was projected by many to compete for the ACC title. Lon Kruger has this team playing great team defense, hustling and playing smart basketball with quality shot selections.

Texas A&M (5-1): Their week started out with a 67-65 Thanksgiving loss to Boston College, but ended with wins over Manhattan and then beating No. 20 Temple 54-51. They should pad their record with three easy wins until a big match against Washington in two weeks.

Teams Falling:
Washington (3-2) & Pac-10: The Huskies were previously ranked No. 11 in the nation, but were exposed in losses to Kentucky and Michigan State. The entire conference is under the microscope as they look to prove that their collective troubles last year was just an anomaly. Last years champions, Cal, can’t score and thus far the conference is 1-5 against ranked teams.

Temple (3-2): They were ranked No. 20 last week, but losses to Cal and Texas A&M really showed their weakness, which is overall shooting…from anywhere. They haven’t found anyone to take over the void left by last years leading scorer Ryan Brooks. It won’t get any easier as the Owls play at Maryland and then have a home game against Georgetown over the next two weeks.

North Carolina (4-2): Somehow the Tar Heels remained ranked after losing to Vanderbilt and Minnesota two weeks ago, but their struggle at home Sunday against Charleston just shouldn’t happen. They rallied to win 74-69 and avoided being beaten by the Cougars for the second straight year. We’ll quickly find out what this team is truly made of this week as they’ll face the ranked teams of Illinois and Kentucky. It would be shocking if there were able to get a split.

Game of the Week
Michigan State (5-1) at Duke (6-0)
Wednesday, December 1 - 6:30 pm (PDT)
The No. 1 team in the nation gets tested early with one of the nation's best in the Spartans and then have to face Butler on Saturday. So far, Duke is hitting on all cylinders as they are shooting 50% from the field and 44 % from the three-point line. They are deep on the bench and have five players currently averaging double-digits in points led by Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler at 16 ppg each.

Michigan State’s only loss came due to the hot shooting of Connecticut’s Kemba Walker, but their own trio of stars could give Duke a major scare at Cameron Indoor Arena. Senior guard Kalin Lucas has elevated his game to new heights this season and will have to come up big in this one like he did against Washington when he put 29 points that including 4-of-5 from beyond the arch. Durrell Summers and Draymond Green have already picked up the slack left by the departed Raymar Morgan.

The Spartans have the talent and senior leadership to pull off an upset win at a tough place like this, but as hard as it may be to believe, this Duke team may be even better than last years title winning team. I’ll take Duke to win in a high scoring game, 92-83.