College Betting Notes From Las Vegas - The Maaco Las Vegas Bowl

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Thanks to a few missed kicks, late season brain freezes and the injustice of the BCS system, the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl will have it’s best match-up ever pitting No. 10 Boise State (11-1) against No. 20 Utah (10-2). Not only does Wednesday’s night game at Sam Boyd Silver Bowl have the best combined records to be playing in Las Vegas, but it also is one the most intriguing competitive bowls of the season.

The only problem this west coast college football fan can see with the match-up is that they are playing each other rather than showing the SEC, Big-10, ACC or Big East that they can beat most of their teams. It’s almost like last season when they put TCU and Boise State in a closet as undefeated teams to play each other and essentially prove nothing to the east coast bias.

After Utah got whacked by TCU, when both were undefeated, they fell asleep at Notre Dame in an emotional downer stemming from the TCU game. However, the Utes bounced back with two gritty wins against San Diego State and BYU to close out the year. They come into this game having won their last nine straight bowl games, with two of those wins coming in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Boise State holds a 4-2 all-time edge against Utah and have won the last three -- the last coming in 2006, a 36-3 win. The Broncos have out-stated their opponents in 11 of their 12 games. While their offense has been impressive, their defense often gets overlooked. Western Athletic Conference team or not, allowing 13.6 a game and 259 yards a game, both good for fourth in the nation, is pretty impressive stuff.

Both teams have been successful against the point spread this season (Utah 7-4-1, BSU 8-4), but the public is sure to side with the Broncos after being severely let down by Utah against Notre Dame. A great trend to follow over the last few years has been to take the points in any game before New Year’s day when getting eight points or more. I can make a case for Washington, Tulsa and Army in that situation, but it’s hard to go against Boise State.

When thinking of Las Vegas, most think of heat, but the Vegas Bowl is usually pretty awful weather with cold, nasty winds. The extended forecast calls for possible showers at about 57 degrees which could be a good reason to consider under 61 points.

The best possible scenario -- coming from a homer Mountain West supporter -- is to send Utah to the Pac-10 with a bad loss and have it come from the conference’s new entry, Boise State. Even though it may not be talked about as a big deal by the coaches or players, their new conference affiliation for next season will be in the back of all their minds and pride will play a role.
I’ll take Boise State to win 35-16.

Hawaii and San Diego State are essentially playing home games for their bowls this week, but in the case of San Diego State, their fans rarely show up when playing at home. Maybe playing in their first bowl game since 1998 will get them fired up, or, maybe not, seeing how the fans witnessed three bowl losses in a row dating back to 1969.

Navy has the advantage of playing in front of a crowd that will flock to the stadium thanks to being in the backyard of the west coast’s largest Naval facility. Navy is also going for the second straight 10 win season which would be a first in academy history. Look for Midshipmen QB Ricky Dobbs to give the Aztecs fits with their triple option attack. I’ll take a shot with both underdogs in Tulsa and Navy.

College Hoops
Just when we thought UCSB’s improbable win as a 16-point underdog at No. 22 UNLV would be the upset of the week, a 4-7 Illinois-Chicago team upends No. 14 Illinois as a 17-point dog. Upsets like that are why we all love college basketball so much. There are only five players on the court and all it takes is for one hot hand to create some momentum for an underdog and have the favored team feeling some doubt which in turn ruins their confidence. In each case with UNLV and Illinois, their opponents took it to them and took away their confidence. Illinois shot only 32% from the field in their loss, a percentage that any team would be hard pressed to win with against anyone.

One week after praising the exploits of Tennessee for their extraordinary play despite the cloud over their program, they fall to Oakland and Charlotte as 12-point favorites in each. By the way, how is it that Vols coach Bruce Pearl is still on the sidelines despite his infractions when Michigan State’s Tom Izzo gets suspended one game for a minor infraction?

Central Florida is sure to be ranked this week after beating Miami giving them three wins against Florida colleges this season. Sophomore Marcus Jordan has doubled his scoring average this season to 16 points-per-game while shooting 49% from the field and 41% behind the arch. Up next for the undefeated Knights is Massachusetts and Furman. Their look ahead game is January 26 at Memphis.

The game of the week has Georgetown (10-1) visiting Memphis (8-1) where the Tigers are 7-0 at home this season. The Hoyas are currently ranked No. 1 in the RPI ratings because of their strength of schedule and opponents they have beat thus far. From a local stand point, UNLV (10-2) gets a major test to see where their psyche currently is when they travel to Kansas State (9-2) Tuesday night. Fortunately for the Rebels, the game will be played in Kansas City and not the on campus site in Manhattan. Unfortunately for the Rebels, they’ll be facing an angry talented team that was upended Saturday by Florida 57-44.

A team to keep an eye and find possible value in the next few weeks in Michigan (9-2). After a narrow loss to Syracuse and then UTEP on successive days, the Wolverine have ripped off six straight wins against the likes of Clemson, Utah and the suddenly potent Oakland squad. The Wolverines finished 7-11 in Big-10 play last season and 15-17 overall. Their Big-10 schedule begins next week with a home date against No. 17 Purdue and they should be getting points.

The kids get the holiday weekend off leaving action just through this Thursday. Have a great holiday season!

Roberts' Week 9 College Football Plays: Spartans and Utes Best Bets

Here’s a look at the College Football Games I played this Week:

Michigan State +7 @ Iowa
Clemson -7 @ Boston College
Baylor +7 ½ @ Texas
Stanford -7 ½ @ Washington
Arizona -9 @ UCLA
California +2 ½ @ Oregon State
Utah -7 @ Air Force
Ohio State -25 @ Minnesota
Michigan -2 ½  @ Penn State
USC +7 vs. Oregon
Hawaii -14 ½ vs. Idaho

Week 9 College Football Betting Moves From Las Vegas

Pac-10 Stumbles Out Of The Gate Losing Two Straight To Non-BCS Mtn. West

The Pac-10 has stumbled out of the blocks in the bowl season. After going 5-0 last season in bowl games, the Pac-10 is now 0-2 in their first two bowl games against the non-BCS conference of the Mountain West.

Oregon State was whacked by BYU 44-20 in the Las Vegas as underdogs on Tuesday and Utah handled California as an underdog 37-27 in the Poinsetta Bowl Wednesday.

The win for Utah was their ninth bowl win in a row tying them for second all-time with USC from the John Wayne-led years and just beneath Florida State’s 11 in a row set from 1985-96.

The win also serves notice to the BCS committee who has shunned non-BCS conferences, dismissing their validity in the overall scheme. The pairing of the undefeated teams of TCU and Boise State -- the only two non-BCS conference teams playing in BCS bowl games, should serve notice of what the committee’s agenda is. Let them knock each other around without giving them their due by beating a BCS conference team.

Utah is the original BCS buster knocking off Pittsburgh in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl and routing Alabama in last years Sugar Bowl.

The Pac-10 has five more teams with a chance to salvage some conference pride starting with the heavily favored USC against Boston College in Saturday’s Emerald Bowl. The Trojans opened as 9-point favorites and have been bet down to 7 with many feeling of the two teams, B.C. is the happier of the two to be playing in the pre-New Years day bowl.

The only Pac-10 underdog of their remaining games is Stanford getting 8.5-points from Oklahoma in the Sun Bowl. This game had bounced around from an opener of nine all the down to 7.5 but the the recent failures of the first two Pac-10 representatives have many feeling less about the strength on the conference.

In other Pac-10 games, Arizona still holds on as a 1-point favorite against Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl. UCLA, the weakest of the Pac-10 teams, has been bumped to a 5.5-point favorite over Temple in the Eagle Bank Bowl in Washington D.C.

Oregon has been seen as high as a 4-point favorite at some books over Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, but is a consensus 3.5-point favorite.

Thus far into the bowl season the underdogs are 4-1 with all four underdogs winning straight up heading into Thursday's Hawaii Bowl with Nevada and SMU. Nevada had been as high as a 16.5-point favorite, but has been seen as low as 11.5 on game day.

The only other real movement involves two of the BCS bowls where Florida has gone to an 11.5-poinit favorite over Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl. The Bear Cats lost head coach Brian Kelly to Notre Dame following their Big East champiosnhip game win giving the appearance to many that there is no captain on the ship.

After seeing the bulk of the early action come on Alabama laying the number all the way up to 5.5-points over Texas, it’s been all Long Horn money since dropping the line to 3.5 -- a half-point below what the opener negan with. Texas backers have cited Alabama as being too one dimensional on offense to hang with a balanced attack of Texas as reasons for the support.

Roberts College Football Selections: Oregon St, Cal, and Nevada Look Like the Plays

Tuesday 5:00 pm (PT)
Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon State -2.5 vs. BYU: Offensive attack and speed of Beavers will be too much for BYU to match up against. The Pac-10 is 7-1 in last eight games against Mountain West teams and 3-0 this season. OSU Coach Mike Riley is 5-0 in Bowls while BYU is playing in their fifth straight Las Vegas Bowl going 2-2.

Wednesday 5:00 pm (PT)
Poinsetta Bowl @ Jack Murphy Stadium - San Diego, CA
California -3 vs. Utah: The Utes have lost two of their last three games coming into this Bowl while Cal won two of their last three that include beating the ranked Pac-10 teams of Arizona and Stanford. This is another matchup of the Pac-10 going against the Mountain West where the Pac-10 has dominated. Shane Vereen has been every bit as good as Jahvid Best in the final four games since Best’s injury carrying them to big wins.

Thursday 5:00 pm (PT)
Hawaii Bowl
Nevada -12.5 vs. SMU: Due to Nevada’s top running back Vai Taua being out this game has dropped from being as high as 16.5 to where it is now. But have no fear, the Nevada system led by Colin Kaepernick will be as effective as ever in the pistol offense. The back-up RB’s of Lampford Mark and Mike Ball have been equally as effective when given the chance. Ball had a 184-yard game against UNLV this season while Mark went for over 100 against San Jose State in limited play.

SMU’s passing game led by former Hawaii coach June Jones will put points on the board and help get the total over 72.5, but they will not be able to stop the Wolf Pack throughout the game. Nevada has been one of the better cover teams all season rolling up big scores and it will continue this week.

I really hate to go with favorites in the Bowl games, especially after the first three bowls have seen favorites go 1-2 -- including Wyoming's upset of Fresno State as a 12.5-point dog, but all three of these favorites have a much greater edge over their opponents than the spread indicates.

I'll have more selections listed Friday for Saturday and Sunday's bowl games.