Las Vegas Sports Book Betting Moves For The Playoffs & Other Strip Notes

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

M Resort & Spa Sports Book VIP Seats

I make my weekly rounds of phone calls to different Sports Book Directors around the city to talk about whatever is going in their sports books to get a vibe on what’s happening, but on Thursday, I experienced a definite first. When M Resort & Spa Director Mike Colbert answered the phone, he was extremely preoccupied, but it wasn’t just being busy as normal with booking games. Colbert informed me -- with a proud happiness in his tone -- that he was at the hospital with his wife who had just given birth to his first child, a 9.2 pound baby boy named Michael Alexander.

After exchanges of how happy I was for him, I didn’t want to take any more of his time, but I couldn’t help but ask how he was going to balance the new arrangement in his life. To give an idea of why I would ask such a question like that, it’s only because Colbert is one of the most tireless bosses I’ve ever seen in the sports book industry. Whatever day, or hour of the night it is that I have visited the M, he’s always there. Whenever I call to get a recap on the late Sunday games, he’s always there. I’m still not sure he’s ever taken a vacation, let alone two consecutive days off, since the M opened it’s doors almost two years ago.

Hearing the smile in Colbert’s voice, he simply said, “Michael’s going to make me work harder, because now I have something to really look forward to, keeping me focused for the long term and make his life the best it can be.”

As for when exactly he’s going to be able to find time to sleep, Colbert said, “I‘m already getting practice with the sleepless nights.”

While at the hospital, Colbert also had his computer and cell phone on hand so he could take the occasional glimpses at what was going on within the operation he runs for Cantor Gaming, which now includes the Cosmopolitan and the New Tropicana, and soon will take over the new Hard Rock Hotel race and sports book.

“I’m keeping up to date with what bets we are taking and what direction we want to go with games on sizeable bets.”

Before I could wish him all best, because I didn’t want to take up any more his valuable time, he began talking about the games in our regular normal fashion of discussion. He was probably as excited as I’ve ever heard him, for obvious reasons, but he was also really looking forward to the weekend of games. So we talked a little more.

Colbert sees value with the Jets at New England Sunday

“I think there is value with the Jets this weekend, plus-9 is too many,” Colbert explained, “Even though they got rocked in that Monday night game, the Sharp money was with the Jets at plus-4 in that game. We’ve had minus-7 ½ with the Patriots up all week and have had no takers leading me to believe that is closer to the right number since everyone else is at 8 ½ or 9.”

As of Thursday afternoon, there weren’t even any minus-8‘s out there. If there was anyone out there with large money that liked New England -- regardless of the time of week -- that bet would have been made already at the M, and it hasn’t. It doesn’t mean that the Jets are going to win or cover, but it does definitely give some insight to what the sharpest bettors in town are thinking, people who win more often than not with large straight bets.

Another game Colbert had vastly different from everyone else in town, and the world for that matter, was the Falcons game where he has been steady with the Falcons as a 1-point (-125) favorite while everyone else is either -2, -2 ½, or -3 (even).

“I’m keeping the number down early just to avoid piling up extended risk on teaser action crossing too far over a key number with Atlanta. The public loves the Packers and will be all over them and I would tend to lean that way myself.”

Colbert thinks the biggest blowout of the week will come in Chicago with the Bears as a 10-point favorite.

“Seattle has a very soft defense and just beat a team with a similarly soft defense who was on the road. Whoever the Seahawks put behind center is going to have a rough day against the Bears defense, one that I’d put the closest to the league’s best with the Steelers.”

History shows getting +3 and a hook in this series is nice

The game that has got the most action at the M from the Sharps, of what little has came in already, has been the Ravens who were bet as a 3 ½-point (-115) underdog. The play may have more to do with the fact that over 18% of this years NFL games landed on “3” and the Ravens and Steelers were prominently featured in those statistics with both their games landing. In fact, these two teams rarely play a game where it doesn’t land on “3”.

The M currently has Pittsburgh as 3 ½-point (EVEN) favorites while several books are reluctant to get off the key number placing the Steelers at minus-3 (-120 or -125). The South Point Sports Book is the only place in Las Vegas that is Steelers minus-3 ½ flat. They are the only book in town to use exclusively flat numbers in their football lineup.

Congratulations again to Mr. and Mrs. Colbert and welcome to the world Michael Alexander. And also, much apologies for the intrusion, but thanks as always for the insights.


Cantor Gaming Growing in Las Vegas
Cantor Gaming currently has remote betting stations set up in the Cosmpolitan and New Tropicana giving bettors on the strip a new opportunity for more variety in betting lines among all the other well known places. The Tropicana’s new race and sports book is scheduled to open January 31st along with the Hard Rock’s while the Cosmopolitan’s new site will open in mid-February. I have viewed the plans for the new sites and they will be quite elegant, and very popular with both locals and tourists.

Cosmopolitan, A Force on the Vegas Scene
As for each of the individual properties, and their casino/entertainment layout, I have seen both and I’m very impressed. The Tropicana now has a feel of being at a South Beach resort with everything so clean and white, while the Cosmopolitan doesn’t look like anything I‘ve ever seen.

Chandelier Lounge at the Cosmopolitan Las Vegas

I was completely blown away by this property. It’s in Las Vegas, right in between the Bellagio and City Center, but it doesn’t feel like Las Vegas. It’s more like being at an exclusively party at some super rich guys modern house in Europe. Between the fashionable chic design of the property, soft tones of the lighting, the beautiful people everywhere and the layers of entertainment on each floor, I hardly noticed that it actually was a casino.

My favorite place was this three layered lounge with spiral staircases adjoining each differing level appropriately called the “Chandelier Bar“ because of the long draping lines of small crystals that form a surrounding sheer curtain. It might be the most relaxed environment, yet upscale, that I’ve ever been in which is saying a lot because I have been to quite a few bars and lounges around the world. The music was perfect, not too low, or too high like a night club, and I didn’t even know who it was playing. It‘s a place you could take any executive, co-worker, family or girlfriend -- like I did -- and all equally find it a quality experience that appeals to all.

For all that a giant Chandelier’s regal beauty represents in class and style for high-end hotels or mansions, the Cosmo got it dead on right with the theme that has never -- to my knowledge -- been tried.

Las Vegas Football Betting Notes

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today - Las Vegas

Really, Really High-End Contest
The M Resort is going to new heights in Las Vegas with the unveiling of the "Cantor High Stakes" football contest. Entry fee is $100,000 with a goal of getting at least 20 entrants which would make the prize money a cool $2 million.

"We wanted to do something different this year as opposed to what all the other places are doing around town," said M Sports Book Director Mike Colbert. "We’ve already got six entries with commitments from others. With that type of entry fee, I think this appeals to several levels of players ranging from pro athletes, celebrities, professional poker players, high stakes casino gamblers and of course high end sports bettors."

The entrants will have to make five selections a week versus the listed spread. By attracting the kind of personalities that will be able to afford that type of fee, this contest should be a weekly reality TV show on VH-1 or Versus. It’s got everything that a reality show needs: celebrities, people with lots of money – which always creates drama and a big prize at the end of the rainbow. Sounds like a ratings winner to me.

Sports Books Waiting on Favre

Since most of the Las Vegas sports books have week one NFL lines up already, they have already been put into a tough dilemma as we all wait for the Brett Favre soap opera to end. Many sports books opened the Saints at home as a 4-point favorite against the Vikings, but since the latest saga, they have either taken the game off the board or moved the game to -6 or 6½, adjusting as news from the drama leaks out through the press.

Favre is one of the few players in the NFL who is worth 3-points to his team. Should it be announced officially that Favre will not play, expect the line to shoot past the all important barrier of 7 and go right to 7½. So if you’re willing to bet on Favre’s drama – believing he won’t play, laying the Saints right now is the value play.

Preseason Teasers
Not a lot of Las Vegas sports books take NFL preseason teasers because of the uncertainty of who is playing and for how long. All the sides rarely go over a 3-point favorite and none of the totals is over 36 points, so there is a perception that there could be lots of value for the players with teasers in the preseason.

But because of all those uncertainties, it’s just as tough to gauge for the player as it is for the bookmaker, at least until all the good information comes in regarding playing time.

If we look back at the first full week of preseason last year, you’ll see that there was no advantage in playing the teasers, especially with totals. All 16 games were decided over or under the listed total and needed no help from a teaser meaning that there were no two-way wins on any game total. By just laying 11 to 10 odds on a straight bet worrying about one game, you fared much better than laying the juiced up teasers for two games. Overall, totals went 10-6 in favor of the under. Out of the 16 games, five of the games were two-way wins on the sides if using 6½ point teasers.

In the NFL regular season – if the price is right – the sharp players from all over love playing two team teasers because they know that the regular season line is the most proper of any major sport and getting an additional six points is huge value. The preseason a is crap shoot with rag lines and half the teams using the games as a means to learn more about unknown players with little emphasis on winning.

The only advice I could offer on teasers is to go with the biggest moves by game day – some of which can move up to six points – and tease the game the same way the major line moves go. The moves are all based on playing time information and a coach revealing his game plans to the press. The large moves happen because the preseason limits are so small, just because of those types of things. There is no line that a book will stay on because of those factors, which is why you shouldn’t see any book use money (-3 -120) attached to key numbers, like most do in the regular season.

M Resorts In-Game Wagering
This football season will have a new wrinkle with In-Game wagering as it adds player yardage props as the game goes on. Bettors will be able to now bet the game side and totals as well as use their fantasy football knowledge to bet against the house. They’ll have the yardage props available through three quarters of action. During each week of the season they’ll offer the two best games at 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. along with the Sunday and Monday night games. The same In-Game wagering system is available at the Venetian and Palazzo as well.