Big Favorites losing helps books to Week 13 win

Teaser bettors burned by Patriots and Bears losing outright.

The sports books have all kinds of ways to make money on an NFL Sunday against the betting public, but the surest way of all is to get a couple of the big favorites to lose outright and in Week 13, two of the biggest numbers went down.

“The Patriots losing turned out to be our best game of the day,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “We had give back a lot on the Eagles money-line just to balance out some of the teaser money we had extended on the Patriots, but it still turned out to be our best decision.”

The Eagles actually looked like the team we all thought they were during the preseason with its impressive 35-28 win at New England, a score that really wasn’t that close. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense continue to show the effects of not having all their key starters.

On Sunday, both tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Julian Edelman were out. The Patriots have now failed to cover its past four games, which not so ironically started with the Giants game which is when Edelman got hurt. Coupled with their Week 12 loss at Denver, Sunday’s defeat was the Patriots first of the back-to-back nature since 2012.

“After that,” Osborne continued, “the next best game was in the morning with the 49ers beating the Bears, who were one of the most popular teams with parlays.“

The 49ers improbable 26-20 win at Chicago, led by Blaine Gabbert showing everyone he has all kinds of athletic skills and can lead a team to victory just like he did with such regularity in college. Gabbert had been labeled as the worst back-up in the league, but he came up with his best NFL performance that included a 44-yard TD run in the late fourth quarter to tie it up 20-20 and then in overtime he threw a beautiful deep ball down the left sideline to Torrey Smith that covered 71-yards for the game winning TD.

With two of the biggest underdogs cashing and killing off a large chunk of the parlay and teaser risk and then also getting the Saints to cover 6-points at home against new public favorite Carolina, you might think the books had one of their better weekends, but that wasn’t the case.

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Las Vegas Sports Book Betting Moves For The Playoffs & Other Strip Notes

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

M Resort & Spa Sports Book VIP Seats

I make my weekly rounds of phone calls to different Sports Book Directors around the city to talk about whatever is going in their sports books to get a vibe on what’s happening, but on Thursday, I experienced a definite first. When M Resort & Spa Director Mike Colbert answered the phone, he was extremely preoccupied, but it wasn’t just being busy as normal with booking games. Colbert informed me -- with a proud happiness in his tone -- that he was at the hospital with his wife who had just given birth to his first child, a 9.2 pound baby boy named Michael Alexander.

After exchanges of how happy I was for him, I didn’t want to take any more of his time, but I couldn’t help but ask how he was going to balance the new arrangement in his life. To give an idea of why I would ask such a question like that, it’s only because Colbert is one of the most tireless bosses I’ve ever seen in the sports book industry. Whatever day, or hour of the night it is that I have visited the M, he’s always there. Whenever I call to get a recap on the late Sunday games, he’s always there. I’m still not sure he’s ever taken a vacation, let alone two consecutive days off, since the M opened it’s doors almost two years ago.

Hearing the smile in Colbert’s voice, he simply said, “Michael’s going to make me work harder, because now I have something to really look forward to, keeping me focused for the long term and make his life the best it can be.”

As for when exactly he’s going to be able to find time to sleep, Colbert said, “I‘m already getting practice with the sleepless nights.”

While at the hospital, Colbert also had his computer and cell phone on hand so he could take the occasional glimpses at what was going on within the operation he runs for Cantor Gaming, which now includes the Cosmopolitan and the New Tropicana, and soon will take over the new Hard Rock Hotel race and sports book.

“I’m keeping up to date with what bets we are taking and what direction we want to go with games on sizeable bets.”

Before I could wish him all best, because I didn’t want to take up any more his valuable time, he began talking about the games in our regular normal fashion of discussion. He was probably as excited as I’ve ever heard him, for obvious reasons, but he was also really looking forward to the weekend of games. So we talked a little more.

Colbert sees value with the Jets at New England Sunday

“I think there is value with the Jets this weekend, plus-9 is too many,” Colbert explained, “Even though they got rocked in that Monday night game, the Sharp money was with the Jets at plus-4 in that game. We’ve had minus-7 ½ with the Patriots up all week and have had no takers leading me to believe that is closer to the right number since everyone else is at 8 ½ or 9.”

As of Thursday afternoon, there weren’t even any minus-8‘s out there. If there was anyone out there with large money that liked New England -- regardless of the time of week -- that bet would have been made already at the M, and it hasn’t. It doesn’t mean that the Jets are going to win or cover, but it does definitely give some insight to what the sharpest bettors in town are thinking, people who win more often than not with large straight bets.

Another game Colbert had vastly different from everyone else in town, and the world for that matter, was the Falcons game where he has been steady with the Falcons as a 1-point (-125) favorite while everyone else is either -2, -2 ½, or -3 (even).

“I’m keeping the number down early just to avoid piling up extended risk on teaser action crossing too far over a key number with Atlanta. The public loves the Packers and will be all over them and I would tend to lean that way myself.”

Colbert thinks the biggest blowout of the week will come in Chicago with the Bears as a 10-point favorite.

“Seattle has a very soft defense and just beat a team with a similarly soft defense who was on the road. Whoever the Seahawks put behind center is going to have a rough day against the Bears defense, one that I’d put the closest to the league’s best with the Steelers.”

History shows getting +3 and a hook in this series is nice

The game that has got the most action at the M from the Sharps, of what little has came in already, has been the Ravens who were bet as a 3 ½-point (-115) underdog. The play may have more to do with the fact that over 18% of this years NFL games landed on “3” and the Ravens and Steelers were prominently featured in those statistics with both their games landing. In fact, these two teams rarely play a game where it doesn’t land on “3”.

The M currently has Pittsburgh as 3 ½-point (EVEN) favorites while several books are reluctant to get off the key number placing the Steelers at minus-3 (-120 or -125). The South Point Sports Book is the only place in Las Vegas that is Steelers minus-3 ½ flat. They are the only book in town to use exclusively flat numbers in their football lineup.

Congratulations again to Mr. and Mrs. Colbert and welcome to the world Michael Alexander. And also, much apologies for the intrusion, but thanks as always for the insights.


Cantor Gaming Growing in Las Vegas
Cantor Gaming currently has remote betting stations set up in the Cosmpolitan and New Tropicana giving bettors on the strip a new opportunity for more variety in betting lines among all the other well known places. The Tropicana’s new race and sports book is scheduled to open January 31st along with the Hard Rock’s while the Cosmopolitan’s new site will open in mid-February. I have viewed the plans for the new sites and they will be quite elegant, and very popular with both locals and tourists.

Cosmopolitan, A Force on the Vegas Scene
As for each of the individual properties, and their casino/entertainment layout, I have seen both and I’m very impressed. The Tropicana now has a feel of being at a South Beach resort with everything so clean and white, while the Cosmopolitan doesn’t look like anything I‘ve ever seen.

Chandelier Lounge at the Cosmopolitan Las Vegas

I was completely blown away by this property. It’s in Las Vegas, right in between the Bellagio and City Center, but it doesn’t feel like Las Vegas. It’s more like being at an exclusively party at some super rich guys modern house in Europe. Between the fashionable chic design of the property, soft tones of the lighting, the beautiful people everywhere and the layers of entertainment on each floor, I hardly noticed that it actually was a casino.

My favorite place was this three layered lounge with spiral staircases adjoining each differing level appropriately called the “Chandelier Bar“ because of the long draping lines of small crystals that form a surrounding sheer curtain. It might be the most relaxed environment, yet upscale, that I’ve ever been in which is saying a lot because I have been to quite a few bars and lounges around the world. The music was perfect, not too low, or too high like a night club, and I didn’t even know who it was playing. It‘s a place you could take any executive, co-worker, family or girlfriend -- like I did -- and all equally find it a quality experience that appeals to all.

For all that a giant Chandelier’s regal beauty represents in class and style for high-end hotels or mansions, the Cosmo got it dead on right with the theme that has never -- to my knowledge -- been tried.

Eagles Reid Doesn't Say So, But It Looks Like He'll Be Resting Playing Against Dallas

By Jeff McLane
Inquirer Staff Writer

Even stone-faced Andy Reid couldn't mask the obvious.

The Eagles' coach wouldn't come out and say that he was resting most of his starters in Sunday's regular-season finale. But with a number of significant regulars injured; with the team coming off a short week; and, most important, with the first round of the playoffs looming, Reid will use an otherwise-meaningless game against the Cowboys to give his reserves some extra playing time.

"Your roster's not big enough where you can" sit every starter, Reid said Friday behind a devilish grin. "You have to be careful."

Reid wouldn't even declare Michael Vick out, even though the quarterback didn't take a practice repetition all week. Kevin Kolb did and will start, team sources have confirmed. Vick suffered a bruised thigh on Tuesday against the Vikings. While Vick is officially listed as questionable for Dallas, of greater concern is how ready he'll be in a week.

"He's making progress, and that's a plus," Reid said.

The NFC East champion Eagles have the No. 3 seed locked up and will face one of three teams - the Packers, Giants, or Buccaneers - on either Jan. 8 or 9. A Saturday game would mean the Eagles, who had the Minnesota game controversially pushed back two days, would have to play three games in 12 days.

"They're aware of it, the crazy schedule there," Reid said of the NFL schedulers. "I'm sure they're taking it into consideration."

An extra day of rest would benefit not only Vick, who has taken a beating this season, but several other Eagles. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson (foot), cornerback Asante Samuel (knee), tackle Winston Justice (knee), and defensive tackle Trevor Laws (shoulder/chest) also didn't practice this week.

Put in this position before, Reid has always elected to rest most of his starters. His decision this time was clouded by a woeful effort against Minnesota in which the Eagles bungled away any hope of a first-round bye.

"We had too many penalties, substitutions were off, and that's my responsibility to get that right," Reid said. "And so, we're aware of that now, now we just have to make sure we do it right and get it straight."

Reid had to weigh the possibility of going into the postseason off a two-game losing streak against resting his regulars. He chose the latter even though the 5-10 Cowboys, out of the playoff picture, are expected to play full-speed.

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Las Vegas Sports Book Tale: Mr Big and The Celebrity Pack-Mules

by Micah Roberts
Gaming Today - Las Vegas

Usually we use the term "pack-mule" as a reference to drug smugglers crossing the border, but here in Las Vegas we have our own version of a "pack-mule," one who attempts to run bets deceptively to sports books all over the city.


This is a tale about a businessman and his Vegas pack-mules. No names will be mentioned, just to protect all involved, but this tale is based on very true and current events happening within the small community of Las Vegas sports books.

A certain well-known, somewhat controversial Mr. Big-like businessman in Las Vegas is using various athletes and personalities from the sports world to make his high-stakes bets.

These celebrities, who already have ties to casinos with their high-end gambling in various games, have been lured into the web of this tricky spider because of their own inability to win consistently in sports.

It’s not unusual for some of the sharpest gambling minds in the world to be the worst sports bettors. Former World Series of Poker Champion Stu Unger had one of the best mental calculators to play favorable hands at most casino games, but the one area he couldn’t calculate correctly was sports betting, and he lost a lot of money trying to chase because he refused to believe he couldn’t beat the game.

In this new age of deception, the businessman who has been a prominent force in the Vegas betting world for decades with great success, has now got himself a couple of celebrities that have forced upper management to balance the pros and cons of keeping the stars happy for fear of negative publicity or do what’s right for the stock holders who wouldn’t be too happy knowing certain individuals were turning their heads as they were essentially getting taken to the cleaners nightly.

In a trade-off for making the businessman’s bets, the celebrity gets in on the action himself, and satisfies his high-stakes thrill of gambling, winning like never before in sports.

The old scenario by this businessman was to get regular associates/runners to play heavy in the slot machines or table games so they could get an "in" with a casino host, who would battle with the general manager of a casino, against the Sports Book Directors’ wishes, to get this particular player higher limits in the sports book.

After losing possibly a few hundred thousand dollars under this arrangement, the GM would then see that he was set up and then cut the players limits back down to normal limits, assuming they allowed them to continue playing at all.

On other occasions, the businessman, who has ties throughout the city because of all his ventures – let’s just say golf courses – would be upset that one of his runners was thrown out and call the president or CEO of the company and cause a stir.

Most casino executives don’t understand how the sports betting world works, but they do understand and love ideas to create more revenue and that’s what they’re sold on in most instances.

Many folks who don’t understand the process say, "Just take the bets, it will all wash out in the end," or "He can’t win all the time, take the bets."

Yes, he CAN win all the time and usually does, and it doesn’t wash out in the end. The only thing cleaned in the washing process are the sports books.

The businessman has a highly-sophisticated sports betting operation that in many cases has better formulas to create their own lines than the book has itself. The sports book offers side and totals wagering options to every game.

During the NBA or baseball season, there are up to 60 betting options a day offered by the books. The businessman’s goal is to find the five or six bad lines, those that deviate from his own, and pound them for as much as he can.

Some sports books will not even take his action. For one, he’s just too good and can’t be beat.

But other instances have him using deceptive moves to try and fool a book into getting more action on a game, such as sending two of his guys to multiple books under the same umbrella and synchronizing wagers on the same game at two different places. The hope is that the book’s manager will think it was merely a coincidence.

Should the book director throw out the runners, barring them from playing at any of their books, then the flood of calls come into the director’s bosses with an attempt to make the director look like he’s throwing away money, that he’s hot headed, and that word of mouth through the businessman’s vast network of friends is going to harm future business.

In some cases, through a series of phone calls, the two runners who had just deceived and attempted to circumvent limits will be back in the same book, mocking the director, a person who was initially best thought of to run the book operation with the goal of making money and protecting the house.

It’s a slap in the face to the director and it also shows who’s running the show, even though this businessman is not even affiliated with the company.

As more casinos merged throughout Las Vegas, it became harder to bully the executives. There are only a few sports books that are the originator, or hub, of lines with several books underneath using the same line that have no control of the hub’s line movement. It also became much harder for the businessman to infiltrate, but he still gets his money out there, just not as much as he wanted.

That’s where the celebrities come into play. Certain well-known names, particularly in the sports world, have some of the highest lines of credit in the casinos and their play is coveted because they have seemingly unlimited resources.

The businessman has used his schmoozing tactics and perks to create a nice relationship with these people. Because of their play in the casino, they can bet just about anything in the book they want. In past instances, they have played heavily in the book, but their play never carried weight despite the large wagers because they bet poor lines, lost much more than they bet and set a profile of being "square."

Last year all of a sudden, these players were now betting the moves before they happened and always getting the best of the line, and they were winning and winning Big!

After a long string of wagers, their new profile indicated affiliation with the businessman because the same plays were made by other known associates/runners of Mr. Big.

Just about every book is wise to the situation and most have terminated the relationship. However, there are still a few that are somewhat forced to take the action because of upper-management and can’t do anything about it, despite knowing the consequences, which are often times big losses.

Losing is always part of the game in the sports book world, but under-handed, strong-arm tactics to circumvent the system that forces a book to lose is a hard pill to swallow, especially when it’s upper-management that’s washing it down.