Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Releases Their World Famous Super Bowl XLV Propositions

LV Hilton Super Book in Las Vegas ready for the Super Bowl

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book released over 350 propositions for Super Bowl XLV on Thursday and debuted their multi-page book of sheets on Friday.

The Hilton is the clear leader in the world with Super Bowl props and have a staff that is one of the sharpest in town. Led by Executive Director Jay Kornegay, the staff has been together over 15 years paving the way as the industry leader with their famous props. The group began together at the Imperial Palace before moving to the Hilton five years ago.

Their progression in the prop field has forced every other book in Nevada, and off-shore, to follow suit from a competitive nature. On more than a few occasions, some sports books have even stolen their sheets and props, changed the logo and passed them off as their own. It may be somewhat unethical, but it shows just how important these props are and also how much their lines are respected for another sports book to pull that move off.

Here's a look at all their props, Have Fun!  

 

Las Vegas Sports Books Getting Equal Action for Super Bowl; One Big Wager on Packers

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

MGM Grand Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas

The Las Vegas sports books are buzzing with action a week to go before the Super Bowl, both from those making bets and the others just standing around looking at the board. Just about everyone who has checked in this week has made it a priority to stroll over to the book and see what the line is. Some of them make some bets while others just use it as a topic of conversation knowing they will bet later, probably closer to their departure.

The visitors who wait like to use the game as a topic of conversation wherever they go hoping to hear something, from anyone, during their stay that sways them one way or another. The locals in town are waiting for something to happen one way or another, but the only thing moving right now has been the total dropping from 46 to 44 ½ while the game itself still has the packers minus-2 ½.

Because of that wait game by many of the bettors, a few of the sports book Directors are questioning their initial thoughts that this Super Bowl could possibly surpass the all-time state record of $94.5 million in handle set in 2006 between the Steelers and Seahawks, a time when money was freely spent before settling in our current economic climate. The last two years under that climate has seen handle at $82.7 and $81.5 million.

According to reports, at least $1 million is already in the kitty early on as the MGM resorts properties took a large wager on the Packers at minus-2 ½, prompting only a .10 cents move to -2 ½ (-120). For MGM Resorts to have accepted a wager that large, it’s an indication that it came from a house player with a large line of credit, meaning that it wasn’t a Sharp who made the wager, but rather just a guy with lots of money who wants to make his Super Bowl experience a little more interesting.

That’s exactly what this game brings to Las Vegas. It’s not on the same level as the gentleman with the large wager, but what it does is bring everyone to the sports book -- who normally don’t wager -- to make a bet, while also making the casual bettor up his normal wager amount. It’s kind of like Christmas and Easter at church, which always brings out those with faith on least those two special days.

Aside from the wager, most sports books are reporting great two-way action thus far which has kept the spread at a stand still. Most of the Directors agree that they believe the late money will come on Pittsburgh, but are holding ground until it happens. The worst case scenario for the books would be if Packers money came in stronger and they were eventually forced to move to minus-3 making them vulnerable to get sided (paying on one side and refunding the other).

Money Line Value?

Public supported Broncos vs Packers

The Super Bowl underdog money-line never gives fair value, thanks in part to having some rough days at the hands of the Patriots vs. Rams, Giants vs. Patriots and Denver vs. Green Bay. Even though those Super Bowls had double digit spreads with giant money-lines, the sports books still have to book on the side of caution knowing that the majority of the public loves to get that plus-money backing the underdog.

On a normal 2-½-point spread during the regular season, the conversion chart shows that a game should be about -145/+125. The shade on this game is -130/+110 at most sports books which is a combination of both expecting more Steelers money to come in and knowing that a large portion of Pittsburgh bets will be on the money-line.

Very few bettors will touch the Packers money-line at this juncture even though the line is very fair to what the spread is. The casual bettor doesn’t want lay more to get less and would rather lay the points while the Sharp also feels they can wait it out for a better price, either because of extended action on underdog money or that the Steelers money actually does come in later.



The Sports Books Ultimate Wish

McNabb helped Vegas to a Big Day

Two of the most profitable Super Bowl wins for the house occurred when the favorite won but didn’t cover. The top all-time win for the State was in 2005 with the Patriots beating the Eagles that netted $15.4 million in win at a 17% hold. Despite Donavan McNabb throwing up late in the game, he managed to get the back-door cover late that killed all the bets on the Patriots as 7-point favorites.

The year prior, Carolina gave the Patriots all they could handle as 7-point underdogs, eventually losing 32-29, but covering. The win netted the State $12.4 million in win for a 15.3% hold.

Because this years spread is so low -- one of the lowest ever -- the ideal scenario happening again seems unlikely. However, the last time these two teams played, it was a 1-point Steelers win in a 37-36 shootout during week 15 last season.

Packers winning by 1-point this year would be the ultimate scenario for the Nevada sports books.



Total Dropping

Will the Packers scrap the run and let Rodgers air it out?

Maybe it’s because five of the last six Super Bowls have gone under the number or maybe it’s because this game features the first and third ranked defenses in the league, but I have hard time understanding why this game is being bet under with such conviction.

Yes, we’ve seen Aaron Rodgers look average in three games against the Bears and the Steelers figure to game plan their model similarly, but I can’t get that 2009 week 15 game out of my head where the two teams combined for 973 yards. The two teams exchanged blows throughout, with both teams alternating scores in each half.

The more I think about how good the Steelers top ranked run defense is, the more I think the Packers may scrap the run game a little bit and get the Steelers into a tempo they don’t like to play.

The time to prepare angle has worked in favor of defenses the last few Super Bowls and we just saw the National Championship game between two high powered collegiate teams be stifled due to weeks of defensive preparation, but I don’t see it here.

Propositions
The Super Bowl props are slowly coming out around the city as of Friday and there is a mad scramble by many to get their edge on middle opportunities before the sports books all settle at about the same number. The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book released their props Thursday night, but wait to offer a sheet until a day later just to avoid copy cats.

We’ll have a summary of some of the more creative bets in town early next week.

Inside the Super Bowl Betting Numbers

By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Handicapping the Super Bowl takes on a different perspective each year.

Granted, there are a myriad of statistics, angles and trends we can draw from but the bottom line is the personalities of the teams are equally important when it comes to isolating the eventual winner.

Safe to say that sports handicappers do not hold psychiatric degrees, let’s take a quick look at some of the more interesting trends that have occurred in Super Bowls past. All results are ATS (Against the Spread) in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, unless noted otherwise.

Faux Favorites
The public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store.

As a result, the public today is badly in need of new dental health care coverage. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be a decaying experience, with favorites sporting a 19-11 SU and 12-16-2 ATS record, including 4-9-2 ATS the last 15 games.

Favorites (Green Bay) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 6-13-2 ATS.

Super Bowl chalk taking on an opponent that did not cover its championship game by 12 or more points are 8-6 SU and 3-12-1 ATS.

The last 16 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-14-1 ATS.

Hit Me
Speaking of scoring, putting points in the scoreboard is obviously tantamount to succeeding in this game.

Those that do, win the game and the money. Those that don’t, lose the game and the money. It’s just that simple. And 21 points appears to be the cut-line.

That’s because teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-20 SU and 3-17-1 ATS. Teams that tally 21 or more points are 26-9 SU and 23-9-3 ATS. The lone winner that failed to eclipse the 21-point plateau was the New York Giants (17 points) in SBXLII against New England.

Twenty-seven points virtually assures a victory as teams putting 27 or more on the scoreboard are 22-1 SU and 19-3-1 ATS. The lone team to bust this mark and lose was Carolina (29), who fell to New England in SBXXXVIII.

Seed Me

Going back the last 15 years, the higher-seeded team has struggled mightily against the spread in the big game.

Last year paired both the No. 1 seeds from each conference for the first time in 16 years when New Orleans upended Indianapolis, 31-17.

Two years ago Pittsburgh downed Arizona, 27-23, while failing to cover the seven-point spread. As a result the higher seeded team (Pittsburgh) will carry a 1-11-2 ATS mark into SBXLV.

On a side note, the last No.1 to win a Super Bowl, playing a non-No.1 seed, was the ’99 Rams.

Conference Call
Like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since 1980, going 19-11 SU and 18-10-2 ATS.

When facing an AFC foe off back-to-back ATS wins, the NFC is 15-6 SU and 15-5-1 ATS in games with Roman Numerals attached. However, the NFC is only 4-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

One final note: this marks the first time in nine years the NFC will dress up as the favorite.

That’s an early take on this year’s Super Bowl matchup. Good luck as always.

Packers are the Early Public Choice in Super Bowl Against the Steelers

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Rodgers and Pack are the favorites

When the first line came out for the Super Bowl following the Steelers win over the Jets Sunday there was a wide array of opinions on what the Super Bowl should be. Prior to Sunday’s games, Lucky’s sports books had posted a number of pick’em and the savants over at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book concurred. However, when the first lines came out, there was a drastic change as most had eventually settled on the Packers being a 2 ½-point favorite.

Some sports books such as the Golden Nugget even opened as high as minus-3 ½ with Sports Book Director Tony Miller citing simply a need to get early money on the other side because the Packers have been such a darling with the public. Others such as Lucky’s, the Mirage, South Point and Hilton started low and they found that the public was definitely feeling love for the Packers as the money kept pouring in forcing their line ever so close to minus-3, but staying just clear at minus-2 ½.

It’s the Super Bowl, the most bet upon event of the year for every sports book -- legal and illegal -- in the world. Everyone has an opinion on the game, but many of those opinions change drastically by the time the game starts thanks to two weeks of hype and the truck loads of information supplied to everyone.

Over the course of sports book history in Las Vegas, only two games have been set as low as this one with the 1972 Dolphins as 1-point favorites and the 1970 Colts minus-2 ½, both of which covered. Every other Super Bowl has been set a minus-3 or higher.

Something drastically different from those two Super Bowls was the advent of the internet and off-shore books, which in many way dictates the market price. The market was driven Sunday as a prominent off-shore book posted a line before the Steelers AFC Championships game had concluded and when it was over, the price had been set at minus-2 ½. Sports books like Lucky’s had started low at minus-1 ½, but quickly got in line because of the forced action.

So is this really the correct line and might we see an influx of Pittsburgh money come in late? My guess is, yes we will, and any value to be found on the under dog now will not to be had by the time the Super Bowl kicks off.

But my past history behind the counter also has me second-guessing my theory. When the Raiders opened as 4-point favorites to Tampa Bay in 2003, I positively felt that the public and Sharps would be on the Raiders which altered some normal bookmaking procedures. Between being on the west coast and the Raiders being a public favorite all year long, I felt the money had to come and I held steady at minus-3 ½ all the way to kickoff despite overwhelming Tampa Bay support. Needless to say, the money never came and the Buccaneers rolled easily, 48-21 that day, making it one of the few losing Super Bowl decisions.

Steeler Nation comes strong with Bets

Because the Steeler nation is so strong and their worth to the public after winning two Super Bowls in the last five years, I have to believe that the Pittsburgh money will come and get closer to the pick’em number originally forecasted. The only flaw in that assessment is the fact that the public control this game.

The Sharp money accounts for so little in the actual bookmaking process and everyone who has sided with the Packers thus far in the playoffs has cashed in mightily. Last week, most sports books reported ticket counts on Green Bay at a 7-to-1 ratio over the Bears. That kind of loyalty from the public will be hard to break.

Packers Crush Sports Books in Playoffs
The 2010 NFL season was favorable for the sports book in 14 of the 17 weeks, but once the playoffs started it was all down hill from there.

“This Super Bowl is going to create an amazing amount of handle,” said Hilton Executive Director Jay Kornegay, “But we have definitely paid the price to getting this great matchup with the Packers support winning every week.”

Most sports books felt the wrath of the Packers supporters the last three weeks, but there was no better example than last week against the Bears where almost everyone had a Green Bay ticket laying 3 ½-points.

“We got crushed with Green Bay,“ said MGM Resorts Sports Book Director Jay Rood, “The only thing that really saved us was the game not going over along with our future prices posting.”

The MGM properties probably have the most extensive resources of future wagers in the state and if they break even on a day when those commodities are supposed to come cashing in, it says a lot about just how big of an impact the Packers had on the city.

Another bad beat for the sports books was that seven of the eight possible sides won on teasers with the Steelers game being an all-way win.

Super Bowl Parties

We’ll have a list next week on what some of the best parties are in the city, but the first one on the schedule to get the ball rolling is the NASCAR Café at the Sahara. For $60, you can eat and drink all you want, from 1pm until the game is over. That includes any kind of drink or food offered. I will be there myself with ESPN’s Brian Blessing who will be giving away all kinds of prizes just for being there that includes free UNLV tickets, t-shirts, maid services and oil changes. Come by and say hello as we’ll also be doing some Super Bowl trivia and stump the host segments. Reservations are be taken right now at the NASCAR Café.

Who to bet?
I usually change my mind on a Super Bowl side by game day -- and not always for the better, but as of now, I’m siding with the Steelers, and not only because of the value. I think their defense will be able to do some of the things that Chicago did, a team that obviously had Aaron Rodgers rattled in the second half on their game with pressure. I also like what Ben Roethlisberger does which are several things that never show in the box score. I like his leadership and ability to limit mistakes, whether that means running for a first down or taking the sack. Although Mike Tomlin finds it hard to garner support for his coaching style, I like how the Omar Epps look-a-like captains the ship. My guess this week is a Steelers 27-23 victory.

Packers Open as the Super Bowl Favorite

By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Two of the oldest franchises in NFL history meet in the Super Bowl for the first time as the Packers opened up as 2 ½-point favorites over the Steelers. Green Bay will attempt to be the first sixth seed to win a Super Bowl since Pittsburgh accomplished that feat in 2006.
Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas houses Super Bowl XLV as the Packers play in an elimination game for the sixth straight week. Green Bay needed wins in the final two weeks of the regular season over the Giants and Bears just to advance to the postseason. As a sixth seed, Mike McCarthy's team knocked off the Eagles and Falcons on the road as short underdogs. The Packers were listed as an away favorite in Sunday's NFC Championship at Chicago, as Green Bay cashed with a 21-14 victory.

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The Steelers made it the more conventional way by winning two home games after receiving a first-round bye. Pittsburgh rallied past Baltimore in the Divisional Playoffs, 31-24 to cash as three-point favorites. Mike Tomlin's club jumped out to a 24-0 lead over the Jets in the AFC Title game, but New York made it interesting with 19 unanswered points. The Steelers held on for a 24-19 win as four-point 'chalk,' heading to their third Super Bowl in six seasons.
This is the shortest line since the Ravens demolished the Giants as three-point favorites in Super Bowl XXXV, 34-7. Since that game, the underdogs are 7-2 ATS, including New Orleans' 31-17 outright victory as five-point 'dogs. The only wins by favorites in the past decade were the Steelers in XL over the Seahawks (21-10 as four-point 'chalk') and the Colts over the Bears in XLI (29-17 as seven-point favorites).
From the totals perspective, the number opened at 45 ½ with the total heading towards 46 shortly after the opener was posted. VegasInsider's Chris David discusses the move, "The early total money on Super Bowl XLV came in on the 'over' and right now, you can argue it both ways. Both teams have capable quarterbacks that can dice up any defense, if given time. However, that's a big if. But even if the defenses show up, like they did in their championship games, they've both shown that they can help light up the scoreboard as well."
However, David points out that the defenses do step up in this game, "Make a note that the 'under' has been golden in the last six Super Bowl appearances, producing a 5-1 record. And, you can make a case that the 'under' should've cashed in the Steelers 27-23 victory over the Cardinals during Super Bowl XLIII from Tampa if it wasn't for a late outburst in the fourth."
It's not crazy to think that a sixth seed should be favored over a team that had a first-round bye in the playoffs. As mentioned earlier, Pittsburgh's 11-point victory over Seattle at Ford Field in 2006 was the fourth straight win on the highway for the Steelers, as the Packers look to turn that trick in Texas on February 6.

Packers Open as the Super Bowl Favorite

By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

 

Two of the oldest franchises in NFL history meet in the Super Bowl for the first time as the Packers opened up as 2 ½-point favorites over the Steelers. Green Bay will attempt to be the first sixth seed to win a Super Bowl since Pittsburgh accomplished that feat in 2006.
Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas houses Super Bowl XLV as the Packers play in an elimination game for the sixth straight week. Green Bay needed wins in the final two weeks of the regular season over the Giants and Bears just to advance to the postseason. As a sixth seed, Mike McCarthy's team knocked off the Eagles and Falcons on the road as short underdogs. The Packers were listed as an away favorite in Sunday's NFC Championship at Chicago, as Green Bay cashed with a 21-14 victory.

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The Steelers made it the more conventional way by winning two home games after receiving a first-round bye. Pittsburgh rallied past Baltimore in the Divisional Playoffs, 31-24 to cash as three-point favorites. Mike Tomlin's club jumped out to a 24-0 lead over the Jets in the AFC Title game, but New York made it interesting with 19 unanswered points. The Steelers held on for a 24-19 win as four-point 'chalk,' heading to their third Super Bowl in six seasons.
This is the shortest line since the Ravens demolished the Giants as three-point favorites in Super Bowl XXXV, 34-7. Since that game, the underdogs are 7-2 ATS, including New Orleans' 31-17 outright victory as five-point 'dogs. The only wins by favorites in the past decade were the Steelers in XL over the Seahawks (21-10 as four-point 'chalk') and the Colts over the Bears in XLI (29-17 as seven-point favorites).
From the totals perspective, the number opened at 45 ½ with the total heading towards 46 shortly after the opener was posted. VegasInsider's Chris David discusses the move, "The early total money on Super Bowl XLV came in on the 'over' and right now, you can argue it both ways. Both teams have capable quarterbacks that can dice up any defense, if given time. However, that's a big if. But even if the defenses show up, like they did in their championship games, they've both shown that they can help light up the scoreboard as well."
However, David points out that the defenses do step up in this game, "Make a note that the 'under' has been golden in the last six Super Bowl appearances, producing a 5-1 record. And, you can make a case that the 'under' should've cashed in the Steelers 27-23 victory over the Cardinals during Super Bowl XLIII from Tampa if it wasn't for a late outburst in the fourth."
It's not crazy to think that a sixth seed should be favored over a team that had a first-round bye in the playoffs. As mentioned earlier, Pittsburgh's 11-point victory over Seattle at Ford Field in 2006 was the fourth straight win on the highway for the Steelers, as the Packers look to turn that trick in Texas on February 6.

Roberts Championship Game Selections: Looks Like Jets-Packers Super Bowl

Brad Smith Started the roll on Pittsburgh early in week 15 with a KO return TD

After a long and hard thought out process, I finally came up with my wagering strategy for this weekend. I played the under in both games for a full unit as my top plays, but I also negated some of what I perceive as value on those plays by playing half-unit plays on a few others.

I took the Jets money-line at plus-185 and the Packers at minus-3 ½ for a half-unit each. I round-robined the Jets M/L, Packers and the two unders for a half-unit each with two, three and four team parlays.

Defense looks to be the underlying scenario for each team in these games as matchups between them have already suggested earlier this season. Both Packers-Bears games this season went under considerably and yet the total is 43.5 for that match. The Bears have been able to contain Aaron Rodgers more so than others this season. Even though Rodgers is on a roll right now, he should be expected to have some difficulties.

The reason for siding with the Packers rests with the defense who has picked off Jay Cutler three times in their two games against only one TD pass. Look for Cutler to force the action as the pressure gets a little heavy thanks to Charles Woodson blitzing and Clay Mathews just playing his normal game.

The Jets set the tone in their earlier game this season and maintained it almost throughout. If the game is close, the Jets win. They used the week 15 Pittsburgh game to rebound during a late season slump and they have been rolling ever since. In this instance, you have to either lay the points with Pittsburgh or take the money line. In 89% of Championship games, the spread never comes into question; it’s either and upset or the spread is covered.

Packers defense should stifle Bears' Cutler, again.

1 Unit Plays
GB/CHI UNDER 43 ½
NYJ/PITT UNDER 38 ½

½ Unit Plays
Packers -3 ½
Jets +185 Money Line

½ Unit 2, 3, 4 Round Robin
Packers -3 ½
Jets M/L +185
NYJ/PITT UNDER 38 ½
GB/CHI UNDER 43 ½

Proposition Value
James Starks' listed rushing yards is 53.5 under -120 at the MGM properties while he is 45.5 flat at Cantor Gaming properties. This is a great spot to middle yardage with plays on each side and hope that he lands in between the numbers so you win both sides. I played 2 units on the under at MGM while playing one unit on the over at Cantor Gaming. I like Starks to continue the Packers under theme in the rushing game against the Bears this year, but can't let the value on landing on a very probable middle slip away.  

AFC & NFC Championship Weekend Betting Moves in Las Vegas; Lots of Packers Money!

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Bettors are excited about the Packers this week

Even though both number one seeds have been eliminated, it’s hard to imagine a better lineup than we have for this weeks AFC and NFC Championship games. A couple of two and six seeds having at it for the right to go to the Super Bowl wouldn’t have sounded so hot a few weeks prior to the season, but according to Lucky’s Race and Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro, this is the best possible scenario for the sports books in regards to creating handle.

“People were getting tired of the Patriots. Now we have some great matchups this week with two huge markets in Chicago and New York along with two storied franchises rich with football history in Pittsburgh and Green Bay. We couldn‘t ask for a better combination of four teams from a perspective of getting more people to the windows with opinions.”

It’s fair to say that no matter where you live, you know someone from one of those areas. Who doesn‘t know someone that can recall one of their greatest thrills in sports occurring from one of those franchises, I can‘t say I don‘t. Namath’s Jets, the ‘85 Bears, the Steel Curtain and Lombardi’s Packers; all those memories come together this week with a wider range of age groups having a stake than any combination the Falcons, Patriots or Saints could have given us.

Due in part to some of those reasons, the expected increase handle won’t just stop with the Championship games.

“Regardless of who makes the Super Bowl,” Vaccaro explained, “the fan intrigue is going to be there for either team which should lead to a big Super Bowl write.“

The early wagers have been sort of an indication of who the public is siding with. On one side, it’s been all Packers action and in the other game, it’s been a tossup.

Jimmy Vaccaro  

“I’m still waiting for someone to make a Bears bet,” joked Vaccaro. “We’ve got about a 7 to 1 ticket count ratio on the Packers. If the Packers go down, regardless of what happens in the other game, the books will have a good day.”

Lucky’s chain of books across Nevada opened the Packers minus-3 (-105), but has climbed up the ladder quickly with seven separate moves until finally settling at the current number of minus-3 ½ flat. They had went as high as minus-3 (-135), but bettors still laid it forcing them to get off the key number.

Between the Packers actual play on the field and public sentiment in their corner, Vaccaro also posted up Super Bowl lines with the Packers being a 3-point favorite against the Jets and Pick’em with the Steelers. He also has the Steelers minus-4 against the Bears and minus-1 ½ versus the Jets.

As for the other Championship game with split opinions, you’ve got two proud fan bases. With Pittsburgh, you’ve got a solid foundation of long time loyal fans to go along with another faction who just simply fares well with taking the Steelers in the playoffs.

With the Jets, you have their large fan base of hungry, excited people waiting for their first Super Bowl appearance since 1969. But beyond those faithful fans, they’ve also grown a loyal following of bettors who have routinely cashed in big with the underdog Jets in the last two playoff seasons.

“We’ve been bouncing around from minus-3 ½ to minus-4 with the Steelers. It’s been all Jets at plus-4 and all Steelers at minus-3 ½,” Vaccaro said.

In addition to the Super Bowl lines already put up for the four prospective matchups, Lucky’s is also offering a wide assortment of Championship game propositions as a mini preview to the hundreds they’ll do for the Super Bowl. Along with player props, special point spreads and in-game wagering, Vaccaro is also offering Yes/No props on each team to win the Super Bowl.

“We’ve found that bettors really like that option of betting against a team from a value standpoint,” said Vaccaro.

Packers defense shut out Jets 9-0 in week 8

The worst possible situation for the sports books this week would appear to be the Packers covering and the Jets winning outright. Even though the Steelers game is split, the factor that sends the risk over the edge is the Jets money line at a plus-175 payout, which multiplied by parlays to the Packers would make it a hefty blow to Las Vegas.

I kind of hope it happens, even though I consider most of the book Directors my friends.

The Vegas sports books had their best football season ever, so it’s time to give a little back to the bettors in the new year. Beyond that, I do believe the Jets-Packers matchup would create the most interest for the Super Bowl which would be a huge spike for business in Las Vegas; not just at the sports books, but for the entire gaming and non-gaming community.

Jets-Packers hype wouldn’t start because of seeing two teams whose main color is green going against each other, although that would be very cool too, but because they have the best stories going right now. There is no buzz surrounding the Steelers, or the Bears, and many of the fringe fans that the Super Bowl attracts know more about the childish Jay Cutler demanding a trade out of Denver than they know about his turnaround in Chicago this year. They also know more about Ben Roethlisberger’s jurisprudence stories than they’d like to which turns off that casual fan, and it’s those fans that make a Super Bowl truly super from a betting standpoint.

Two six seeds in the Super Bowl? That is a crazy thought, but they are both kind of the mainstream topic right now and I‘m hopping on the bandwagon dressed in Green.

Potential Super Bowl Lines Posted at Lucky's Sports Books in Las Vegas

Packers -3 vs. Jets (total 44)
Packers/Steelers PK (total 45)
Steelers -4 vs. Bears (total 41)
Jets -1.5 vs. Bears (total 40.5)

AFC & NFC Championship Game Betting Spread History

NFC Championship History
Year	Matchup	Score	Line	ATS
2009-10	Minnesota at New Orleans	31-28	4, 54	Underdog, Over
2008-09	Philadelphia at Arizona	32-25	3.5, 47	Underdog, Over
2007-08	N.Y. Giants at Green Bay	23-20	8, 41	Underdog, Over
2006-07	New Orleans at Chicago	34-14	2.5, 42.5	Favorite, Over
2005-06	Carolina at Seattle	34-14	3.5, 43.5	Favorite, Over
2004-05	Atlanta at Philadelphia	27-10	5.5, 37.5	Favorite, Under
2003-04	Carolina at Philadelphia	14-3	4, 36.5	Underdog, Under
2002-03	Tampa Bay at Philadelphia	27-10	4, 34	Underdog, Under
2001-02	Philadelphia at St. Louis	29-24	10.5, 49	Underdog, Over
2000-01	Minnesota at N.Y. Giants	41-0	2.5, 42	Favorite, Under
1999-00	Tampa Bay at St. Louis	11-6	14.5, 44	Underdog, Under
1998-99	Atlanta at Minnesota	30-27	10.5, 55	Underdog, Over
1997-98	Green Bay at San Francisco	23-10	2.5, 44	Favorite, Under
1996-97	Carolina at Green Bay	30-13	12.5, 38	Favorite, Over
1995-96	Green Bay at Dallas	38-27	8.5, 50	Favorite, Over
1994-95	Dallas at San Francisco	38-28	7.5, 48	Favorite, Over
1993-94	San Francisco at Dallas	38-21	3, 47.5	Favorite, Over
1992-93	Dallas at San Francisco	30-20	4, 37	Underdog, Over
1991-92	Detroit at Washington	41-10	13, 43	Favorite, Over
1990-91	N.Y. Giants at San Francisco	15-13	8, 37	Underdog, Under
1989-90	L.A. Rams at San Francisco	30-3	7, 46	Favorite, Over
1988-89	San Francisco at Chicago	28-3	1, 34.5	Underdog, Under
1987-88	Minnesota at Washington	17-10	3.5	Favorite
1986-87	Washington at N.Y. Giants	17-0	7.5	Favorite
1985-86	L.A. Rams at Chicago	24-0	10.5	Favorite
1984-85	Chicago at San Francisco	23-0	9	Favorite
1983-84	San Francisco at Washington	24-21	10.5	Underdog
1982-83	Dallas at Washington	31-17	2	Underdog
1981-82	Dallas at San Francisco	28-27	3	Underdog
1980-81	Dallas at Philadelphia	20-7	1	Underdog
1979-80	L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay	9-0	3.5	Favorite
1978-79	Dallas at L.A. Rams	28-0	3.5	Favorite
1977-78	Minnesota at Dallas	26-3	11.5	Favorite
1976-77	L.A. Rams at Minnesota	24-13	4.5	Favorite
1975-76	Dallas at L.A. Rams	37-7	6	Underdog
1974-75	L.A. Rams at Minnesota	14-10	4	PUSH
1973-74	Minnesota at Dallas	27-10	1	Underdog
1972-73	Dallas at Washington	26-3	3	Favorite
1971-72	San Francisco at Dallas	14-3	7.5	Favorite
1970-71	Dallas at San Francisco	17-10	4	Underdog

AFC Championship History Year Matchup Score Line ATS 2009-10 N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis 30-17 8, 40 Favorite, Over 2008-09 Baltimore at Pittsburgh 23-14 6, 35 Favorite, Over 2007-08 San Diego at New England 21-12 14, 48 Underdog, Under 2006-07 New England at Indianapolis 38-34 3.5, 47 Favorite-Over 2005-06 Pittsburgh at Denver 34-17 3, 41 Underdog-Over 2004-05 New England at Pittsburgh 41-27 3, 35 Favorite, Over 2003-04 Indianapolis at New England 24-14 3, 43 Favorite, Under 2002-03 Tennessee at Oakland 41-24 8, 47 Favorite-Over 2001-02 New England at Pittsburgh 24-17 10, 37 Underdog, Over 2000-01 Baltimore at Oakland 16-3 6, 36.5 Underdog, Under 1999-00 Tennessee at Jacksonville 33-14 7, 40.5 Underdog, Over 1998-99 N.Y. Jets at Denver 23-10 9, 51.5 Favorite, Under 1997-98 Denver at Pittsburgh 24-21 2.5, 41 Favorite, Over 1996-97 Jacksonville at New England 20-6 7, 44 Favorite, Under 1995-96 Indianapolis at Pittsburgh 20-16 12, 41 Underdog, Under 1994-95 San Diego at Pittsburgh 17-13 9, 35 Underdog, Under 1993-94 Kansas City at Buffalo 30-13 3, 38 Favorite, Under 1992-93 Buffalo at Miami 29-10 2, 41 Favorite, Under 1991-92 Denver at Buffalo 10-7 11, 45 Underdog, Under 1990-91 L.A. Raiders at Buffalo 51-3 7, 37 Favorite, Over 1989-90 Cleveland at Denver 37-21 3.5, 40 Favorite, Over 1988-89 Buffalo at Cincinnati 21-10 4, 40.5 Favorite, Under 1987-88 Cleveland at Denver 38-33 2.5, 44.5 Favorite, Over 1986-87 Denver at Cleveland 23-20 3, 38 Underdog, Over 1985-86 New England at Miami 31-14 5.5 Underdog 1984-85 Pittsburgh at Miami 45-28 9.5 Favorite 1983-84 Seattle at L.A. Raiders 30-14 7.5 Favorite 1982-83 N.Y. Jets at Miami 14-0 2 Favorite 1981-82 San Diego at Cincinnati 27-7 4.5 Favorite 1980-81 Oakland at San Diego 34-27 4 Underdog 1979-80 Houston at Pittsburgh 27-13 9.5 Favorite 1978-79 Houston at Pittsburgh 34-5 7 Favorite 1977-78 Oakland at Denver 20-17 3.5 Underdog 1976-77 Pittsburgh at Oakland 24-7 4.5 Underdog 1975-76 Oakland at Pittsburgh 16-10 6 PUSH 1974-75 Pittsburgh at Oakland 24-13 5.5 Underdog 1973-74 Oakland at Miami 27-10 6.5 Favorite 1972-73 Miami at Pittsburgh 21-17 2.5 Favorite 1971-72 Baltimore at Miami 21-0 1.5 Favorite 1970-71 Oakland at Baltimore 27-17 1 Underdog

** Winner listed in Bold