Thursday, October 7, 2010
Roberts Week 5 NFL Selections: Too Much Value With Colts Laying -7
Bills +1 vs. Jaguars: This another game I see as having value just because of the rapid transition in lines due to what happened last week. So the Jaguars played a flawless home game for once and beat the Colts, but they also got pummeled by the Eagles at home and Chargers on the road. Prior to last weeks game, the line would have been Bills -3. I love the value here, as strange as that sounds backing a team like the Bills. I think they’ll play well at home, closer to what they did when losing to the Patriots than what we saw when they faced the Jets, the best team in football.
Giants +3 (-115) @ Houston: The Texans are definitely a tough team to pick on at home, but I like what I have seen out the first two NFC East teams that faced the Texans, one a three point win at Washington and the other being a 14-point loss at Dallas. The Texans allow lots of passing yardage and even Eli Manning should have a field day. I also like that Brandon Jacobs could be out of the dog house and be a bigger part of the game this week than what we’ve seen through four games.
49ers -3 vs. Eagles: Although I do believe Kevin Kolb will play a good game, I firmly believe that the 49ers at home -- their second in five games --- will be the right side laying only 3-points. In that lone home game, the 49ers looked to be who we thought they were, a very good team with a running back in Frank Gore that can’t be stopped. It was a loss to the Saints, but it was the only game they have played where they looked very good. I believe they will recreate some of the things we saw that night and the 49ers will by 10.
That’s all I’ve got for now. In the other games, I have leans towards Denver +7, Lions -3, Browns +3, Bengals - 6 ½, Packers -2 ½, Saints -6 ½, Chargers -6 & Jets -4.
The game that I could not even begin to bet on or choose a side is the Bears-Panthers which figures to be very ugly with Todd Collins and Jimmy Clausen starting. The only bet I could make would be over in combined Interceptions.