Thursday, October 7, 2010

Roberts Week 5 NFL Selections: Too Much Value With Colts Laying -7

Colts -7 vs. Chiefs: I thought I’d never say this about the Colts, the most public team of the last decade, but there is real value in this climate of the dogs covering laying only 7-points with them when the line should be closer to -10. It took two virtually perfect games by teams the Colts visited on the road to beat them while the Colts still did what they wanted offensively. I can’t see the Chiefs being perfect at Indy and can‘t see them stopping the Colts. However, I could see a 38-14 score like the Colts put on the Giants in their only home game this year.

Bills +1 vs. Jaguars: This another game I see as having value just because of the rapid transition in lines due to what happened last week. So the Jaguars played a flawless home game for once and beat the Colts, but they also got pummeled by the Eagles at home and Chargers on the road. Prior to last weeks game, the line would have been Bills -3. I love the value here, as strange as that sounds backing a team like the Bills. I think they’ll play well at home, closer to what they did when losing to the Patriots than what we saw when they faced the Jets, the best team in football.

Giants +3 (-115) @ Houston: The Texans are definitely a tough team to pick on at home, but I like what I have seen out the first two NFC East teams that faced the Texans, one a three point win at Washington and the other being a 14-point loss at Dallas. The Texans allow lots of passing yardage and even Eli Manning should have a field day. I also like that Brandon Jacobs could be out of the dog house and be a bigger part of the game this week than what we’ve seen through four games.

Cowboys -7 (EV) vs. Titans: I like the week off for Dallas going into a game against a team that is questioning themselves and who they are. The Cowboys got Roy Williams involved in their last game against Houston and should be able to use that to their advantage now because everyone kind of left him alone knowing Tony Romo doesn’t go his way. They have a good enough defense to contain Chris Johnson somewhat forcing Vince Young into passing more, especially when they are down, which has proved to be not a good thing. I could see the Cowboys going on roll for the next month or so beginning this week.

49ers -3 vs. Eagles: Although I do believe Kevin Kolb will play a good game, I firmly believe that the 49ers at home -- their second in five games --- will be the right side laying only 3-points. In that lone home game, the 49ers looked to be who we thought they were, a very good team with a running back in Frank Gore that can’t be stopped. It was a loss to the Saints, but it was the only game they have played where they looked very good. I believe they will recreate some of the things we saw that night and the 49ers will by 10.

That’s all I’ve got for now. In the other games, I have leans towards Denver +7, Lions -3, Browns +3, Bengals - 6 ½, Packers -2 ½, Saints -6 ½, Chargers -6 & Jets -4.

The game that I could not even begin to bet on or choose a side is the Bears-Panthers which figures to be very ugly with Todd Collins and Jimmy Clausen starting. The only bet I could make would be over in combined Interceptions.

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