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Jeff Whitelaw is one of the most respected bettors at all sports books in Las Vegas, just because he consistently wins, and it helps that he‘s always in a great mood and smiling. He does it for a living. When he made his wager, no matter the amount, I always respected his opinion and moved the number his way regardless of what kind of risk I had on the game. One of the things I really respected about him was his integrity. If a line was ever posted wrong in the system, he would always come to the counter and tell us rather than pouncing on the error with a wager.
Jeff isn’t going to share his entire strategy for being a successful bettor, but he’s offered some useful tips that should be considered whenever betting this NFL season.
“You always want to try and get the best number and when playing these isolated Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games, if you like the favorite, bet it early and if you like the underdog, bet it closer to kickoff. The public has so much power in these games. That applies with the total too. Bet the OVER as early as possible and the UNDER late.”
However, betting the UNDER in night games hasn’t been a good proposition lately no matter when getting the number, as Whitelaw explains.
“Over the past few seasons, the OVER has been routinely hitting in those isolated games and most of it is because we’ve always got good teams playing. You’re not getting Tennessee playing Jacksonville all the time, you’re getting Green Bay, New England, Dallas, Philadelphia and Denver, teams with good offenses.”
One of the biggest mistakes casual NFL bettors make is to bet against a team that just had a bad showing the week before, and Whitelaw uses that to his advantage.
“Don’t overreact to what you saw last. A lot of times when a team gets blown out, they come back the next week after a hard week of practice and play very well. You may not think they’re good, but they’re motivated and coached well to respond.”
In NFL, every team has talented players and any team on any given Sunday can beat anyone, which is why Whitelaw also employs another betting strategy.
“Taking double-digit dogs, getting +10 or higher, has been a good play for me over the past five years.”
Whitelaw also offers advice at what to do when a number is below 3.
“If I like an underdog that is +2.5, and there is no way to get +3, I’d rather take the money-line on them at +125 or +130. It’s very rare that the spread comes into play in those situations and in the long run you should come out ahead with the plus-money.”
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