Saturday, September 26, 2015

Free NFL Week 3 Plays: Colts to bounce back at Tennessee

Lots of good games on the board to jump on this week. 
Colts at Tennessee

In a situation similar to Philly's, the Colts' rating has come crashing down after an 0-2 start. Indy backers can lay a generous -3 (-120) against a Titans squad they have won and covered against seven straight times. Yes, the Colts offensive line is worse than we thought coming into the season, but they are still 9.5-points better than the Titans on a neutral field. If we give Tennessee +3 for home field, the spread should be Colts -6.5, which makes laying only a field goal very cheap.

Despite the bargain created by the overreaction, public bettors will be skeptical of laying any amount of points after losing on Indy in the first two weeks. That’s understandable, but let’s not ignore the data we had coming into the season that made Indy co-favorites to win the AFC. That team is still in the locker room, and we should expect to see that real Colts squad Sunday. Colts -3 (-120) is the play.

Predicted score: Colts 27-14

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