Thursday, September 17, 2015

Week 3 College Football Picks: Alabama rolls Ole Miss in revenge spot

You don't get many opportunities to lay Alabama at -7 or less at home, and you don't get many opportunities to back Nick Saban in a revenge spot. When Mississippi comes to Tuscaloosa this weekend, we get both.

Beyond those reasons to support Alabama, power ratings further the case. The spread suggests the Rebels and Crimson Tide are playing at a neutral site and does not factor Alabama's huge home edge, which might be the biggest in college football.

Ole Miss is a quality squad, and QB Chad Kelly might be a good one, but we can hardly make that assumption based on his play against Tennessee-Martin and Fresno State, despite the Rebels scoring over 73 points in each. This is Alabama's defense at home, and it's Kelly's first road game.

Look for the Ole Miss defense to play well enough to keep this game UNDER the total, but for Alabama to win by double digits and cover the number. Alabama -6.5 and UNDER 53.5.

Predicted score: Alabama 27-10

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