Saturday, September 26, 2015

NFL Week 3 Betting Moves from Las Vegas

Jets are way over-inflated this week against Eagles.
LAS VEGAS -- Last week I talked about some overreactions to the Week 1 results which appeared to give value to a few underdogs in Week 2, five of which ended up not only covering the game, but also winning outright.

This week, the role has been reversed where a couple of underachieving 0-2 public favorites aren't laying as big a price that was posted at CG Technology books in April or at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook in its early Week 3 lines posted last Wednesday.

From the sports books point of view, they aren't just posting raw ratings. In addition to adjusting each teams' actual rating weekly, they also have to handicap what side the public will gravitate to, which is an art to itself. It's a case of supply and demand, and they're going to make you lay a larger price on teams you like and more against teams you're down on.

Last week the books knew the public hated Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Washington, Jacksonville and Oakland and all five underdogs ended up winning outright. It was one week after the public did very well picking against those same teams, and all the money they had won they gave right back to the books in Week 2.

The big difference this week in where the value rests is with a few of the popular 0-2 teams that are sitting at cheap prices. The public has been burned two weeks in a row by the Eagles, Colts and Ravens and they're ready to stick a fork in them forgetting about the reasons they were so high on them coming into the season.

The masses of public bettors are a fickle crew with their own “Zig-Zag Theory” that more times than not zags them out of a winning week. And the books know how to appeal to those public trends and reel them in like an unsuspecting trout. Sharps on the other hand, know the books' strategy and they take advantage of the numbers that have been over-modified and it's why you'll see them usually win when the books do.

The most shocking movement of a team rating from preseason to Week 3 is what has happened with the Eagles, who were bumped up almost three-points after blowing everyone out in the first three exhibition games. But after looking nothing like that preseason offensive monster in losses to Atlanta and Dallas, they're actually below the rating they started with in the preseason. It's a rapid adjustment and part of it is to handicap what the public is feeling, and right now they feel the Eagles are phony. They loved Philly the first two weeks, but they hate them now.

On the other side, you've got the Jets coming off an impressive win at Indianapolis on Monday night, and they get a bump up in the rating just because that defense figures to give plenty of teams problems all season long.

Last week the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Philadelphia as a 3 ½-point road favorite against the Jets in their early lines. After Monday night's game, the Jets were -2.5 and down to -2 on Friday. That is a massive adjustment for just one week. And the public doesn't care as their parlay action is on the New York Jets.

Read More Here for all the line

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