Jimmy Vaccaro and his crew at Lucky’s sports books across Nevada have opened up odds to win each NFL division for the 2010 season. After a few free agent signings, the NFL draft and key league suspensions handed down, Lucky’s odds are up and ready for action.
Each division has only four teams and it’s likely that many of the listed favorites will get there, but the fun of the entire exercise is attempting to find that one juicy nugget of a team that could surprise. Who is going to be that surprise division winner this season like the Bengals and Vikings were last season?
Lucky’s has six of the eight divisions listed with a double digit underdog. It’s hard to imagine teams like the Lions (15-1), Buccaneers (13-1), Browns (10-1) or Rams (13-1) winning their division at this stage of their rebuilding process, but it’s conceivable to believe the possibilities that lie within the Bills (12-1) and Jaguars (10-1).
The addition of C.J. Spiller to an already fairly competitive team creates an interesting look for Buffalo this season. The Jaguars spent their first four draft picks on defense, an area of dire need. They already have a good nucleus on offense with Maurice Jones-Drew, one of the most dynamic running backs in the league, and a seasoned NFL quarterback in David Garrard, and aren’t too removed from the 2007 team that competed for the division title with the Colts.
The Redskins are the longest shot to win the NFC East at 5 to 1, but it’s hard to ignore the impact that Mike Shanahan could immediately have as the new head coach. He already has picked up the best offensive lineman of the draft in Trent Williams with the fourth overall pick and addressed the team’s main concern at quarterback. The addition of Donovan McNabb, while keeping him within the division playing against defenses he knows very well, should make the Redskins a serious contender to beat out the Cowboys (13-10) and Giants (12-5) for the division.
Along with the Redskins, top picks to win the division that aren’t favorites would be the Jets (3-2) and the Falcons (8-5). There is nothing written that says a Super Bowl Champion can’t go back-to-back, but it’s only happened once in 10 years. Of the last 10 Super Bowl winners, only five have made the playoffs the following year. It’s hard to fathom the Saints falling off so drastically at this juncture before training camp has even started, but other than the 2000 Broncos, it was a shock to see those other four teams miss out. Getting plus money with a quality team like the Falcons to go along with history sounds pretty tempting.
The Jets have the tough task of trying to take down the Patriots (13-10), but it looks like these two teams are headed in opposite directions. The Jets have the nastiest defense in football, a great offensive line, fresh legs at running back and a rising star in quarterback Mark Sanchez who was brilliant in the playoffs leading the Jets to the AFC title game.
The Jets are such a strong contender to have a great season that they warrant future book wagering consideration to win the AFC Championship and Super Bowl. Lucky’s sports books have the Jets 8 to 1 to win the conference and 12 to 1 to win it all, some of the highest odds in town. In fact, the theoretic hold on all Lucky’s NFL futures are some of the lowest in the city which will somewhat guarantee that you’ll get the fairest prices on whatever team you’re looking to wager on by making a visit.
I came across an excellent write up of just about every defensive formation used in the NFL today. This is a breakdown of traditional 3-4 and 4-3 (including Cover 0,1,2,3,4, the Tampa 2)defenses as well as defensive line schemes, nickel, dime and other zone packages and the 46. This can be a very useful tool when trying to handicap the upcoming season. I'm sure I will reference this when doing my write up for the weekly picks I make. I would also suggest the readers of this site bookmark the following link.
Enjoy.
Colts president Bill Polian likes to say "let the draft board speak to you." If you are lucky, the board says stay put and take the best player. Such was the case for the Bills, Bears, Bengals and Giants. The other 28 teams moved players for picks, or traded up or down trying to land the desired players at the right spots.
Patriots coach Bill Belichick told me on Thursday before the draft that many of the veteran players mentioned in trade talks might be cut early in the week after the draft, and he turned out to be right. We just saw three defensive tackles and an All-Pro guard get shown the door. They will fill the holes left for teams that did not meet all their needs in the draft. Here are a few observations from the draft:
Arizona -- The Cardinals were unable to land a franchise left tackle, but they finally got their nose tackle by grabbing Dan Williams with the 26th selection. Second-round pick Daryl Washington gives them a weakside inside linebacker that should start from Day 1. The dark horse in the draft may be outside linebacker, O'Brien Schofield, who was injured at the Senior Bowl but has a chance to replace some of the pass rush left behind by Chike Okeafor and Bertrand Berry. Schofield had 17 sacks in college.
Atlanta -- The Falcons calmly took the best player on their board in the first four rounds. A number of prognosticators said Sean Weatherspoon was a late first-round pick, but I agree with Atlanta grabbing him at No. 19. He can play any of the three linebacker spots. Not having a second-round pick left the Falcons waiting 64 selections before getting a defensive tackle (Corey Peters). A total of 10 defensive tackles came off the board during those 64 picks. Mike Johnson, also taken in the third round, can play center as well as guard. CB Dominique Franks, taken 135th overall, looked like a steal and should compete for at least the nickel corner job. The Falcons can go to camp with this roster.
Baltimore -- The Ravens traded out of the first round and still wound up with two defensive players in the second round, Sergio Kindle and Terrence Cody, who will be on the field in 2010. Drafting tight ends back-to-back in the third and fourth rounds is a statement about Todd Heap. The Ravens were expected to get secondary help in the draft and passed on good safeties in the second round. By the time they went in the fourth round, 16 corners were gone.
Buffalo -- It was clear the grades on the board would not let the Bills select a quarterback, as they passed on Jimmy Clausen twice and Colt McCoy three times. It was obvious the Bills didn't like the draft class. C.J. Spiller is a playmaker who will touch the ball more than any other rookie running back next year. DT Torell Troup and DE Alex Carrington are excellent picks to build the 3-4 defense. A dark horse to keep an eye on is OT Ed Wang. He has the athleticism to win the right tackle job before his rookie season is over.
Carolina -- The Panthers needed more picks with the number of veterans who left the roster and Marty Hurney went from eight choices to 10. It had to be tough to sit back and wait 48 picks to select, but Clausen fell right in their lap, and they had to put off getting a wide receiver until the third round, when they got Brandon LaFell. The former LSU star is similar to long-time Carolina standout Mushin Muhammad. The Panthers then surprised many people by giving up a 2011 second-round pick for a Wildcat player, Armanti Edwards. I really like Eric Norwood in the fourth round as a situational pass rusher, who had 29 sacks in college.
Chicago -- It had to be torture waiting until pick No. 75 to make their first selection, but the Bears wisely refused to move up and mortgage their future once again. They went defense for the first of their five picks, but failed to address their concerns at offensive tackle until the seventh round. Some would think with all the throwing Mike Martz does, that the Bears would have drafted more receivers. I was told, however, that Martz doesn't want a lot of receivers in camp.
Cincinnati -- I thought the Bengals had a very good draft, hitting on key needs at tight end, defensive line and corner. Jermaine Gresham gives Carson Palmer his first big-time tight end since he joined the Bengals. Carlos Dunlap has first-round talent and dropped to the second for off-the-field issues, which Marvin Lewis will handle. DT Geno Atkins will be in the rotation at defensive tackle after running a sub-4.8 40-yard dash at 293 pounds. Jordan Shipley is a crafty wide receiver Palmer will come to trust in the slot. The Bengals could still use a safety to finish off a fine offseason.
Cleveland -- The Browns masterfully waited for McCoy at No. 85. In the meantime, they selected the top corner, Joe Haden, a bit of a reach at safety, T.J. Ward, and an underrated running back, Montario Hardesty, to replace Jamal Lewis. Don't be surprised if safety Larry Asante, taken in the fifth round, gives Ward a run for playing time. With nine picks, the Browns satisfied all of their needs and should be ready for camp.
Dallas -- Jerry Jones didn't listen to his draft board the year Randy Moss came out, but he did this year and moved up for Dez Bryant. The Cowboys don't overreact in the draft like they used to, but they failed to draft a tackle, and as a result, re-signing Flozell Adams seems like a good idea. Zane Beadles would have been ideal in the second round, but he went 11 picks before Dallas selected. They did wisely move up to grab LB Sean Lee in the second round. He can play either inside spot and will eventually replace Keith Brooking. A kicker and a safety are still needs to be addressed.
Denver -- The Broncos started out with six picks, and wound up with nine selections by bouncing all over the board. They chose Tim Tebow at No. 25, after replacing Brandon Marshall with the same type of receiver, Demaryius Thomas, at No. 22. I really liked what the Broncos did to fortify their offensive line by adding Beadles, J.D. Walton and Eric Olsen. All three should make the team and compete to play right away. If third-round WR Eric Decker is healthy, he will have a chance to win the third wide receiver spot.
Detroit -- Second overall pick Ndamukong Suh gives Lions coach Jim Schwartz the Albert Haynesworth-type player he has been looking for in Detroit. The Lions' board had Jahvid Best rated as the best running back in the draft, and they didn't hesitate to move up to No. 30 overall to get him. They were unable to draft a linebacker, and will have to look for one in free agency. Keep an eye on seventh-round pick Willie Young, who had 46 tackles for a loss and 20 sacks in his college career at N.C. State.
Green Bay -- No team listens to its draft board like the Packers. In fact, they don't listen to anything else. They expect all their picks to make the team and play for a long time. If I were a draft-eligible player, I would love to get the call from GM Ted Thompson. Bryan Bulaga fell right to them, and he addresses one of their biggest needs. Thompson did not hesitate to jump up into the third round for safety Morgan Burnett, who had 14 interceptions in college and will challenge starter Atari Bigby. Many people thought they would select an outside linebacker in the second round, but the top five candidates were already gone, so they took a five-technique defensive tackle, Mike Neal.
Houston -- It was no secret the Texans needed a running back, and they got him in the second round with Ben Tate. If they moved up to get Ryan Mathews, they would have lost their second-round pick, and missed out on first-round pick Kareem Jackson. As it stands, they traded down in the second round, still got Tate and used the extra pick to get TE Garrett Graham. They grabbed Shelly Smith and Trindon Holliday in the sixth round. Smith is an undersized guard and Holliday was the smallest player in the draft.
Indianapolis -- Polian was delighted when DE Jerry Hughes fell right to him at No. 31. Hughes is in the mold of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, and he will see lots of action right away. Polian told me linebacker Pat Angerer fits the mold of the Colts linebackers. Indy entered the draft with only four corners on the roster, and with all the nickel and dime defense it plays, Kevin Thomas was a good pick in the third round. Guard Jacques McClendon was a bit of a surprise in the fourth round, especially with his college teammate, the versatile Chris Scott, still on the board.
Jacksonville -- The Jaguars took some criticism when they chose DT Tyson Alualu at No. 10 but they were true to their board and only time will tell if the board was right. I really liked Alualu at the Senior Bowl, but I also recognized the Jags had only six picks coming into the draft. When the Jags came right back in the third round for another defensive tackle (D'Anthony Smith), it set into motion the release of veterans John Henderson and Montavious Stanley. The Jags could still use a guard/center type, as well as a developmental quarterback.
Kansas City -- The Chiefs surprised a few people with the Eric Berry pick and followed it up with another surprise by selecting Dexter McCluster in the second round. My favorite mid-round pick was center/guard Jon Asamoah. The Chiefs still have work to do on both lines and Scott Pioli has always made a living in the post-draft signings.
Miami -- The Dolphins came into the draft looking to help the defense and came away with two potential starters for 2010. Jared Odrick will work his way into the defensive line rotation, and Koa Misi will compete for a spot at outside linebacker now that Jason Taylor and Joey Porter are gone. John Jerry has very good feet, will push to play guard immediately and could someday be a tackle. Keep an eye on fifth-round pick Reshad Jones. He's good enough to compete for a starting role at safety this season.
Minnesota -- The Vikings got out of the bottom of the first round because they knew they could get the corner they wanted (Chris Cook) in the second. Choosing RB Toby Gerhart in the second round makes sense on multiple levels. He will assume some of the third-down duties Chester Taylor handled, backs up Adrian Peterson with a power running style and can do some of the H-back things Jimmy Kleinsasser does. Everson Griffen was a gift to start off the fourth round. Joe Webb, a former QB, is another versatile athlete who came cheap in the sixth round. I would still like to see the Vikings add a defensive tackle to their rotation, but they did not get one in the draft.
New England -- The Patriots used 12 draft picks to build up the back end of their roster and get younger. This is the third year in a row they took a corner high in the draft. The release of Adalius Thomas suggests second-round pick Jermaine Cunningham fits significantly into their plans at outside linebacker. In the Patriots' 3-4 looks, second-rounder Brandon Spikes will play. Three University of Florida players were drafted by New England, continuing the pipeline from Urban Meyer's program. The Patriots made a real smart move in the fifth round taking punter Zoltan Mesko, who is left-footed and excelled at dropping punts inside the 20-yard line.
New Orleans -- The Saints surprised a few people by taking corner Patrick Robinson in the first round when S Nate Allen and DT Brian Price were still on the board. It may mean Malcolm Jenkins is moving to safety. They were able to get DT Al Woods, a guy they wanted all along, in the fourth round. Second-rounder Charles Brown will push for the right tackle job by midseason. They could still use a linebacker and maybe one more running back.
N.Y. Giants -- Big Blue took some criticism for taking raw DE Jason Pierre-Paul in the first round, when DE Derrick Morgan and LB Sean Weatherspoon were still on the board. The Giants have made many good selections over the years at defensive end, and they know what they are doing. DT Linval Joseph was climbing draft boards the whole month of April and now the club has leverage on veterans Rocky Bernard and Chris Canty. Jerry Reese told me after the draft that he likes the linebackers on the team, and that Osi Umenyiora isn't being traded.
N.Y. Jets -- The Jets insisted on locking up OLB Jason Taylor before the draft, which I understand, but they could have maybe waited for Adalius Thomas to get cut loose. Monitor that situation to see if the Jets also show interest in Thomas. Kyle Wilson was a bargain at No. 29 as a nickel corner and return man. Keep in mind, the Jets could play close to 55 percent of their defensive plays in a nickel or dime look. Vladimir Ducasse is talented, but raw, and has big shoes to fill if he replaces released left guard Alan Faneca. The pick of fourth-rounder Joe McKnight made Leon Washington expendable, but time will tell if McKnight can replace Washington's production. The Jets could still use a defensive end or safety.
Oakland -- This was one of the best drafts in recent history for Oakland. The Raiders got a very solid leader type in the first round, LB Rolando McClain, and patiently waited for DT Lamarr Houston in the second round after trading down. Taking 6-foot-8 OT Jared Veldheer in the third round gave them a plan to take raw but talented OT Bruce Campbell in the fourth. Jacoby Ford is a classic Al Davis speed guy. Trading for Jason Campbell was the best move of all, and now this team has a chance.
Philadelphia -- Andy Reid used 13 picks in the draft to load up on young players and the over-riding theme was pass rush. Between Brandon Graham, Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, Ricky Sapp and Jamar Chaney, they secured prospects with 80.5 total college sacks. The first five picks and nine of the 13 were for Sean McDermott's defense. Keep an eye on Chaney. He is unlikely to crack the starting lineup after the trade for Ernie Sims, but has the talent to eventually start.
Pittsburgh -- Pittsburgh had 10 draft picks and first-rounder Maurkice Pouncey will be a 10-year starter at guard, and eventually center. After that pick, the Steelers couldn't resist linebackers, as usual. They selected three to bolster an already strong unit. They brought back corner Bryant McFadden in a draft-day trade to address their top need at corner. Seven corners were off the board by the time they picked in the second round and 10 by the time they went in the third. With Santonio Holmes gone, they grabbed two receivers with unbelievable production. Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown have 590 receptions and 56 touchdowns between them in college.
San Diego -- The Chargers moved up for who some called the best back in the draft, Ryan Mathews. After taking Mathews, they concentrated on defense. Third-rounder Donald Butler will challenge for playing time at inside linebacker. Fourth-rounder Darrell Stuckey does the same at safety and big Cam Thomas gives the Chargers a two-man rotation on the nose. I really like the late fifth-round pick of QB Jonathan Crompton, with Norv Turner coaching him as a potential No. 2 down the road.
San Francisco -- I liked the two offensive linemen the Niners took in the first round (Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati) and the second-round pick, Taylor Mays. Third-rounder Navorro Bowman will not break into the starting lineup this year, but he stands a very good chance in 2011. Sixth-rounder Anthony Dixon puts a solid power back in the running back group to take pressure off Frank Gore, and sixth-rounder TE Nate Byham was picked to beef up the run blocking. I would hope they are still thinking of a quarterback to push Alex Smith.
Seattle -- What's not to like about a team that some would argue got the best left tackle and free safety in the draft in first-rounders Russell Okung and Earl Thomas? They got Golden Tate in the second round, and you know Pete Carroll will be experimenting with using Tate in the Wildcat. Trading for Leon Washington and LenDale White answered the running back situation and allowed them to address strong safety and corner. The best late-round pick was TE Anthony McCoy, who has stiff competition from veterans John Carlson and Chris White. The Seahawks are still looking for more players to raise the level of competition.
St. Louis -- If you believe you are looking at a franchise QB, you take him and that's exactly what the Rams did by drafting Sam Bradford first overall. At least eight of the 11 draft picks should make the team. OT Rodger Saffold, taken in the second round, was a fast riser up draft boards in recent weeks and should be a Week 1 starter at guard with an eye on a tackle spot next year. The Rams still need a third-down running back who would help take the burden off Steven Jackson.
Tampa Bay -- After getting rid of both coordinators last year, the Bucs finally settled down and played decent football. Raheem Morris returned the defense to the Monte Kiffin package and went out in this draft and double downed on defensive tackles Gerald McCoy (first round) and Brian Price (second round). There will be some real quickness upfront with those two on board. Second-round WR Arrelious Benn is a fine blocker, as well as receiver, and he may be good enough to crack the lineup this year. Seventh-round LB Dekoda Watson will be a factor on special teams.
Tennessee -- The Titans had a solid draft that met all their needs, except at outside linebacker. If Keith Bulluck comes back, then they will be fine. Derrick Morgan was a no-brainer in the first round and was a safer pick than Pierre-Paul, who went one pick earlier. WR Damian Williams reminds me of Donald Driver and will be a factor by midseason. The most interesting selection may be safety Myron Rolle in the sixth round. Some day he will be a doctor, but he is going after his football career right now, despite many NFL people questioning his passion for the game.
Washington -- The Redskins began the draft with four picks, finished up with six choices and attacked their offensive line problems with three of them. While the Redskins were building up the offense in the draft, they just didn't have enough picks to help a defense that is converting from a 4-3 to a 3-4. The only defensive player selected was linebacker Perry Riley, who will challenge Rocky McIntosh for an inside spot. Look for GM Bruce Allen to continue to use free agency to build up the back end of the roster.
Minicamps: April 30-May 2 (rookies), June 23-25 OTAs: April 20, May 4, May 6, May 11, May 13, May 18, May 20, May 24-25, May 27, June 1, June 3, June 21-22
Minicamps: April 13-15 (voluntary), April 30-May 2, June 22-24 (voluntary) OTAs: May 11, May 13, May 18, May 20, May 25, May 27, June 8, June 10, June 15, June 17
Usually we use the term "pack-mule" as a reference to drug smugglers crossing the border, but here in Las Vegas we have our own version of a "pack-mule," one who attempts to run bets deceptively to sports books all over the city.
This is a tale about a businessman and his Vegas pack-mules. No names will be mentioned, just to protect all involved, but this tale is based on very true and current events happening within the small community of Las Vegas sports books.
A certain well-known, somewhat controversial Mr. Big-like businessman in Las Vegas is using various athletes and personalities from the sports world to make his high-stakes bets.
These celebrities, who already have ties to casinos with their high-end gambling in various games, have been lured into the web of this tricky spider because of their own inability to win consistently in sports.
It’s not unusual for some of the sharpest gambling minds in the world to be the worst sports bettors. Former World Series of Poker Champion Stu Unger had one of the best mental calculators to play favorable hands at most casino games, but the one area he couldn’t calculate correctly was sports betting, and he lost a lot of money trying to chase because he refused to believe he couldn’t beat the game.
In this new age of deception, the businessman who has been a prominent force in the Vegas betting world for decades with great success, has now got himself a couple of celebrities that have forced upper management to balance the pros and cons of keeping the stars happy for fear of negative publicity or do what’s right for the stock holders who wouldn’t be too happy knowing certain individuals were turning their heads as they were essentially getting taken to the cleaners nightly.
In a trade-off for making the businessman’s bets, the celebrity gets in on the action himself, and satisfies his high-stakes thrill of gambling, winning like never before in sports.
The old scenario by this businessman was to get regular associates/runners to play heavy in the slot machines or table games so they could get an "in" with a casino host, who would battle with the general manager of a casino, against the Sports Book Directors’ wishes, to get this particular player higher limits in the sports book.
After losing possibly a few hundred thousand dollars under this arrangement, the GM would then see that he was set up and then cut the players limits back down to normal limits, assuming they allowed them to continue playing at all.
On other occasions, the businessman, who has ties throughout the city because of all his ventures – let’s just say golf courses – would be upset that one of his runners was thrown out and call the president or CEO of the company and cause a stir.
Most casino executives don’t understand how the sports betting world works, but they do understand and love ideas to create more revenue and that’s what they’re sold on in most instances.
Many folks who don’t understand the process say, "Just take the bets, it will all wash out in the end," or "He can’t win all the time, take the bets."
Yes, he CAN win all the time and usually does, and it doesn’t wash out in the end. The only thing cleaned in the washing process are the sports books.
The businessman has a highly-sophisticated sports betting operation that in many cases has better formulas to create their own lines than the book has itself. The sports book offers side and totals wagering options to every game.
During the NBA or baseball season, there are up to 60 betting options a day offered by the books. The businessman’s goal is to find the five or six bad lines, those that deviate from his own, and pound them for as much as he can.
Some sports books will not even take his action. For one, he’s just too good and can’t be beat.
But other instances have him using deceptive moves to try and fool a book into getting more action on a game, such as sending two of his guys to multiple books under the same umbrella and synchronizing wagers on the same game at two different places. The hope is that the book’s manager will think it was merely a coincidence.
Should the book director throw out the runners, barring them from playing at any of their books, then the flood of calls come into the director’s bosses with an attempt to make the director look like he’s throwing away money, that he’s hot headed, and that word of mouth through the businessman’s vast network of friends is going to harm future business.
In some cases, through a series of phone calls, the two runners who had just deceived and attempted to circumvent limits will be back in the same book, mocking the director, a person who was initially best thought of to run the book operation with the goal of making money and protecting the house.
It’s a slap in the face to the director and it also shows who’s running the show, even though this businessman is not even affiliated with the company.
As more casinos merged throughout Las Vegas, it became harder to bully the executives. There are only a few sports books that are the originator, or hub, of lines with several books underneath using the same line that have no control of the hub’s line movement. It also became much harder for the businessman to infiltrate, but he still gets his money out there, just not as much as he wanted.
That’s where the celebrities come into play. Certain well-known names, particularly in the sports world, have some of the highest lines of credit in the casinos and their play is coveted because they have seemingly unlimited resources.
The businessman has used his schmoozing tactics and perks to create a nice relationship with these people. Because of their play in the casino, they can bet just about anything in the book they want. In past instances, they have played heavily in the book, but their play never carried weight despite the large wagers because they bet poor lines, lost much more than they bet and set a profile of being "square."
Last year all of a sudden, these players were now betting the moves before they happened and always getting the best of the line, and they were winning and winning Big!
After a long string of wagers, their new profile indicated affiliation with the businessman because the same plays were made by other known associates/runners of Mr. Big.
Just about every book is wise to the situation and most have terminated the relationship. However, there are still a few that are somewhat forced to take the action because of upper-management and can’t do anything about it, despite knowing the consequences, which are often times big losses.
Losing is always part of the game in the sports book world, but under-handed, strong-arm tactics to circumvent the system that forces a book to lose is a hard pill to swallow, especially when it’s upper-management that’s washing it down.
When the NFL changes rules that could possibly put more points on the board, one of the many reactions in Las Vegas was how it will affect the initiation of totals offered on games from Vegas bookmakers and oddsmakers.
Starting with the 2010 season, if a team wins the OT coin toss and then kicks a field goal, the other team gets the ball. If the game becomes tied again after that next series, play will continue under the current sudden-death rules.
If the team winning the toss immediately scores a touchdown, however, the game is over.
These rules are currently in place to be used just for playoff games, but there is a possibility that the rule could be added for the regular season when the owners meet again before the regular season.
It makes sense to run the regular and post season the same way. The initial announcement for postseason only could have been just an effort to hear public opinion. So far, so good. There haven’t been too many uproars from fans or the media except for those that always hate change no matter what it is.
How it affects the books will be interesting to see. Twelve extra points as a possibility is pretty large, but how large in the overall equation remains to be seen. Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay believes it will be a wait and see approach.
“If they actually did change it for the regular season as well, it could be something to take notice of when we put the lines up, but I don’t think there will be too much adjusting,” Kornegay said.
“Last year there were only 13 regular season games that went to overtime out of all the games, why give an edge for under players on all the games in hopes that we protect what is not even likely to occur once a week. Who can predict overtime?”
In all there were only 15 games total that went into overtime when including the two postseason games. Of all the games, only two had the possibilities of going over the total under the new rules. Of those two, one would have needed all 12 possible points to make the over.
The other totals were either decided before overtime started, or the winning team scored a touchdown in overtime which ends the game under both new and old overtime formats.
More than anything, the rule may actually change how a coach who wins the coin flip approaches his decision making on that first drive. What’s the call on fourth and three from the 30-yard line? Do you make the field goal and hope your defense can stop the other team from scoring a touchdown where you lose, or do you go for the first down with knowledge that if you don’t make it, your defense can’t give up 35 yards to put them in winning field goal range?
When college football changed their rules allowing for overtime where there were possibilities of having unlimited scores if each team matched each other, there wasn’t much of a reaction at all by the Las Vegas books.
“The only time a rule change was taken notice of by the books was the college football play clock continuing on first downs which proved to equate to around 2.7 points per game less, that‘s it,“ said Lucky’s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro.
If someone could actually predict overtimes at stacked odds, they could make a lot more money from that than betting totals at 11 to 10 odds, but good luck.
The bottom line is that we shouldn’t expect to see much adjustment at all from the bookmakers unless there are more rules into place that change the actual 60 minutes of regulation.
Below is a list of all the overtime games from 2009 showing who won the coin toss, the eventual winner, and how they scored along with the betting total on the game.
2009 NFL overtime games
Winners of the overtime coin flip in 2009 only won six of the 15 games on the advantage of the first OT drive, preventing opponents from overtime possession.
Coin-toss winners were 8-7 in these 15 overtime games. Home teams were 10-5.
Week 1, at Pittsburgh: Steelers 13, Titans 10 (Pittsburgh won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total stayed at 36 all week. Even with the maximum possible of 12 points being scored this game would have stayed under the total.
Week 4, at Cleveland: Bengals 23, Browns 20 (Cincinnati won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on fourth drive) Total opened 38.5 and closed at 38 and was already decided before overtime began.
Week 5, at Kansas City: Cowboys 26, Chiefs 20 (Kansas City won toss, received OT kickoff, Dallas scored on second drive) Total opened 43 and closed at 43.5 with Cowboys sending the game to over with a touchdown under normal circumstances.
Week 5, at Denver: Broncos 20, Patriots 17 (Denver won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total stayed at 41.5 all week. This is an instance of where the total could have been affected by the new rules. If the Patriots get the ball back to answer and either tie the score or score a touchdown, this game goes over. It’s likely the NFL rule, if changed for regular season as well, would only be a 15 minute period with the game being a tie if no one scored. So this could conceivably remain under the total as it ended.
Week 6, at Jacksonville: Jaguars 23, Rams 20 (Jacksonville won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total opened 41.5 and closed at 42.5 with the over getting the money under the current format and possible format.
Week 6, at New York Jets: Bills 16, Jets 13 (New York Jets won toss, received OT kickoff, Buffalo scored on third drive) Total opened 37 and closed 35.5. Under the extreme scenario of the maximum 12 points being scored, this game could’ve been sent over the number.
Week 11, at Kansas City: Chiefs 27, Steelers 24 (Pittsburgh won toss, received OT kickoff, Kansas City scored on first drive) Total was 40 and was already decided before overtime.
Week 11, at New York Giants: Giants 34, Falcons 31 (New York Giants won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total was 47 and was decided before the game went into overtime.
Week 12, at Baltimore: Ravens 20, Steelers 17 (Pittsburgh won toss, received OT kickoff, Baltimore scored on second drive) Total was 35 and went over the number under current rules of overtime.
Week 13, at Washington: Saints 33, Redskins 30 (Washington won toss, received OT kickoff, New Orleans scored on first drive) Total was 47 and was long decided before overtime.
Week 15, at Tennessee: Titans 27, Dolphins 24 (Miami won toss, received OT kickoff, Tennessee scored on first drive) Total opened 40 and closed at 43, with both numbers easily going over the number in regulation.
Week 16, at New Orleans: Buccaneers 20, Saints 17 (Tampa Bay won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total opened 49.5 and closed at 48.5. Even with the maximum 12 points scored, this game still stays under.
Week 16, at Chicago: Bears 36, Vikings 30 (Chicago won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on third drive) Total was 41 and was over the number before overtime started.
Wild-card playoffs, at Arizona: Cardinals 51, Packers 45 (Green Bay won toss, received OT kickoff, Arizona scored defensive touchdown) Total was what ever you wanted to make it and it sill goes over regardless of what happened in overtime, or the fourth quarter for that matter.
NFC Championship, at New Orleans: Saints 31, Vikings 28 (New Orleans won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total opened 53 and closed at 54 and went over the number in regulation.
After all was said and done on Super Bowl Sunday, results turned out to be mixed, but nonetheless okay for the Las Vegas sports books.
Many in the books were a little worried about the handle, or lack of it, going into Super Bowl weekend. They weren’t seeing as many large bets as normal on either side and they were also missing visitors from back East due to cancelled flights.
"I don’t know exactly when those people who were delayed finally got into town, but when they landed here, it was apparent by the rise in our handle," said MGM MIRAGE (MGM) race and sports director Jay Rood.
"By 10 am Sunday, we were trending about 10% less than last year’s Super Bowl," Rood continued. "When we tallied everything up after kickoff, we were up 3% over last season."
When the sports books posted the score with the Saints winning 31-17, just about every book in the city did well, though some did better than others. The best scenario would have been the Colts winning, but not covering, and staying under the total of 57.
One of the few books that had their best scenario unfold was the M Resort’s race and sports book.
"We couldn’t be happier with the outcome," said M Sports Book Director Mike Colbert, "It was the best result we could have had. We never moved off the 4½."
The M was ahead of the curve a little bit by having the game at 4½ for almost the entire two week duration while most books in town were at 5 or 5½. By game time, just about everyone in town was sitting at 4½.
"We saw sharp money come in late with the Saints while we had early sharp money on the Colts money line, laying -200," said Colbert.
Overall, the M Resort might have done $10 million in handle, an amount fueled by hundreds of prop bets, as well as In-running wagering, which can turn over a ton of money because of the constant, real time bets taking place.
Of course, the Las Vegas Hilton is the unquestioned leader in Super Bowl props (about half of the casino’s Super Bowl handle comes from prop bets), though sports director Jay Kornegay said players probably did well enough to cut into the Hilton’s bottom line, and "there were a lot of bets on the Saints."
He estimated the Hilton would probably break even or come out slightly behind the players this year.
Lucky’s Sports Books, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, expected to have a winning ledger, even if it’s just a slight win, when everything is tallied, even though the "money line was bad" for the house.
Professional poker player Phil Ivey reportedly made wagers totaling well over $3 million at various sports books around town. Despite the large bets, many books by game day had the Colts at minus-190, much lower than the amount bet by Ivey.
Is it possible that Ivey was part of an overall scheme to sway the market one way? It’s not uncommon to see, but it’s uncommon to have a celebrity in the middle of it. That’s a lot of seed money to lay down, then again, if the Colts won with the Saints covering, the bettor wins both sides.
The sports books all reported great handle on the various props. The local sports books seemed to do poorer than the Strip with the special point spread props laying -3½, -7½ and -10½ with the Saints at big plus money.
Some of the other props that the public did well with was under 8 punts, yes on a defensive touchdown, the yes on the two-point conversion and player to score first.
"Pierre Garcon got a lot of respect from the public and they were playing him to be that guy to score first, and he did," said Rood.
The Strip properties also enjoyed posting the future odds to win the Super Bowl, which had been up since last February; those wagers added about 30% extra to the winning bottom line.
"It was a really good day," said Rood, "We did all right. We had great two-way action on the game and did well against some of the larger bets that we did take."
Overall handle results won’t be known for another two days as the Nevada Gaming Control Board compiles all the data from across the state, but it’s safe to speculate at this point that the Strip properties held a higher win percentage than the local places.
Regardless of who did what, most bookies expect the handle will top last year’s lackluster $81.5 million, even though it probably won’t come close to the record $94.5 million wagered in 2006.
Nevada’s Gaming Control Board will report the statewide Super Bowl handle, as well as the amount won (or lost!) by the sports books later this week.
View the report as soon as it’s available here on this website.
The end of a long NFL season is prime time for value shoppers at Las Vegas sports books. Some of the year's best betting opportunities can be found by sifting through the hundreds of Super Bowl propositions offered by the books.
The Indianapolis Colts are favored by 5 points over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, and soon we'll find out if Colts quarterback Peyton Manning wins his second championship. But another game has already kicked off for many bettors who are just as serious about winning.
The props bets have been on the board for about 10 days, and the key is finding the edge, because the books are more vulnerable than ever at this time of the year.
There is no true comparison to any other sport in the value offered this week.
A normal Saturday college basketball menu is comparable only because there are so many games. With more than 100 games on one day, and only two days to update ratings for more than 200 teams, there are always bound to be five or six faulty lines. But usually it takes one of the sharp betting groups to ferret out the mistakes.
The telling sign that a sports book is aware of its exposure is the betting limits placed on the general public. The most solid lines are offered with the highest limits -- such as the standard NFL line, the most sound line in the world. The areas that are open to more severe liability -- meaning the books don't always win -- are always kept at minimal limits.
The lowest per-game limits offered by most books are totals, such as college football and basketball, which are generally offered at a range of $500 to $1,000. Totals are statistically the lowest hold percentage most books have in their category analysis breakdown.
The Super Bowl will generate thousands of dollars more on each side of a proposition bet than any college total, but the limit for each prop stays in the same range because the books are in a vulnerable situation by extending the betting menu to such extremes.
So why would a bookmaker, whose mandate is to limit risk and liability and protect company funds, offer so many options that could offer the house less than maximum protection?
Basically, it's all about image, respectability and publicity of a property brand name or theme.
The last thing a Las Vegas sports book wants is a reputation for having the poorest selection of Super Bowl props in the city. This is a book's time to shine and show there is no need to go anywhere else -- everything you want is right here.
It comes down to this. The two best teams all year are now finally going to face off in what should be an epic shoot out. With all the money coming on the Colts for the first 10 days or so the Saints money is now coming in. So, if you liked the Saints you probably should have taken them 2 or 3 days ago when you could have gotten them at 5.5 or even 6. If you like the Colts you may want to wait close to game time where you might see 4 again.
Stats. Stats. Stats. There is a statistic or a trend for just about everything you can think of in order to decide which side you want to take. Saints 6-1-1 in their last 8 on grass, Colts 9-1-1 in their last 11 on grass. Both teams started 13-0, both teams were 7-1 on the road. The list goes on and on and on. In the end there is something or a few things that seems to stick out the most and will probably be the deciding factor in which way you go. I have mine and here they are.
The first thing I thought just like most people did is that the Colts looked really impressive in their wins over the Ravens and Jets while The Saints had to go to overtime to beat the Vikes. It made me wonder what the line would be right after the NFC conference game was over. Not what it should be but what it would be. Considering public's perception and memory I figured the Colts would be 3 point favorites and it wouldn't move much. After a couple days seeing the money pouring in on the Colts at almost 3-1 I started (again) thinking what the line should be.
When looking at these two teams over the entire season and not just the last game or two there is no doubt in my mind that this game should be a pick'em. Nothing more, nothing less. Therefore, getting the Saints at anything above 3 points is huge value on a neutral field.
Now anyone who's followed my picks all year has noticed that I like to take dogs in good spots so it's only fitting that I end the year with a dog. I guess this is the point where I have to throw out some stat or trend to back up my selection. There are two that I like best. The first is the Saints defense was 2nd overall this year with 39 turnovers and a +11 ratio while the Colts were just +2. The second stat is the Colts were 30th in the league on 3rd down defense. Now some say they play a bend but don't break style and that's why they give up a lot of 1st downs. That may be true but the Saints will get in the endzone often if the Colts play that style of D this Sunday.
I like this one to be a classic shoot out with the Saints winning the turnover battle and ultimately the game.
Saints 42 Colts 38
I also took a few props...
I have Brees to score the 1st TD at 18-1
I have the Saints to score exactly 42 points at 40-1
and the Saints to score exactly 48 and 49 points ( two bets) both at 80-1
I loved under 8 punts for the game when it opened and it was +110 but when I got there it was -190.
I also missed out on over 76 total points at 16-1 it was 4-1 when I got to the window. Oh well.
Trying to find a few props I feel most comfortable with was tough searching through the 350 props that the Las Vegas Hilton offered. However, I found a few I do like just based on what I have seen this season, not taking a shot at middles of some of the free money out on scalps.
The player I have been looking at is Joseph Addai and what I believe his role will be in the game. All season long, Addai has been just good enough and reliable enough to show that the Colts can run the ball a few times to try and keep the defenses honest by showing the run.
He didn’t have a 100 yard game all season. In fact, his high for the regular season was 79 yards in Week 13. His season-high including the postseason was 80 yards against the Jets in the AFC Title game.
In 12 of his 17 games played this season, Addai rushed for less than the posted total of 65 ½ at the Hilton. In seven of those instances, Addai rushed for less than 50 yards.
Another note to keep track of is that back-up Donald Brown is healthy and when Addai had his best rushing games of the season in Week 13 and 14, Brown was out.
Brown was an intricate part of the Colts offense before getting hurt in Week 7. Over the same span, Addai didn’t crack higher than 64 yards in any game.
I would expect to see Brown be more of impact for the Colts Sunday and give the Saints a look the Colts haven’t shown for a few months. If Brown does see more action as I expect, the Addai prop numbers on the 'under' will all come in easily.
Should Brown stay in the six carries range like he’s been the last few weeks, I still like the 'under' on most of Addai’s rushing props.
Another prop available is the longest rushing attempt by Addai, set at 12 ½ yards. This is a volatile prop that could go either way, such as the Colts being in a third and long situation with a draw gaining 14 yards, but still having to punt.
Addai’s longest run of the year was 21 yards. Five times Addai had a game with less than a 12-yard rushing attempt. I lean to the 'under' on this prop.
The one prop that I do like Addai to do well in is for him to score a touchdown. When the Colts get inside the 5-yard line, the ball usually goes to Addai and somehow he always comes through. He had 10 rushing touchdowns in 15 regular season games this season with an additional three receiving.
