Thursday, October 29, 2009

Las Vegas Money Moves: Lots Of Over-Inflated Lines in Week 8 Pro football Lines

by Micah Roberts

the aftermath of last week’s awful Week 7 of pro football action, the Las Vegas Sports Books have tried to combat the correct public perception of a few teams by inflating the lines of a few teams beyond what the power ratings and Las Vegas Sports Consultants suggest.

Public favorites like the Saints and Colts who have combined to go 11-1 against the spread this season have had almost 3 points added to their ratings this week. LVSC recommended the Colts -9.5 against the 49ers this week and was opened at -11.5 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book and that still didn’t stop the public who have bet it to -12.

The Saints Monday Night Football game against a good Falcons team had a release of -7.5 and the Hilton opened it -9 and was quickly raised to -10.

“We have been inflating our send numbers to the books after coming up with what our normal odds making rating would be,” said LVSC’s senior oddsmaker Mike Seba. “We have to adjust with the way things are currently and hope that things turn around. These type of high numbers used to have value in the NFL, it’s not like college where they have to impress the polls.“

As an example of what kind of adjustment has been made, Seba gave insights to his thinking in making the number for the Saints Monday night game.

“In a normal scenario, the Saints would be about a 6 or 6.5-point favorite. This is a pivotal division game for the Falcons and will be bringing their best game. In situational type of odds making, we look less at what happened to the Falcons last week at Dallas and look at what’s at stake for the Falcons this week. If they lose, so does their chances at winning the division,” explained Seba.

To show how just how big of an initial inflated number LVSC suggested at 7.5 when their ratings came up with 6 or 6.5, just consider that they straddled over “7” which is the second highest margin of victory in football over the last five years at 9.1%. Only “3” has a higher margin of victory at 14.5% over the same span.

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