Saturday, October 3, 2009
Mike T's Week 4 Pro Football Picks
by Mike T.
The first few weeks of the season I usually try to find some dogs to cover or win outright. Last week I had a tough time trying to find three of them and wound up going 1-2 putting me at 5-4 for the season. This is another tough week for me to try and find some dogs. There are 8 games that have the favorite laying a touchdown or more. With that said I only have one small home dog this week.
Miami +1 vs BuffaloChad Pennington's injury makes Miami a home dog. This doesn't seem to be as much of an issue as most would think Pennington has thrown for just over 400 yards with 1 TD, 2 ints, and a fumble lost in three games. Not exactly the type of numbers that would scare a defense. Dolphins QBs aren't asked to do much with their running game and the Wildcat. The Bills will be going without their Starting MLB and their two starting safeties. I expect to see a heavy dose of running from Brown and Williams keeping the Bills O of the field.
Miami 24 Bills 17
Cincinnati -5 1/2 at Cleveland
This is the first favorite that I am taking this year. Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions. The Browns may be the worst team in the league right now, while the Bengals seem for real and if they are these are the type of games they have to win. The Browns have one of the worst running attacks and with injuries to three linemen and a doubtful Jamal Lewis it will be even harder to run the ball. The Bengals have a nice balance on offense and should have their way with the Browns.
Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 13
Saints -7 vs JetsThe Jets are coming into a very loud and energetic Superdome without CBs Lito Sheppard and Donald Strictland. CB Darrelle Revis is also nursing a hammy but will go. That can't be good for them. This game kind of reminds me of the '85 Bears-Dolphins Monday night game. Buddy Ryan's 46 defense vs Marino's high powered offense. Fast forward a quarter century and we see Rex Ryan's blitz happy D vs Brees' use the whole field O. This game may be close for a quarter or two but in the end I think the Saints are going to roll. With the Jets thin secondary Brees will eventually find guys wide open in mismatches. I do think the Saints will win by two scores or more but I just don't like laying 7 or more. I'm going with the over in this one
Saints 38 Jets 24