Saturday, October 3, 2009

Roberts Week 4 Pro Football Picks: 2 Sides & 2 Totals

Lions +10 @ Bears:
This game rests entirely with Jay Cutler and based on what Cutler has done in his career as a big favorite, compounded with how well the Lions have played on the road in the last year make this spread way too high.

Cutler has always played to the level of his opponents at home. He has never had that killer instinct to just destroy lesser teams and part of the reason is that he’s selfish. If he blows out a team, how is he going to throw 40 times in game when the coach will likely want to run the clock out? How is he going to get his Pro Bowl stats if he plays a smart game?

Detroit should play an inspired, loose game Sunday led by the special teams of Aaron Brown and a couple of timely Cutler intercepts. Matt Stafford will do just enough to the control the game which will likely include a nice long hookup with Cal Johnson. This could actually be an upset. If that were to happen, would hate to be Cutler in Chicago on Monday. Milton Bradley thought he had it bad.
Pick: Bears 22-20

Patriots -2 vs. Ravens:
All conventional wisdom points to the Ravens with their new high tech offense and their always consistent defense to take down anyone. All the stats point to the Ravens in every angle imaginable. However, The Pats as a short favorite at home is too much to pass up.

The addition of Wes Welker will give Tom Brady his crutch back, and the added weight of every bettor in the world jumping on the Ravens bandwagon this week, abandoning their normal pattern of taking the Pats, is too much for the wooden wheels to hold. Look for Brady to find his deep ball a few times to Randy Moss in a statement game.
Pick: Patriots 34-21

Dallas/Denver OVER 42:
The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opened the game total at 44 and has been bet down to 42 while other books still have the game at 43. Last week, Denver’s total was 38 at Oakland and the Cowboys were 46 Monday night against the Panthers making the initial line appear to favor the Cowboys tempo as does the current side which has the road team bet up from an opener of -2.5 to -3.

The Broncos have the leagues number one rated defense in yardage and points scored against, but have compiled those numbers against the offenses of Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Oakland. Their offense appeared to struggle throughout all their games, but they have been affective at churning minutes off the clock with short passes and a strong running game ultimately wearing out teams in the second half.

It would appear that the initial total looks closer to what it should be, but with money betting the total down and betting the favorite up to -3, the thought process is the Cowboys will be able to expose the Broncos defense and the dink and dunk offense of Denver won’t be as good in catch up mode, unless Brandon Stokely saves the day again.

The running back issue with the Cowboys is not an issue because Tashard Choice has proven to be just as effective as Marion Barber and Julius Jones. The Broncos look to have gelled more and more each week with Josh McDaniels new system and now they finally get to have a fully functional Brandon Marshall added to the mix along with Knowshon Moreno.

All signs look to having this game resemble Dallas’ game tempo with the Giants than it does against the Panthers which should make this a very high scoring, entertaining game.
Pick: Denver 32-31

Jets/Saints total OVER 45.5:
This game opened 46 with the Saints favored by 6.5 and his since dropped a half on the total, but been bet up to Saints -7. Despite only allowing 7 points at Buffalo last week, the Saints defense is really not that good. Rex Ryan will let Mark Sanchez let it fly to expose their weakness and Thomas Jones will carry the load with timely runs.

Leon Washington is at a point now where he is ready to get looses and the Saints special teams are the perfect team for him to bust loose on. The flying Jets defense will slow Brees enough to keep the game close and put the Jets in a possible position to win. The entire world is betting the Saints and that is never a good sign, not to mention all the stars being aligned for last weeks favorite cover-fest.
Pick: Saints 30-27

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