Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Updated 2015 NFL Division odds from the LV Westgate heading into Week 4

Cardinals scoring 42 ppg thus far make them seem for real.
2015-16 NFL DIVISION ODDS

NFC EAST DIVISION

COWBOYS 9-4
EAGLES EVEN
GIANTS 7-2
REDSKINS 10

NFC NORTH DIVISION 
PACKERS 1-12  
LIONS 30
VIKINGS 11-2
BEARS 300

NFC SOUTH DIVISION
PANTHERS 7-5
SAINTS 12
FALCONS 4-5
BUCS 15

NFC WEST DIVISION
SEAHAWKS 5-7
CARDINALS 3-2
RAMS 8
49ERS 35

AFC EAST DIVISION
PATRIOTS 1-5
DOLPHINS 15
BILLS 6
JETS 12

AFC NORTH DIVISION
STEELERS 5-2
RAVENS 9-2
BENGALS 5-8
BROWNS 30

AFC SOUTH DIVISION
COLTS 1-4
TEXANS 5
TITANS 9
JAGUARS 20

AFC WEST DIVISION
BRONCOS 4-11
CHIEFS 9-2
CHARGERS 7
RAIDERS 12

**IN CASE OF TIE--NFL TIEBREAKERS WILL DETERMINE DIVISION WINNER**
**TEAMS MUST PLAY 16 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION.

Early Week 5 NFL Lines posted at Westgate

Bengals are getting +2.5 at home from the Seahawks.
NFL WEEK 5

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2015

COLTS -1
TEXANS

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2015
JAGUARS
BUCS -4

BILLS -3 -120
TITANS

BROWNS
RAVENS -8.5

REDSKINS
FALCONS -7.5

BEARS
CHIEFS -12

SAINTS
EAGLES xxxx

RAMS
PACKERS -9

SEAHAWKS -2.5
BENGALS

CARDINALS -2.5
LIONS

PATRIOTS -8.5
COWBOYS

BRONCOS -6.5
RAIDERS

49ERS
GIANTS -7

MONDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2015
STEELERS
CHARGERS -6.5

Ravens-Steelers Thursday Night Props from Westgate

The sports books will be hopping Thursday night for NFL action as usual.
NFL PROPOSITIONS

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2015

RAVENS @ STEELERS


FIRST SCORE OF THE GAME WILL BE:

TOUCHDOWN             -145

ANY OTHER SCORE       +125


TOTAL COMPLETIONS BY: JOE FLACCO (BAL)

OVER            23.0   -110

UNDER           23.0  -110


TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES BY: JOE FLACCO (BAL)

OVER             1.5  -140

UNDER            1.5  +120


TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: MICHAEL VICK (PIT) 

OVER           215.5  -110 

UNDER          215.5  -110    


TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES+INTERCEPTIONS BY: MICHAEL VICK (PIT) 

OVER             2.5  +110

UNDER            2.5  -130     


TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: LEVEON BELL (PIT) 

OVER            90.5  -110 

UNDER           90.5  -110 


TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY: ANTONIO BROWN (PIT) 

OVER            84.5  -110 

UNDER           84.5  -110 


TOTAL QB SACKS BY: BOTH TEAMS 

OVER             5.0  +110

UNDER            5.0  -130


TOTAL POINTS BY: RAVENS

OVER            23.5  -110 

UNDER           23.5   -110 


TOTAL POINTS BY: STEELERS

OVER            20.5  -110 

UNDER           20.5  -110

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Updated Westgate 2015 NFL Games of Year Numbers

No Tony Romo in next meeting means Giants -6.
2015 NFL GAMES OF THE YEAR

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2015
CHARGERS
PACKERS -9.5

RAVENS -4.5
49ERS

PATRIOTS -4
COLTS

MONDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2015
GIANTS
EAGLES -6

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2015
SEAHAWKS -8.5
49ERS

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2015
BILLS -7.5
JAGUARS @ LONDON, ENGLAND

COWBOYS
GIANTS -6

EAGLES
PANTHERS -1.5

MONDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2015
RAVENS
CARDINALS -4

Westgate opens 2015-16 NBA season win totals

Not much expected of the Lakers in 2015-16 with number set at 29.5.
2015-16 NBA REGULAR SEASON WINS

HAWKS 49.5
CELTICS 42.5
NETS 28.5
HORNETS 32.5
BULLS 49.5
CAVALIERS 56.5
MAVERICKS 38.5
NUGGETS 26.5
PISTONS 33.5
WARRIORS 60.5
ROCKETS 54.5
PACERS 42.5
CLIPPERS 56.5
LAKERS 29.5
GRIZZLIES 50.5
HEAT 45.5
BUCKS 43.5
TIMBERWOLVES 25.5
PELICANS 47.5
KNICKS 31.5
THUNDER 57.5
MAGIC 32.5
76ERS 21.5
SUNS 36.5
TRAILBLAZERS 26.5
KINGS 30.5
SPURS 58.5
RAPTORS 45.5
JAZZ 40.5
WIZARDS 45.5

** ALL SIDES ARE -110 **
** TEAMS MUST PLAY 82 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION **
** WAGERS DO NOT INCLUDE POST-SEASON GAMES **
** NO PARLAYS **

Bettors Hammer Vegas Books in NFL Week 3 Action

Bettors ride the hot teams to the cash window.
LAS VEGAS -- There were eight teams that were 2-0 against the spread coming into Week 3 and the betting public rode four of them strong in parlays coupled with two of their favorite weekly staples which made Sunday's NFL action a disaster for Las Vegas sports books.

"We lost every afternoon game after doing okay in the morning, but bettors cashed on the five to six games they really keyed on collectively," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood just prior to kickoff of the Sunday night game after tabulating the damage from the first 13 games.

"The games we did okay on were the games that didn't attract as much attention." The Patriots to the OVER was a very popular combination in the morning and the Falcons coming back against Dallas made almost everyone in the book happy; the Steelers were also good for the players, and then in the afternoon, the combination of the Seahawks, Cardinals and Bills all covering kicked in all the big parlay payouts. The Bills were a game that both the sharps and public were on the same side."

The Falcons, Steelers and Cardinals are all 3-0 ATS now and the final piece to Sunday's equation was the Broncos in the Sunday night game at Detroit where the public had no problem laying 3-points with Denver, who had won and covered its first two games while the Lions had lost and failed to cover both their games.

Rood said they needed the Lions to somewhat salvage something on the day and had a double whammy in the evening with the late baseball game as bettors rode the Pirates eight-game winning streak.

The Cubs’ Jake Arrieta would come through for the books in a 4-0 Chicago Cubs win, but the risk in that game paled in comparison to the Broncos, which was ultimately the final nail in the coffin for the books as Denver's defense led the way in a 24-12 win.

The books can sometimes escape a week when three common teams come in for the public, but when five- team parlays come cashing in at 20/1 odds and six-teamers at 40/1 are a common occurrence, there is no way the house can recoup those losses.

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Free NFL Week 3 Plays: Colts to bounce back at Tennessee

Lots of good games on the board to jump on this week. 
Colts at Tennessee

In a situation similar to Philly's, the Colts' rating has come crashing down after an 0-2 start. Indy backers can lay a generous -3 (-120) against a Titans squad they have won and covered against seven straight times. Yes, the Colts offensive line is worse than we thought coming into the season, but they are still 9.5-points better than the Titans on a neutral field. If we give Tennessee +3 for home field, the spread should be Colts -6.5, which makes laying only a field goal very cheap.

Despite the bargain created by the overreaction, public bettors will be skeptical of laying any amount of points after losing on Indy in the first two weeks. That’s understandable, but let’s not ignore the data we had coming into the season that made Indy co-favorites to win the AFC. That team is still in the locker room, and we should expect to see that real Colts squad Sunday. Colts -3 (-120) is the play.

Predicted score: Colts 27-14

Get More Free NFL Week 3 Picks Here......TheLinemakers.com

NFL Week 3 Betting Moves from Las Vegas

Jets are way over-inflated this week against Eagles.
LAS VEGAS -- Last week I talked about some overreactions to the Week 1 results which appeared to give value to a few underdogs in Week 2, five of which ended up not only covering the game, but also winning outright.

This week, the role has been reversed where a couple of underachieving 0-2 public favorites aren't laying as big a price that was posted at CG Technology books in April or at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook in its early Week 3 lines posted last Wednesday.

From the sports books point of view, they aren't just posting raw ratings. In addition to adjusting each teams' actual rating weekly, they also have to handicap what side the public will gravitate to, which is an art to itself. It's a case of supply and demand, and they're going to make you lay a larger price on teams you like and more against teams you're down on.

Last week the books knew the public hated Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Washington, Jacksonville and Oakland and all five underdogs ended up winning outright. It was one week after the public did very well picking against those same teams, and all the money they had won they gave right back to the books in Week 2.

The big difference this week in where the value rests is with a few of the popular 0-2 teams that are sitting at cheap prices. The public has been burned two weeks in a row by the Eagles, Colts and Ravens and they're ready to stick a fork in them forgetting about the reasons they were so high on them coming into the season.

The masses of public bettors are a fickle crew with their own “Zig-Zag Theory” that more times than not zags them out of a winning week. And the books know how to appeal to those public trends and reel them in like an unsuspecting trout. Sharps on the other hand, know the books' strategy and they take advantage of the numbers that have been over-modified and it's why you'll see them usually win when the books do.

The most shocking movement of a team rating from preseason to Week 3 is what has happened with the Eagles, who were bumped up almost three-points after blowing everyone out in the first three exhibition games. But after looking nothing like that preseason offensive monster in losses to Atlanta and Dallas, they're actually below the rating they started with in the preseason. It's a rapid adjustment and part of it is to handicap what the public is feeling, and right now they feel the Eagles are phony. They loved Philly the first two weeks, but they hate them now.

On the other side, you've got the Jets coming off an impressive win at Indianapolis on Monday night, and they get a bump up in the rating just because that defense figures to give plenty of teams problems all season long.

Last week the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Philadelphia as a 3 ½-point road favorite against the Jets in their early lines. After Monday night's game, the Jets were -2.5 and down to -2 on Friday. That is a massive adjustment for just one week. And the public doesn't care as their parlay action is on the New York Jets.

Read More Here for all the line moves.......VegasInsider.com

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Early Week 4 NFL Lines from Westgate Las Vegas

NFL WEEK 4

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2015

RAVENS
STEELERS -3.5

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2015
JETS
DOLPHINS -1 @ LONDON, ENGLAND

JAGUARS
COLTS -7.5

TEXANS
FALCONS -3.5

PANTHERS -2.5
BUCS

GIANTS
BILLS -5.5

RAIDERS
BEARS xxxx

EAGLES -2.5
REDSKINS

CHIEFS
BENGALS -3 EVEN

BROWNS
CHARGERS -6.5

PACKERS -6.5
49ERS

VIKINGS
BRONCOS -5.5

RAMS
CARDINALS -4

COWBOYS
SAINTS xxxx

MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2015
LIONS
SEAHAWKS xxxx

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Updated Westgate Super Bowl 50 odds: Packers the lone favorite

Super Bowl favorites? Home field will make it tough for NFC.
2016 SUPER BOWL 50
@ LEVI'S STADIUM, SANTA CLARA, CA
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2016

SUPER BOWL 50 GAME LINE

NFC -2.5 TOTAL 53.5
AFC

SUPER BOWL

SEAHAWKS 8
PATRIOTS 5
PACKERS 3
BRONCOS 9
COWBOYS 20
EAGLES 20
COLTS 16
LIONS 60
SAINTS 80
RAMS 50
49ERS 100
CARDINALS 14
STEELERS 20
RAVENS 30
BENGALS 25
TEXANS 80
CHARGERS 40
CHIEFS 25
GIANTS 80
PANTHERS 20
FALCONS 20
DOLPHINS 25
BEARS 300
VIKINGS 30
BILLS 40
BROWNS 200
REDSKINS 100
JETS 30
BUCS 100
TITANS 200
JAGUARS 300
RAIDERS 100

NFC CONFERENCE
SEAHAWKS 4
PACKERS 3-2
COWBOYS 10
EAGLES 10
LIONS 30
SAINTS 40
RAMS 25
49ERS 50
CARDINALS 7
GIANTS 40
PANTHERS 10
FALCONS 10
BEARS 150
VIKINGS 15
REDSKINS 50
BUCS 50

AFC CONFERENCE
PATRIOTS 2
BRONCOS 4
COLTS 7
STEELERS 9
RAVENS 13
BENGALS 11
TEXANS 35
CHARGERS 18
CHIEFS 11
DOLPHINS 11
BILLS 18
BROWNS 90
JETS 13
TITANS 90
JAGUARS 135
RAIDERS 45

Monday, September 21, 2015

Updated Vegas odds to win 2016 College Football Championship Game

How about some action on SEC's Georgia and LSU?
WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK ODDS TO WIN
2016 COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM-- GLENDALE, AZ
MONDAY, JANUARY 11, 2016


OHIO ST 7-4
TCU 6
ALABAMA 20
USC 25
BAYLOR 10
OKLAHOMA 30
OREGON 40
MICHIGAN ST 8
CLEMSON 20
AUBURN 80
LSU 12
GEORGIA 12
OLE MISS 10
UCLA 20
STANFORD 60
NOTRE DAME 25
FLORIDA ST 25
MISSISSIPPI ST 1000
ARKANSAS 1000
TEXAS 5000
ARIZONA ST 300
FLORIDA 100
TENNESSEE 100
WISCONSIN 300
GEORGIA TECH 200
MISSOURI 300
MICHIGAN 500
NEBRASKA 5000
VIRGINIA TECH 1000
KANSAS ST 300
ARIZONA 300
TEXAS A&M 20
MIAMI FL 200
OKLAHOMA ST 50
WEST VIRGINIA 200
LOUISVILLE 9999
SOUTH CAROLINA 1000
WASHINGTON 1000
UTAH 200
BYU 1000
PENN ST 1000
IOWA 300
NORTH CAROLINA 5000
MINNESOTA 2000
BOISE ST 500
NC STATE 1000
KENTUCKY 1000
CALIFORNIA 200
OREGON ST 5000
FIELD 500

Las Vegas sports books bounce back in week 2

Mandalay Bay sports book fared well Sunday.
LAS VEGAS -- When Week 2 NFL opening numbers were posted at the beginning of last week, it was apparent that there was luxury tax placed on a few of the teams that beat the sports books in Week 1.

The books knew who the public was going to play, and they set numbers against their emotion, and played it brilliantly to a winning week.

"We had a house player on the Steelers pretty heavy," said MGM Resorts Vice President of Race and Sports Jay Rood, referring to the Steelers easy 43-18 win as six-point home favorites over the 49ers, "but it turned out to be a good day for us."

CG Technology VP of risk management, Jason Simbal, said their books had a good day as did Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. Every book was in the black and most of it was based on the public riding the teams hard that fared well last week believing what they saw last to be gospel.

They laid more points than they should have on overpriced teams like New Orleans, Tennessee, Baltimore, Miami, and St. Louis, much to the delight of the books.

One of the few games where the public was correct on was the Patriots, who had moved to a 2-point underdog at Buffalo, and won 40-32. Rood said his MGM books had taken sharp action on the Bills, but that it was one-sided with public parlay money on the Patriots.

Read More Here......VegasInsider.com

Saturday, September 19, 2015

NFL Week 2 Selections: Patriots to handle Buffalo

Patriots should take care of business on Sunday at Buffalo.
Line: New England -1, Total: 45

The road team in this rivalry has been covering consistently over the past decade at a 14-6 ATS clip. The Bills’ 27-14 home victory as 1-point dogs over the Colts was impressive, but can they get as hyped this week as they were for that game? This looks like a let-down spot for Buffalo after beating the co-favorites to win the AFC. This week they play the other AFC co-favorite, the Patriots. It would be quite a statement for Buffalo to take both teams out in the first two weeks, but it’s hard to see that happening.

The price is cheap on the world champs, who have been at their best against winning teams, with a 10-3 ATS record over the past 13 instances. A case could easily be made for the Patriots to be 3-point favorites here. Pats -1.

Predicted score: Patriots 27-16

Read More Predictions Here....TheLinemakers.com

Week 3 College Football Betting Trends: Notre Dame-Georgia Tech very popular

William Hill book at the old Riviera.
Below is a breakdown of the point spreads and trends for tonight’s College Football games at the 104 William Hill Nevada Sports Books and on the William Hill Mobile Sports app as of Friday, 2PM PST.  

Below are the point spreads and trends of Saturday’s Top 25 College Football action.  Currently, Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame is the most popularly wagered (by total dollars) college football game on Saturday at William Hill US.  The most popular game on Saturday by number of tickets wagered is currently Stanford vs Southern Cal at the 104 William Hill Nevada Sports Books and on the William Hill Mobile Sports app.  
COLLEGE FOOTBALL 9/19/2015
CURRENT POINT SPREAD
% of TICKETS AS OF 2PM PST (9/18)
% of $’s WAGERED AS OF 2PM PST (9/18)
UCONN VS MISSOURI
MISSOURI -21
52% MISSOURI
62% UCONN
NEVADA VS TEXAS A&M
TEXAS A&M -34
67% TEXAS A&M
81% TEXAS A&M
TULSA VS OKLAHOMA
OKLAHOMA -30.5
72% TULSA
65% TULSA
AIR FORCE VS MICH ST
MICH ST -25
69% AIR FORCE
87% AIR FORCE
NORTHWESTERN VS DUKE
DUKE -3.5
51% DUKE
65% DUKE
GEORGIA STATE VS OREGON
OREGON -44
52% OREGON
90% OREGON
AUBURN VS LSU
LSU -7
61% LSU
63% AUBURN
N ILLINOIS VS OHIO STATE
OHIO STATE -35
79% OHIO STATE
97% OHIO STATE
TROY VS WISCONSIN
WISCONSIN -35
88% WISCONSIN
80% WISCONSIN
UTSA VS OKLA STATE
OKLA STATE -25
72% OKLA STATE
89% OKLA STATE
GA TECH VS NOTRE DAME
GA TECH -2.5
69% GA TECH
87% GA TECH
S CAROLINA VS GEORGIA
GEORGIA -16.5
66% S CAROLINA
86% S CAROLINA
SMU VS TCU
TCU -38
74% TCU
93% TCU
STANFORD VS SO CAL
SO CAL -9.5
83% SO CAL
83% SO CAL
OLE MISS VS ALABAMA
ALABAMA -7
72% ALABAMA
81% ALABAMA
BYU VS UCLA
UCLA -16.5
61% BYU
53% BYU
UTAH VS FRESNO STATE
UTAH -14
81% UTAH
86% UTAH

NFL Week 2 Line Movement: Lots of inflated numbers

Where is the value in week 2 NFL games?
LAS VEGAS -- A lot has changed since April when CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas first posted Week 2 of the NFL. Between a combination of injuries, preseason play and one regular season game, several teams have had their ratings massively adjusted -- some higher and lower. You've also got to factor in the books not faring well last Sunday, so a couple of teams books know that are going to get lots of love might be favored too much this week and a couple of teams the public hates is going to get extreme value, or at least a few more points.

Let's take the Buccaneers, for example, for its road game at New Orleans. CG Tech posted the Saints as 6.5-point favorites for this game back in April. The combination of seeing rookie QB Jameis Winston routinely finding trouble -- just like most first halves at Florida State last season -- which led to a 42-14 drubbing last week at the hands of the Titans and their rookie QB. The Saints didn't look all that great in their Week 1 opening loss at Arizona, but the Bucs dropoff in perception and rating forced CG to re-open the Saints -10 on Sunday night.

Is that a proper adjustment? Do we all really think we got Winston figured out? We've really got the book on him and we've come to the conclusion after one week that it's going to be a long year for him and Tampa Bay? Whatever reality might be, it's the public that tells us the answer. And with the way they're betting the game, they're saying -10 is just fine. Sharp money may disagree on game day. The Westgate SuperBook and Wynnare both dealing -9.5 while everyone else is using -10.

A situation where a team may have been upgraded way too high after one week of play is another team led with a rookie QB -- the Titans and Marcus Mariota. Were the Bucs that bad last week or was Mariota so sensational that he's worth a 5.5-point swing?

CG books opened the Browns as 4.5-point home favorites against the Titans in April. This week they re-opened the Titans at -1. Sure, the Browns offense struggled at the Jets last week, but is one week enough time to really properly gauge the ratings of both Cleveland and Tennessee?

Is Johnny Manziel really that big of a drop off from Josh McCown? Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says Manziel starting is a 2-point drop off. Sounds high, but even then -- if McCown was starting -- it would be Cleveland -1 which is still a significant jump from where the number started. The Westgate SuperBook and William Hill books have Tennessee -1.5 while Wynn is at Pick 'em.

Read More Here....VegasInsider.com

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Early Week 3 NFL Lines offered by Westgate

Packers are -6.5 at home vs. Chiefs on MNF.
NFL WEEK 3

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2015

REDSKINS
GIANTS -5.5

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2015
STEELERS
RAMS -2.5

CHARGERS
VIKINGS -3 EVEN

BUCS
TEXANS -8.5

EAGLES -3.5
JETS

SAINTS
PANTHERS -2.5

JAGUARS
PATRIOTS -12.5

BENGALS
RAVENS -3 -120

RAIDERS
BROWNS xxxx

COLTS -4.5
TITANS

FALCONS
COWBOYS -4.5

49ERS
CARDINALS -4.5

BEARS
SEAHAWKS -9.5

BILLS
DOLPHINS -3 -120

BRONCOS
LIONS PK

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2015
CHIEFS
PACKERS -6.5

Week 3 College Football Picks: Alabama rolls Ole Miss in revenge spot

You don't get many opportunities to lay Alabama at -7 or less at home, and you don't get many opportunities to back Nick Saban in a revenge spot. When Mississippi comes to Tuscaloosa this weekend, we get both.

Beyond those reasons to support Alabama, power ratings further the case. The spread suggests the Rebels and Crimson Tide are playing at a neutral site and does not factor Alabama's huge home edge, which might be the biggest in college football.

Ole Miss is a quality squad, and QB Chad Kelly might be a good one, but we can hardly make that assumption based on his play against Tennessee-Martin and Fresno State, despite the Rebels scoring over 73 points in each. This is Alabama's defense at home, and it's Kelly's first road game.

Look for the Ole Miss defense to play well enough to keep this game UNDER the total, but for Alabama to win by double digits and cover the number. Alabama -6.5 and UNDER 53.5.

Predicted score: Alabama 27-10

Read More Here....Free College Picks on TheLinemakers.com

Free Thursday Night Football NFL Pick: Broncos at Chiefs

Do you bet the value with Denver on road? or is Manning done?
Adds The Linemakers’ Micah Roberts, “The things I did see from Denver that I liked (last week) was a swarming defense that got lots of pressure on the quarterback and a secondary that was able to flock to the ball. I saw a run defense that didn't allow a good ground team to get anything going. I saw plenty of positives, and even a few with Manning, who was just barely off on a few deep balls to Emmanuel Sanders. “

Denver’s D ranked second in the league last season in yards allowed per play at 4.8.

More on the Broncos: Stats and trends

More on the Chiefs: Stats and trends

Pick: "Last week was certainly an eye opener for the Broncos as we watched Peyton Manning struggle, but let's not put too much into one game," says The Linemakers' Micah Roberts. "I still dropped Denver 1.5 points in my personal ratings, which is less than many others did.

“Manning hasn't lost to the Chiefs as a Bronco, and Denver has won the past four meetings at Arrowhead – even with Tim Tebow."

Micah continues, “Even when Manning was 100 percent the past three years, the flow of these meetings has always been slow, much by the Chiefs’ doing. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in last nine meetings, pre-dating Manning, and that's another way to attack this game, even though we’re not looking at as big a total as we’ve seen for these games recently.

"Look for a better Manning this week and for the trends to continue. Take the Broncos +3 – or better – and UNDER 42.5.”

Read More Here on TheLinemakers.com.......DEN/KC Score Prediction

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Favorites help bettors beat Las Vegas during NFL week 1

Las Vegas sports books escaped a losing day on Thursday with the back-door push on the Patriots along with the game staying UNDER the total, but there was no escaping Sunday as bettors came strong and hard with the their favorite teams, which of course were the favored sides that happened to go 9-4 against the spread on Sunday.

"It was a great Sunday for the players," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "The Rams and Bills were our only winners out of the 12 early games."

Every book came into the weekend knowing they were going to have to knock down four keys teams: the Colts (-2.5 at Buffalo), Seahawks (-4 at St. Louis), Packers (-7 at Chicago) and Dolphins (-4 at Washington).

The books got half the games in they needed, which on a regular weekend would be outstanding and destroy lots of parlay liability. Unfortunately for them, all the other favorites that mattered covered in Week 1.

There was almost no interest in the battle of No. 1 & 2 draft picks at Tampa Bay squaring off where the Bucs were 3-point home favorites, but lost 42-14 to the Titans. This was one of the underdogs that covered, but nobody cared about it.

"It was a real good day for the public," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. "They're having a festive time on this opening day."

Natural instinct has the public generally siding with the favorites. Wise guys usually take the underdogs and more times than not, it's the books rooting for the same side as the wise guys because the public parlay risk is so great.

The perfect example of a game with bitter sweet results for the house was the Bills impressive 27-14 win over the Colts in Rex Ryan's Buffalo debut. This game has stood out since the first line was posted in April because the public absolutely loved it. They love the Colts to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, so winning at Buffalo in September with quarterback Andrew Luck seemed like easy money, and "they're only laying -2.5."

The sports books had to watch the risk grow on this game for the past six months, but on Sunday morning wise guy action came in on the Bills and the number dropped all the way to pick 'em. The books were happy to be balanced before the decision came in, but all the winnings essentially passed through the books and went straight into the wise guys wallets.

"We had zero win on the parlays today," said Osborne, "and we lost on the straight bets and teasers."

With so many favorites coming in, there was lots of live parlay risk going into the Sunday night game where the Cowboys were 7-point home favorites with the total at 52. Osborne said he had a four-way loser, with each side and total, and that the risk was morphing into something massive for the Monday night game no matter who won Sunday night.

Friday, September 11, 2015

NFL Week 1 Money Moves from Las Vegas: Public dialed in on five teams

Bettors love the Packers this week at Chicago.
LAS VEGAS -- You got to love the betting public. They come firing right out of the gate in Week 1 of the NFL with chalky road favorites as their top parlay plays. Nearly every Las Vegas sports book will collectively be sweating the outcomes of five major games which will ultimately decide how big of a win the house will have on opening weekend.

“They’re taking Green Bay (-7 at Chicago), Seattle (-4 at St. Louis), Indianapolis (-2.5 at Buffalo), Miami (-3.5 at Washington) and Philadelphia (-3 at Atlanta Monday night) the most,” said top William Hill bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. “When you get good teams laying small numbers, the public will always gravitate to that side.”

That’s five road favorites, a situation where the books should fare well by getting at least three of the ‘dogs to win or cover -- maybe even more. Home underdogs getting +3 or more in the NFL are usually sides smarter money likes to focus on, and a few sharps already have.

“We’ve had some sharp money on Buffalo just before LeSean McCoy was announced as probable,” said Bogandanovich, “and we also took wise guy plays on Atlanta and San Francisco for Monday night’s games, but the public is still on the other side of all those games weighing the risk out more.”

Station Casinos book director Jason McCormick is in the same boat as Bogadanovich with public plays, and said the top sharp plays he’s gotten this week have come on the Redskins getting +4 at Miami and the Raiders +3.5 at home against the Bengals. Stations now has the Dolphins -3.5 and the Bengals -3 -120.

MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood took time away his Mirage office Friday to be at the MGM Grand press conference to promote Saturday night’s Welterweight Title bout between Floyd Mayweather and Andre Berto, a fight that isn’t attracting a lot of attention.

Read More here on Vegas money moves.....VegasInsider.com

Cardinals - Saints NFL Week 1 selection

The Cardinals should come out fired up like they always do at home.
This game matches up the best cover team from last year (Arizona at 11-5 ATS) against one of the worst (Saints 6-10 ATS). It’s a new year, but the changes since last season favor the Cardinals, foremost a healthy Carson Palmer. There’s been a downgrade for the Saints, with their most explosive, dominating player – Jimmy Graham – out of the mix. Running back Khiry Robinson is questionable and C.J. Spiller is out. Then, factor in the Saints’ mediocrity on grass. While the total is based on the Saints’ overall performance, they’ve stayed UNDER in nine of their past 11 on grass.

This line has stayed steady at -2.5 since opening numbers were posted in April. There is value with the home team and for them to keep the Saints offense in check. We have a correlation play on Arizona and UNDER, and hooking these bets up in a two-team parlay or two-team 6-point teaser is not a bad idea. The plays are Arizona -2.5 and UNDER 48.

Predicted score: Cardinals 24-17

Read More Free NFL Picks from Micah Roberts here.......Sporting News

Mayweather and Rousey putting Vegas to sleep

Mayweather, Rousey not a big deal in Las Vegas this time around.
LAS VEGAS – I'm often asked by casual sports fans and bettors about the impact a huge fight has in Las Vegas. After over 20 years in the bookmaking business, I can say this: there is nothing like it. Whether it's a marquee event in either boxing or MMA, the town is packed and the casinos are abuzz.

Back in the early 2000s, any fight featuring Oscar De la Hoya was a big event. Since then, only two names in boxing move the needle – Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao. Ronda Rousey, the UFC's new megastar, has the same sort of appeal.

But the buzz these fighters create doesn't necessarily translate to big money at the betting windows.

The hefty odds attached to Mayweather make it unrealistic for the average bettor to make a wager on him. Most casual gamblers decide go the other way by backing the big underdog and hoping for a miracle.

Read More Here from my man Hugh Citron.....Sporting News

College Football Week 2 Picks: Sparty has home field advantage

MSU home field should be the difference between W & L. 
LAS VEGAS -- Last season, the Spartans failed to hold a 24-18 halftime lead against the Ducks at Eugene and got outscored 28-3 in the second half. Things figure to be a little different this time around. The main reason is because Marcus Mariota is playing in the NFL and Oregon has to rely on transfer QB Vernon Adams Jr., who is a senior but has never played in a game this big. The next reason is the night crowd in East Lansing, which will quickly remind Adams that he's not at Eastern Washington any more.

Between the crowd and one of the best defenses in the nation, the Spartans should win this game rather easily. Senior QB Connor Cook will put points on the board against a less-than-stellar Oregon defense. Michigan State, behind Connor, has been excellent against the point spread the past two seasons at 18-8 ATS. You can trust him to get the job done.

Despite the quality of the Spartans defense, the totals on their games have apparently been too low, as 13 of their past 16 have gone OVER. Still, the only play in this one is Michigan State -3.5.

Predicted score: Michigan State 41-28

Read More Here for other predictions.........Sporting News

Video: Roberts talks Oregon @ Michigan State

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Updated Westgate odds to win Super Bowl 50

The Ravens could be serious Super Bowl contenders out of the AFC.
2016 SUPER BOWL 50
@ LEVI'S STADIUM, SANTA CLARA, CA
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2016

SUPER BOWL 50 GAME LINE

NFC -2.5 TOTAL 52.5
AFC

SUPER BOWL
SEAHAWKS 9-2
PATRIOTS 8
PACKERS 6
BRONCOS 9
COWBOYS 14
EAGLES 8
COLTS 8
LIONS 30
SAINTS 30
RAMS 60
49ERS 100
CARDINALS 30
STEELERS 20
RAVENS 16
BENGALS 40
TEXANS 40
CHARGERS 40
CHIEFS 30
GIANTS 60
PANTHERS 60
FALCONS 40
DOLPHINS 20
BEARS 80
VIKINGS 40
BILLS 40
BROWNS 100
REDSKINS 100
JETS 100
BUCS 100
TITANS 200
JAGUARS 300
RAIDERS 100

NFC CONFERENCE
SEAHAWKS 9-4
PACKERS 3
COWBOYS 7
EAGLES 4
LIONS 15
SAINTS 15
RAMS 30
49ERS 50
CARDINALS 15
GIANTS 30
PANTHERS 30
FALCONS 20
BEARS 40
VIKINGS 20
REDSKINS 50
BUCS 50

AFC CONFERENCE
PATRIOTS 3
BRONCOS 7-2
COLTS 3
STEELERS 10
RAVENS 8
BENGALS 20
TEXANS 20
CHARGERS 20
CHIEFS 15
DOLPHINS 10
BILLS 20
BROWNS 50
JETS 50
TITANS 100
JAGUARS 150
RAIDERS 50

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Steelers/Patriots Thursday night selection

Tom Brady likes to show off at home vs. good offenses. 
The Patriots have dominated this series, and the Pats-to-OVER correlation has been a strong one, cashing in six of the last 11 meetings. The OVER by itself has cashed in eight of the last 10.

These trends mirror the Patriots' tendencies when playing at home against good offenses. In the past two seasons, the Pats are 6-0 ATS at home when the total is 49.5 or higher. They’ve gone 5-0-1 to the OVER in those games. If you had blindly bet the Patriots/OVER parlay at 13-to-5 odds every week for the past four seasons, you would have cashed 31 times.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has covered only once in its last nine September games, but they should be respected in this spot, and laying a touchdown on Thursday night gives us pause.

Read More Here for free PITT/NE selection...........The Sporting News

Video: Roberts talks NFL Week 1 plays

Updated Westgate 2015 College Football Games of the Year

Get you bets in now on all the big games. 
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2015
CLEMSON -3
LOUISVILLE

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2015
FLORIDA ST -13.5
BOSTON COLLEGE

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2015
OLE MISS
ALABAMA -8.5

SOUTH CAROLINA
GEORGIA -12.5

GEORGIA TECH
NOTRE DAME -9

NEBRASKA
MIAMI FL -3

AUBURN
LSU -2.5

COLORADO -4.5
COLORADO ST @ DENVER, CO

CALIFORNIA
TEXAS -3.5

STANFORD
USC -7

BYU
UCLA -18.5

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2015
CINCINNATI
MEMPHIS -4

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2015
BOISE ST -7.5
VIRGINIA

STANFORD -13.5
OREGON ST

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2015
UCLA -3.5
ARIZONA

USC -3
ARIZONA ST

OKLAHOMA ST -2.5
TEXAS

BYU
MICHIGAN -10.5

TEXAS A&M
ARKANSAS -3 @ ARLINGTON, TX

TENNESSEE PK
FLORIDA

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2015
MIAMI FL -1.5
CINCINNATI

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2015
MEMPHIS -9.5
SOUTH FLORIDA

U CONN
BYU -16.5

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2015
OLE MISS -4.5
FLORIDA

ALABAMA -3
GEORGIA

ARKANSAS
TENNESSEE PK

NOTRE DAME
CLEMSON -1.5

ARIZONA
STANFORD -9

ARIZONA ST
UCLA -7.5

KANSAS ST
OKLAHOMA ST -7.5

TEXAS
TCU -21.5

UNLV
NEVADA -10.5

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2015
SMU
HOUSTON -16.5

WASHINGTON
USC -21

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2015
NC STATE
VIRGINIA TECH -4.5

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2015
ARKANSAS
ALABAMA -9.5

LSU -6.5
SOUTH CAROLINA

GEORGIA -2.5
TENNESSEE

TCU -12.5
KANSAS ST

OKLAHOMA -8.5
TEXAS @ DALLAS, TX

MIAMI FL
FLORIDA ST -11.5

WISCONSIN -2.5
NEBRASKA

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2015
AUBURN -11.5
KENTUCKY

UCLA
STANFORD -1

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2015
CINCINNATI
BYU -3

BOISE ST -5.5
UTAH ST

UNLV
FRESNO ST -11.5

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2015
MICHIGAN ST -4.5
MICHIGAN

OREGON -16.5
WASHINGTON

OKLAHOMA -6
KANSAS ST

LOUISVILLE
FLORIDA ST -9.5

FLORIDA
LSU -10

USC
NOTRE DAME -2

PENN ST
OHIO ST -23.5

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2015
TEMPLE
EAST CAROLINA PK

CALIFORNIA
UCLA -12.5

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2015
MEMPHIS -10.5
TULSA

UTAH ST
SAN DIEGO ST -1

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2015
UTAH
USC -10.5

KANSAS ST
TEXAS -5

TENNESSEE
ALABAMA -12

AUBURN
ARKANSAS PK

CLEMSON -4.5
MIAMI FL

FLORIDA ST
GEORGIA TECH PK

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2015
NORTH CAROLINA
PITTSBURGH -1.5

WEST VIRGINIA
TCU -18.5

OREGON -2.5
ARIZONA ST

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2015
LOUISVILLE -8.5
WAKE FOREST

LOUISIANA TECH -4.5
RICE

WYOMING
UTAH ST -18.5

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2014
CLEMSON -8.5
NC STATE

OLE MISS
AUBURN -4.5

USC -8.5
CALIFORNIA

FLORIDA
GEORGIA -7.5 @ JACKSONVILLE, FL

MICHIGAN -1
MINNESOTA

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2015
MISSISSIPPI ST
MISSOURI -2.5

BAYLOR -11.5
KANSAS ST

NEVADA
FRESNO ST -4

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2015
TEMPLE -8.5
SMU

BYU -1
SAN JOSE ST

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2015
MICHIGAN ST -6.5
NEBRASKA

MINNESOTA
OHIO ST -25.5

TCU -7.5
OKLAHOMA ST

LSU
ALABAMA -8.5

ARKANSAS
OLE MISS -4.5

AUBURN -2.5
TEXAS A&M

FLORIDA ST
CLEMSON -3

NOTRE DAME -9.5
PITTSBURGH

ARIZONA
USC -13.5

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2015
VIRGINIA TECH
GEORGIA TECH -6

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2015
USC -14
COLORADO

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2015
OREGON
STANFORD -1

GEORGIA
AUBURN -4.5

ARKANSAS
LSU -3.5

ALABAMA -9.5
MISSISSIPPI ST

OKLAHOMA
BAYLOR -10.5

BYU
MISSOURI -10 @ KANSAS CITY, MO

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2015
EAST CAROLINA
CENTRAL FLORIDA -6

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2015
CINCINNATI -7.5
SOUTH FLORIDA

AIR FORCE
BOISE ST -16.5

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2015
TCU -4
OKLAHOMA

BAYLOR -9.5
OKLAHOMA ST

MICHIGAN ST
OHIO ST -12.5

MICHIGAN
PENN ST -1.5

LSU
OLE MISS -4

GEORGIA TECH -1
MIAMI FL

ARIZONA
ARIZONA ST -6.5

USC
OREGON -2.5

UCLA -3
UTAH

CALIFORNIA
STANFORD -10.5

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2015
TEXAS TECH
TEXAS -9.5

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2015
IOWA
NEBRASKA -8.5

WASHINGTON ST
WASHINGTON -6

MISSOURI
ARKANSAS -10

OREGON ST
OREGON -21.5

BAYLOR
TCU -4.5

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2015
KANSAS ST -19.5
KANSAS

OKLAHOMA -1.5
OKLAHOMA ST

NORTHWESTERN -8.5
ILLINOIS @ CHICAGO, IL

OHIO ST -13.5
MICHIGAN


PENN ST
MICHIGAN ST -13.5

WISCONSIN -5.5
MINNESOTA

ALABAMA -2.5
AUBURN

FLORIDA ST -1.5
FLORIDA

GEORGIA -3.5
GEORGIA TECH

LOUISVILLE -3.5
KENTUCKY

OLE MISS -4.5
MISSISSIPPI ST

CLEMSON -4
SOUTH CAROLINA

VANDERBILT
TENNESSEE -24

UCLA
USC -4.5

NOTRE DAME
STANFORD -2.5

NORTH CAROLINA
NC STATE -1

VIRGINIA TECH -5.5
VIRGINIA

BYU
UTAH ST -1

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2015
TEXAS
BAYLOR -20.5

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2015
ARMY
NAVY -14 @ PHILADELPHIA, PA