NFL Overtime Rule Change Won't Affect How Las Vegas Sports Books Book Totals

By Micah Roberts

VegasInsider.com

When the NFL changes rules that could possibly put more points on the board, one of the many reactions in Las Vegas was how it will affect the initiation of totals offered on games from Vegas bookmakers and oddsmakers.

Starting with the 2010 season, if a team wins the OT coin toss and then kicks a field goal, the other team gets the ball. If the game becomes tied again after that next series, play will continue under the current sudden-death rules.

If the team winning the toss immediately scores a touchdown, however, the game is over.

These rules are currently in place to be used just for playoff games, but there is a possibility that the rule could be added for the regular season when the owners meet again before the regular season.

It makes sense to run the regular and post season the same way. The initial announcement for postseason only could have been just an effort to hear public opinion. So far, so good. There haven’t been too many uproars from fans or the media except for those that always hate change no matter what it is.

How it affects the books will be interesting to see. Twelve extra points as a possibility is pretty large, but how large in the overall equation remains to be seen. Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay believes it will be a wait and see approach.

“If they actually did change it for the regular season as well, it could be something to take notice of when we put the lines up, but I don’t think there will be too much adjusting,” Kornegay said.

“Last year there were only 13 regular season games that went to overtime out of all the games, why give an edge for under players on all the games in hopes that we protect what is not even likely to occur once a week. Who can predict overtime?”

In all there were only 15 games total that went into overtime when including the two postseason games. Of all the games, only two had the possibilities of going over the total under the new rules. Of those two, one would have needed all 12 possible points to make the over.

The other totals were either decided before overtime started, or the winning team scored a touchdown in overtime which ends the game under both new and old overtime formats.

More than anything, the rule may actually change how a coach who wins the coin flip approaches his decision making on that first drive. What’s the call on fourth and three from the 30-yard line? Do you make the field goal and hope your defense can stop the other team from scoring a touchdown where you lose, or do you go for the first down with knowledge that if you don’t make it, your defense can’t give up 35 yards to put them in winning field goal range?

When college football changed their rules allowing for overtime where there were possibilities of having unlimited scores if each team matched each other, there wasn’t much of a reaction at all by the Las Vegas books.

“The only time a rule change was taken notice of by the books was the college football play clock continuing on first downs which proved to equate to around 2.7 points per game less, that‘s it,“ said Lucky’s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro.

If someone could actually predict overtimes at stacked odds, they could make a lot more money from that than betting totals at 11 to 10 odds, but good luck.

The bottom line is that we shouldn’t expect to see much adjustment at all from the bookmakers unless there are more rules into place that change the actual 60 minutes of regulation.

Below is a list of all the overtime games from 2009 showing who won the coin toss, the eventual winner, and how they scored along with the betting total on the game.

2009 NFL overtime games

Winners of the overtime coin flip in 2009 only won six of the 15 games on the advantage of the first OT drive, preventing opponents from overtime possession.

Coin-toss winners were 8-7 in these 15 overtime games. Home teams were 10-5.

Week 1, at Pittsburgh: Steelers 13, Titans 10 (Pittsburgh won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total stayed at 36 all week. Even with the maximum possible of 12 points being scored this game would have stayed under the total.

Week 4, at Cleveland: Bengals 23, Browns 20 (Cincinnati won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on fourth drive) Total opened 38.5 and closed at 38 and was already decided before overtime began.

Week 5, at Kansas City: Cowboys 26, Chiefs 20 (Kansas City won toss, received OT kickoff, Dallas scored on second drive) Total opened 43 and closed at 43.5 with Cowboys sending the game to over with a touchdown under normal circumstances.

Week 5, at Denver: Broncos 20, Patriots 17 (Denver won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total stayed at 41.5 all week. This is an instance of where the total could have been affected by the new rules. If the Patriots get the ball back to answer and either tie the score or score a touchdown, this game goes over. It’s likely the NFL rule, if changed for regular season as well, would only be a 15 minute period with the game being a tie if no one scored. So this could conceivably remain under the total as it ended.

Week 6, at Jacksonville: Jaguars 23, Rams 20 (Jacksonville won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total opened 41.5 and closed at 42.5 with the over getting the money under the current format and possible format.

Week 6, at New York Jets: Bills 16, Jets 13 (New York Jets won toss, received OT kickoff, Buffalo scored on third drive) Total opened 37 and closed 35.5. Under the extreme scenario of the maximum 12 points being scored, this game could’ve been sent over the number.

Week 11, at Kansas City: Chiefs 27, Steelers 24 (Pittsburgh won toss, received OT kickoff, Kansas City scored on first drive) Total was 40 and was already decided before overtime.

Week 11, at New York Giants: Giants 34, Falcons 31 (New York Giants won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total was 47 and was decided before the game went into overtime.

Week 12, at Baltimore: Ravens 20, Steelers 17 (Pittsburgh won toss, received OT kickoff, Baltimore scored on second drive) Total was 35 and went over the number under current rules of overtime.

Week 13, at Washington: Saints 33, Redskins 30 (Washington won toss, received OT kickoff, New Orleans scored on first drive) Total was 47 and was long decided before overtime.

Week 15, at Tennessee: Titans 27, Dolphins 24 (Miami won toss, received OT kickoff, Tennessee scored on first drive) Total opened 40 and closed at 43, with both numbers easily going over the number in regulation.

Week 16, at New Orleans: Buccaneers 20, Saints 17 (Tampa Bay won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total opened 49.5 and closed at 48.5. Even with the maximum 12 points scored, this game still stays under.

Week 16, at Chicago: Bears 36, Vikings 30 (Chicago won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on third drive) Total was 41 and was over the number before overtime started.

Wild-card playoffs, at Arizona: Cardinals 51, Packers 45 (Green Bay won toss, received OT kickoff, Arizona scored defensive touchdown) Total was what ever you wanted to make it and it sill goes over regardless of what happened in overtime, or the fourth quarter for that matter.

NFC Championship, at New Orleans: Saints 31, Vikings 28 (New Orleans won toss, received OT kickoff, scored on first drive)* Total opened 53 and closed at 54 and went over the number in regulation.

*Won coin toss, scored on first possession

Las Vegas Sports Books Fare Well in Super Bowl, But It Could Have Been Better

by Micah Roberts

Gaming Today Las Vegas

After all was said and done on Super Bowl Sunday, results turned out to be mixed, but nonetheless okay for the Las Vegas sports books.


Many in the books were a little worried about the handle, or lack of it, going into Super Bowl weekend. They weren’t seeing as many large bets as normal on either side and they were also missing visitors from back East due to cancelled flights.

"I don’t know exactly when those people who were delayed finally got into town, but when they landed here, it was apparent by the rise in our handle," said MGM MIRAGE (MGM) race and sports director Jay Rood.

"By 10 am Sunday, we were trending about 10% less than last year’s Super Bowl," Rood continued. "When we tallied everything up after kickoff, we were up 3% over last season."

When the sports books posted the score with the Saints winning 31-17, just about every book in the city did well, though some did better than others. The best scenario would have been the Colts winning, but not covering, and staying under the total of 57.

One of the few books that had their best scenario unfold was the M Resort’s race and sports book.

"We couldn’t be happier with the outcome," said M Sports Book Director Mike Colbert, "It was the best result we could have had. We never moved off the 4½."

The M was ahead of the curve a little bit by having the game at 4½ for almost the entire two week duration while most books in town were at 5 or 5½. By game time, just about everyone in town was sitting at 4½.

"We saw sharp money come in late with the Saints while we had early sharp money on the Colts money line, laying -200," said Colbert.

Overall, the M Resort might have done $10 million in handle, an amount fueled by hundreds of prop bets, as well as In-running wagering, which can turn over a ton of money because of the constant, real time bets taking place.

Of course, the Las Vegas Hilton is the unquestioned leader in Super Bowl props (about half of the casino’s Super Bowl handle comes from prop bets), though sports director Jay Kornegay said players probably did well enough to cut into the Hilton’s bottom line, and "there were a lot of bets on the Saints."

He estimated the Hilton would probably break even or come out slightly behind the players this year.

Lucky’s Sports Books, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, expected to have a winning ledger, even if it’s just a slight win, when everything is tallied, even though the "money line was bad" for the house.

Professional poker player Phil Ivey reportedly made wagers totaling well over $3 million at various sports books around town. Despite the large bets, many books by game day had the Colts at minus-190, much lower than the amount bet by Ivey.

Is it possible that Ivey was part of an overall scheme to sway the market one way? It’s not uncommon to see, but it’s uncommon to have a celebrity in the middle of it. That’s a lot of seed money to lay down, then again, if the Colts won with the Saints covering, the bettor wins both sides.

The sports books all reported great handle on the various props. The local sports books seemed to do poorer than the Strip with the special point spread props laying -3½, -7½ and -10½ with the Saints at big plus money.

Some of the other props that the public did well with was under 8 punts, yes on a defensive touchdown, the yes on the two-point conversion and player to score first.

"Pierre Garcon got a lot of respect from the public and they were playing him to be that guy to score first, and he did," said Rood.

The Strip properties also enjoyed posting the future odds to win the Super Bowl, which had been up since last February; those wagers added about 30% extra to the winning bottom line.

"It was a really good day," said Rood, "We did all right. We had great two-way action on the game and did well against some of the larger bets that we did take."

Overall handle results won’t be known for another two days as the Nevada Gaming Control Board compiles all the data from across the state, but it’s safe to speculate at this point that the Strip properties held a higher win percentage than the local places.

Regardless of who did what, most bookies expect the handle will top last year’s lackluster $81.5 million, even though it probably won’t come close to the record $94.5 million wagered in 2006.

Nevada’s Gaming Control Board will report the statewide Super Bowl handle, as well as the amount won (or lost!) by the sports books later this week.

View the report as soon as it’s available here on this website.

The Orgin of the Las Vegas Sports Book Super Bowl Prop Bet

by Micah Roberts

Las Vegas Review-Journal

The end of a long NFL season is prime time for value shoppers at Las Vegas sports books. Some of the year's best betting opportunities can be found by sifting through the hundreds of Super Bowl propositions offered by the books.


The Indianapolis Colts are favored by 5 points over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, and soon we'll find out if Colts quarterback Peyton Manning wins his second championship. But another game has already kicked off for many bettors who are just as serious about winning.

The props bets have been on the board for about 10 days, and the key is finding the edge, because the books are more vulnerable than ever at this time of the year.

There is no true comparison to any other sport in the value offered this week.

A normal Saturday college basketball menu is comparable only because there are so many games. With more than 100 games on one day, and only two days to update ratings for more than 200 teams, there are always bound to be five or six faulty lines. But usually it takes one of the sharp betting groups to ferret out the mistakes.

The telling sign that a sports book is aware of its exposure is the betting limits placed on the general public. The most solid lines are offered with the highest limits -- such as the standard NFL line, the most sound line in the world. The areas that are open to more severe liability -- meaning the books don't always win -- are always kept at minimal limits.

The lowest per-game limits offered by most books are totals, such as college football and basketball, which are generally offered at a range of $500 to $1,000. Totals are statistically the lowest hold percentage most books have in their category analysis breakdown.

The Super Bowl will generate thousands of dollars more on each side of a proposition bet than any college total, but the limit for each prop stays in the same range because the books are in a vulnerable situation by extending the betting menu to such extremes.

So why would a bookmaker, whose mandate is to limit risk and liability and protect company funds, offer so many options that could offer the house less than maximum protection?

Basically, it's all about image, respectability and publicity of a property brand name or theme.

The last thing a Las Vegas sports book wants is a reputation for having the poorest selection of Super Bowl props in the city. This is a book's time to shine and show there is no need to go anywhere else -- everything you want is right here.

Read More Here.....

Mike T's Super Bowl Picks: Winners all Season and Looking to Close a Winner

by Mike T.

It comes down to this. The two best teams all year are now finally going to face off in what should be an epic shoot out. With all the money coming on the Colts for the first 10 days or so the Saints money is now coming in. So, if you liked the Saints you probably should have taken them 2 or 3 days ago when you could have gotten them at 5.5 or even 6. If you like the Colts you may want to wait close to game time where you might see 4 again.

Stats. Stats. Stats. There is a statistic or a trend for just about everything you can think of in order to decide which side you want to take. Saints 6-1-1 in their last 8 on grass, Colts 9-1-1 in their last 11 on grass. Both teams started 13-0, both teams were 7-1 on the road. The list goes on and on and on. In the end there is something or a few things that seems to stick out the most and will probably be the deciding factor in which way you go. I have mine and here they are.

The first thing I thought just like most people did is that the Colts looked really impressive in their wins over the Ravens and Jets while The Saints had to go to overtime to beat the Vikes. It made me wonder what the line would be right after the NFC conference game was over. Not what it should be but what it would be. Considering public's perception and memory I figured the Colts would be 3 point favorites and it wouldn't move much. After a couple days seeing the money pouring in on the Colts at almost 3-1 I started (again) thinking what the line should be.

When looking at these two teams over the entire season and not just the last game or two there is no doubt in my mind that this game should be a pick'em. Nothing more, nothing less. Therefore, getting the Saints at anything above 3 points is huge value on a neutral field.

Now anyone who's followed my picks all year has noticed that I like to take dogs in good spots so it's only fitting that I end the year with a dog. I guess this is the point where I have to throw out some stat or trend to back up my selection. There are two that I like best. The first is the Saints defense was 2nd overall this year with 39 turnovers and a +11 ratio while the Colts were just +2. The second stat is the Colts were 30th in the league on 3rd down defense. Now some say they play a bend but don't break style and that's why they give up a lot of 1st downs. That may be true but the Saints will get in the endzone often if the Colts play that style of D this Sunday.

I like this one to be a classic shoot out with the Saints winning the turnover battle and ultimately the game.

Saints 42 Colts 38

I also took a few props...
I have Brees to score the 1st TD at 18-1
I have the Saints to score exactly 42 points at 40-1
and the Saints to score exactly 48 and 49 points ( two bets) both at 80-1

I loved under 8 punts for the game when it opened and it was +110 but when I got there it was -190.
I also missed out on over 76 total points at 16-1 it was 4-1 when I got to the window. Oh well.

WHO DAT!

Super Bowl Notes Through Friday: Props and Betting Notes From Las Vegas

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Trying to find a few props I feel most comfortable with was tough searching through the 350 props that the Las Vegas Hilton offered. However, I found a few I do like just based on what I have seen this season, not taking a shot at middles of some of the free money out on scalps.


The player I have been looking at is Joseph Addai and what I believe his role will be in the game. All season long, Addai has been just good enough and reliable enough to show that the Colts can run the ball a few times to try and keep the defenses honest by showing the run.

He didn’t have a 100 yard game all season. In fact, his high for the regular season was 79 yards in Week 13. His season-high including the postseason was 80 yards against the Jets in the AFC Title game.

In 12 of his 17 games played this season, Addai rushed for less than the posted total of 65 ½ at the Hilton. In seven of those instances, Addai rushed for less than 50 yards.

Another note to keep track of is that back-up Donald Brown is healthy and when Addai had his best rushing games of the season in Week 13 and 14, Brown was out.

Brown was an intricate part of the Colts offense before getting hurt in Week 7. Over the same span, Addai didn’t crack higher than 64 yards in any game.

I would expect to see Brown be more of impact for the Colts Sunday and give the Saints a look the Colts haven’t shown for a few months. If Brown does see more action as I expect, the Addai prop numbers on the 'under' will all come in easily.

Should Brown stay in the six carries range like he’s been the last few weeks, I still like the 'under' on most of Addai’s rushing props.

Another prop available is the longest rushing attempt by Addai, set at 12 ½ yards. This is a volatile prop that could go either way, such as the Colts being in a third and long situation with a draw gaining 14 yards, but still having to punt.

Addai’s longest run of the year was 21 yards. Five times Addai had a game with less than a 12-yard rushing attempt. I lean to the 'under' on this prop.

The one prop that I do like Addai to do well in is for him to score a touchdown. When the Colts get inside the 5-yard line, the ball usually goes to Addai and somehow he always comes through. He had 10 rushing touchdowns in 15 regular season games this season with an additional three receiving.

Read More Here....

Super Bowl Notes From Las Vegas: Action Slow Through Thursday

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

This years Nevada Super Bowl betting handle will likely not pass $94.5 million and may be in danger of even equaling last seasons Steelers-Cardinals match-up which brought in $84.5 million through state sports book.


“We know it’s going to get pretty busy Saturday and Sunday,’ said South Point’s Sports Book Director Bert Osborne, “but right now (through 10 days up on the board) it’s been pretty quiet.”

Reports from many of the Sportsbooks have been similar, but most admit that they don’t keep a daily log of betting on the game throughout the two week period. They just know the bulk of their action will come on game day and the day prior.

“There could be something into the fact that there isn’t a big underdog like most years which really seems to stir up betting interest early with the people who feel they have to get it now or they’ll lose value,” says South Point’s Sports Book Director Bert Osborne.

The all-time record betting handle for the Nevada Super Bowl handle came in 2006 with the Steelers and Seahawks squared off with the Steelers a 4-point favorite. However, that year was right in the middle of the Las Vegas Boom where everyone was making tons of cash in all aspects of whatever business they were in.

If you worked in the casino, the tips were larger. If you were an executive, the bonus’ were larger. If in construction, there was tons of work because everyone was building. Real estate? The sales were through the roof. Regular folks were making hundreds of thousands of dollars by just flipping houses.

Read More Here....

Super Bowl-NASCAR Prop: What will be Higher, 1st Half Total or Winning Car Number

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book posted a Super Bowl proposition involving the winning car number in the race with the first half total of Super Bowl.


The posted number for the first half is 28 points. The Super Bowl eventual first half total between both teams is favored to have the higher number as a 3.5-point favorite over the NASCAR winner‘s car number.

This looks like a a good bet on the Super Bowl total even though there is a large variable number involved with the possibilities that car No. 48 driven by Jimmie Johnson or No. 88 driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr have a good shot at winning in Saturday’s race.

However, there looks to be way more upside in looking at the candidates to win the shootout who have car numbers ranging from No. 1 to 24, beginning with the likely winners of either No. 14 Tony Stewart or No. 18 Kyle Busch.


Another bonus in this proposition is bettors taking the Super Bowl side with a higher number also get No. 9 Kasey Kahne who was fastest in the final practice session, No. 11 Denny Hamlin, No. 1 Jamie McMurray, No. 2 Kurt Busch, No. 5 Mark Martin, No. 16 Greg Biffle, No. 17 Matt Kenseth, No. 20 Joey Logano, and No. 24 Jeff Gordon.

There are only 24 drivers racing and all but three of the top restrictor plate racers are driving with cars under No. 24 or less which makes this highly advantageous based on the offered total of the first half.

It’s quite possible that the Super Bowl could score far less points than expected in the first half, but having trying to beat a likely range of 1 through 18 makes it look pretty juicy by taking the Super Bowl side.

Super Bowl Betting Hasn't Quite Heated Up Yet, Landslide expected Saturday and Sunday

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl XLIV betting has been steady at the Las Vegas Sportsbooks with ticket counts showing up at a little higher than 5 to 2 in favor of the Colts. Just about every sportsbook in town has the Colts as 5.5-point favorites with a few variations on the total from 56 to 57.


We haven’t seen anything yet though. Over 95% of all wagers on the game will be made Saturday and Sunday of this week and that will be where the telling sign is to where this game will go. So far on a small sample ratio, the Colts appear to be that team.

And why not? They have been the most consistent team all season seemingly unfazed where they play, what surface the game is on, and don’t even blink if they find themselves in a deficit.

The Saints on the hand have many in the general public asking themselves if they are in the Super Bowl merely because of the home field advantage they had in the Superdome for the NFC title game where they looked to have been outplayed.

Had this game been in early November, the Saints would likely be the team with a 5 to 2 ticket count ratio. They were peaking at that juncture and looked to be unstoppable but then came the stretch run and they ran out of gas in the final furlong losing three straight as the playoffs began.

Fortunately for the Saints, they do have a little recent history on their side. Remember the dreadful 80’s and early 90’s Super Bowls that saw blowouts every year with NFC teams dominating?

Ever since Denver knocked off the Packers as an 11-point underdog, the Super Bowls have been pretty entertaining for the most part.

Read More Here............

Las Vegas Hilton Posts Kardashian Super Bowl Prop: Reggie Bush vs Lamar Odom

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book crew has done it again by creating one of the more interesting cross-over Super Bowl props of the season.


Much like the Super Bowl commercials, we in Las Vegas sit anxiously awaiting who will have the most clever prop during the two week break until the big game is finally played, and generally it’s the Hilton who leads the way.

The Hilton’s Executive Director of Race and Sports, Jay Kornegay, was sitting in his office Wednesday taking calls from all over the world from various media outlets when he got an interesting call. On the other line, TMZ.com, the entertainment gossip page and TV show.

They called to see if they’re were any juicy entertaining props they could discuss, and then offered a prop suggestion of their own for Kornegay to use, “Who will score more on Super Bowl Weekend, Lamar Odom or Reggie Bush.“

The angle has a nice Kardashian sister twist and makes for an interesting news story for the gossip page to utilize Sports biggest game with the entertainment world and pop culture; absolutely perfect for their show putting the two Kardashian sister‘s men against each other.

Kornegay and his staff quickly found a way to put statistics from Odom’s game on Saturday at Portland against Bush’s rushing yards in the Super Bowl so it’s a fairly even number. They finally came up with “Who will have more, Odom’s points, rebounds, and assists combined against Bush’s rushing yards.”

“It’s not unusual for us to get requests like that,” says Kornegay, “We get several a year from guests that we try to accommodate with a fair number and then offer it to everyone.”

The Hilton crew has been the industry leader in Las Vegas for Super Bowl propositions for the last decade. The crew came over from the Imperial Palace where they were the industry leader there as well.

Their much anticipated props have been on the betting board since Tuesday and their much anticipated 15 page sheet will be available to the public on Friday.

WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Lakers/Blazers--February 6, 2010) Prop closes at 7:00 pm Pacific Time
LAMAR ODOM (LAL) POINTS+REBOUNDS+ASSISTS +0.5 -110
REGGIE BUSH (NO) RUSHING YARDS -0.5 -110

Super Bowl Is Set: Vegas Bettors Immediately Jump on Colts

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The stage is set!


The Super Bowl now has its two contestants and it couldn’t be more appropriate that it comes down to the two best teams in the league. Both the Colts and Saints matched each other win for win throughout the regular season without a loss through Week 13 and now they’ll match up in what has become a rarity in pro football, the top teams from each conference facing each other.

The No. 1 seeds from each conference will square off for the first time in the Super Bowl since 1993 when the Bills played Dallas. The matchup on paper looks to be one of the better ones in years matching up the Saints and Colts passing offenses against each other.

There is also plenty of intrigue in the game led by the story of this being the Saints first trip to the Super Bowl ever. Peyton Manning will be making his second visit to the Super Bowl, a game won in Miami, the site of this year’s game. In fact, now, all four of the Colts Super Bowl games will have been played in Miami.

Then there’s the story of Manning growing up in New Orleans who is the son of Saints legend Archie Manning. We’ll have two weeks to sift through all the Super Bowl stories and hype, but the top immediate story rests with the Las Vegas line; what was offered to the public and how they responded.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent a recommendation with the Colts as a 4-point favorite and a total of 52. The Las Vegas Hilton was the first Las Vegas Sports Book to offer the Super Bowl posting the Colts at -4, but bumped their initial total offering to 56.

Read More Here.....

Mike T's AFC/NFC Championship Picks: Saints Go Marching On - Teaser Pleaser

by Mike T.

I had a very average week in the divisional round going 3-3 putting me at 7-4 for the playoffs and 39-23 for the season. All season long I had three games to chose from a list of sixteen. During the playoffs I felt I should have an opinion on every game and even some totals. It's much harder to try and have an opinion on every game instead of just the ones you like. The only game I really loved last week was the Vikings and I wound up doing OK since I got even more Vikes early Sunday morning. This week there is one side that I like and one I just can't get a handle on. I did play both totals though so I just have three picks to make.


Jets at Colts over 40
This is the game I can't get a grip on. This game opened at Colts -7 and is now 8.5 or even 9 at some places. I don't like laying more than 7 and I don't like that it's almost 2-1 public money. Normally because of those two reasons I'd be all over the Jets but rookie QBs don't have much success in conference championship games. I do like this game to go over. I don't think the Jets will hold this Colts team to 14 on the road like they did with the Chargers. Peyton Manning will get this team in the endzone a few times. I also think the Jets will find a few ways to score some points. I did tease (first time this year) the Colts down to -2 in one bet and have them in a small parlay -8.5, but I like the over much more.
Colts 27 Jets 16

Saints -3.5 vs Vikings and under 54
I was back and forth on this game all week as well. The one X factor in this game I thought would be the Vikings pass rush. We saw them just abuse Romo (just as I thought) last week and I figureed if they bring that type of pressure on Brees they should win this game. Different story this week. DTs Pat Williams(elbow), Kevin Williams(knee) and DE Ray Edwards (knee) are all questionable. Now I do expect all of them to play this week of course but I doubt they'll all be as effective as the were vs Dallas. If Brees has a split second more time than Romo did, the Saints are gonna torch this team. I also think the Saints will win the turnover battle 2-1 which may be drive killers and keep this one under.
Saints 35 Vikings 17

I don't bet teasers often but I liked this a lot...

Colts -2
Over 33.5 in Jets/Colts
Saints +3
Under 60.5 Saints/Vikings

AFC-NFC Championship Game Line Moves From Las Vegas

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Action has been good thus far in Las Vegas Sports Books for this weekends Championship games, but the sharp money hasn’t shown its hand yet. Most of the action coming in has been small money from the public with a wide array of opinions.


Ticket counts at a few different properties indicate the type of betting patterns and action that will magnify about 90% more over the weekend, but it’s a good sample ratio of what’s to come, minus the sharp money.

The Colts are trending at about a 9-to-5 edge in overall tickets written. Some books are reporting that this game is similar to what we see every year in the Super Bowl, laying the points with the favorite and taking the money line with the 'dog.

Over at the Las Vegas Hilton, they opened the game Sunday with the Colts a 7-point favorite and a standard money line of Colts minus-330 with a very generous take back of plus-270. As the game moved to 7 ½, so did the money line, peaking at -400/+330.

Read More Here on VegasInsider.com

Here's a few tidbits of past history regarding the Championship games:

Since 1970, 62% of all games (78) have been won by 11 points or more showing that when it comes down to all the marbles, one team goes for the throat while the other plays beneath the level that got them there.

In reference to Championship game points spreads and how those teams have finished that are similar to this weeks lines, you can see that the Colts have history on their side, not just winning, but covering the spread as well. Teams that were favored by 7 to 9.5-points are 14-4 against the spread.

Things are a little more competitive with the Vikings-Saints game, and how history relates to that spread. Teams that have been have been favored by 3.5 to 6.5-points in this round have gone 12-12-2 against the spread. The tightness of the number and team rating, minus the standard 3-point home-field advantage, basically make these pick 'em games.

In New Orleans case, the home field advantage -- one of the leagues better home edges -- is worth an extra half-point. So essentially the game is a tossup between the two best teams in the NFC, being played in a hostile environment. The big questions is, how much of a difference will the crowd make?

Overall, home teams vs the spread are 44-32-2 all-time. 


Current Line Through Friday Afternoon offered by the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ New Orleans Saints - Over/Under Total 52
New York Jets +7.5 @ Indianapolis Colts - O/U Total 39.5

Jets Win Over Chargers Makes Rex Ryan's Prediction Near Fruition

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

In almost a near repeat of Wild Card weekend, the first three Divisional Playoff games last weekend were snoozers with little drama. Then the weekend finale came Sunday evening and reminded us all why we love the NFL so much.


The Jets 17-14 win as 9.5-point underdogs at San Diego doesn’t match the shootout of the Packers-Cardinals with scores, but it topples that Wild Card game by being a major upset and unveiling this seasons Cinderella story.

No one believed Rex Ryan two weeks ago when a reporter asked him what he thought about the Jets 50 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl and he replied that they should be the favorite because they have the No. 1 defense and the No. 1 running game.

Just about everyone laughed. But so far, we know the Bengals and Chargers aren’t laughing as they’ve experienced first hand what a good combination those two features are in the playoffs.

MGM-Mirage Race and Sports Book Director Jay Rood likes what the Jets are doing, but can’t be faulted if he doesn’t root for them.

“Of the four teams remaining, we do the worst with the Jets on Futures (to win the Super Bowl),” said Rood, “Maybe we all should have listened to Rex Ryan a little closer.“

The Jets supposed weakness in rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has been somewhat of a strength during the playoffs. Under the Jets style of play, Sanchez only has to make a few passes, and must protect the ball, which he has done.

Sanchez’s second straight playoff win has already tied him with Hall of Famer Joe Namath in career playoff wins and has matched what Joe Flacco did last season with Baltimore as a rookie.

Baltimore happened to be where Rex Ryan was coaching last season before getting his first head coaching job with New York. While some grumbled when Ryan chose Sanchez to be the starter during pre-season, Ryan knew the job could get done by witnessing how the Ravens protected Flacco in a similar situation under their offensive scheme.

Read More Here on VegasInsider.com


Click Here: NFC Championship Game History with Lines & Totals

Mike T's NFL Divisional Round Selections: 7-1 Last week!

by Mike T.

It was a good start to wildcard weekend as I went 4-1 and am now 36-20 for the season. The Jets and the under(missed the exact score by a point) as well as the Cowboys were just too easy. The other two were a bit harder for me. Earlier in the week I liked the Pack and the Ravens but I changed my mind on both games and still wound up going 1-1.

The dog has done quite well in this round the past few years and I really like to take dogs but there is only one I like this week. That said here goes...

Saints -7 vs Cardinals and under 57

I actually like the under better than the side but I took them both. I made some decent money betting against the Saints this year especially down the stretch as the Saints' injuries kept piling up. This team has had plenty of rest now and The Big Easy will be rockin' tomorrow. The Cards just played a grueling overtime game and have to go on the road to an ear piercing loud dome on a short week. I think we'll see the Saints run the ball early and often keeping the clock moving and Warner on the sidelines. Darren Sharper and the rest of the Saints defense should create a turnover or two that will put this one away.

Saints 31 Cardinals 21

Ravens +6.5 at Colts
This is the only dog that I'm taking this weekend. The Colts do have an impressive record but they won at least a few games that could've gone the other way. The Colts still do have a long list of injuries (though mostly probable) which the Ravens may take advantage of. This game could start out like last week Ravens/Pats game where they take an early lead and never look back. I expect to see a heavy dose of Ray Rice and Willis Mcgahee and sound Raven defense. I'm taking Baltimore in a close one.
Ravens 24 Colts 23

Vikings -2.5 vs Cowboys
Out of all the games this week I like this one the most. The sharp money on the Vikes and the public on the Boys. Dallas has looked very impressive these last few weeks and people all over are coming out of the woodwork ready to put this team in the Bowl. While I must admit they are playing well, they've taken advantage of their opponents weaknesses the last few weeks that just don't exist this week. The Cowboys O line and D line have been pushing opponents lines around with ease recently. Now they face much tougher and healthier big men up front. They are not going to push this team around especially in their house. If they are able to slow down Adrian Peterson then Favre is gonna light them up. I also don't expect Romo to sit back in the pocket for long as the Vikes pass rush will be coming. I really don't think this one is gonna be as close as most do.
Vikings 34 Cowboys 17

Chargers-7 vs Jets and under 43
This is another game where I like the under better than the side. I did take them both though. The Jets are playing very well right now and a strong running game with a great defense will do that. The Chargers are also playing Lights Out. I think this one is going to come down to the quarterbacks. The Chargers have some very big WRs and Revis can't cover all of them. Rivers may come out firing to try and get a quick lead which may force the Jets to throw. Should San Diego jump out to an early lead it will be very hard for the Jets to get back in it. The MVP of this game might be a cornerback and if it is, his name will be Cromartie.
Chargers 28 Jets 13

Roberts NFL Divisional Playoff Selections: Who Dat Gonna Beat Dem Cardinals?

Cardinals +7 @ New Orleans: The Cardinals getting points on the road has been one of the best bets on the season going 5-0 against the spread. This is a resilient team led by a veteran QB in Kurt Warner who doesn’t rattle to the opposing teams fans. They have played their best ball in these situations dating back to last season in the playoffs. The Saints fans are some of the loudest, but the crowd has been disappointed and not a factor in losing their last two home games outright as large favorites. It’s been over a month since the Saints have won and they haven’t won convincingly since beating the Patriots on a Nov. 30 Monday night. That’s a long gap to believe they can all of a sudden become the week 12 Saints again.



Cardinals/Saints Under 57: There were 14 instances in the regular season where the game total was over 50 and the under went 11-3. The bulk of those games, 10 to be exact, were played in games involving the Saints and the under was 7-3 in those games. The Cardinals had two totals of 50 or higher and both went under the number.

Arizona lit up the scoreboard last week against the Packers, but the Cardinals defense showed a weakness against Aaron Rodgers who put 45 points on the board. The major difference coming into this game between what we saw last week is that the Packers offense had been fluid throughout to close the season while the Saints struggled badly against the Cowboys and Buccaneers at home. They weren’t able to move the ball in the same effective manner they did in the first 13 weeks of the season.

Just a side note: Over the last three season of the Divisional Playoff round, underdogs have gone 10-2 against the spread with seven of them winning straight up. I wouldn't be upset if I had to root for all four dogs this week.

NFL Divisional Playoffs: Las Vegas Money Moves Through Thursday

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

I was sitting in the Sam’s Town Sports Book the other night after a fine Mexican dinner at Willy and Jose’s and asked a few fellows who they thought may be the plays in the four NFL divisional playoff games this weekend and got an answer that was pretty one sided.


Joe, who hails originally from Chicago said, “The Chargers are going whoop that ass.”

Johnny from Philadelphia said the Saints, “Got a mission to accomplish and it don’t matter who is in their way.”

Not that it makes any difference where I was, but I’ll preface by saying I was in the den at Sam’s Town which is not exactly the same clientele as the Bellagio or Wynn Resorts, but it was the salt of the Vegas earth I was looking for.

I wanted to hear some opinions and thoughts from the everyday Joe’s on how this weekend's games were going to go. Even though the Sam’s Town Sports Book is much nicer in appearance in relation to the cast of clientele, it was the closest thing I could find to a group of audience that resembled the old Stardust where I could find a thousand reasons on each side of a big game to take each.

Joe from Chicago, also told me about a game he could be happy with on each side, “I’ll tell you what, I don’t know who to take between the Cowboys and Vikings. Brett Favre at home against what looks to be the best team in football right now. I could flip a coin on that game and be happy with either side.”

The dilemma on the Viking game seems to be a cautious tale around the Las Vegas Sports Books as well. The Vikings opened up a short 2.5-point home favorite but has been slightly bet up to 3 (EVEN) at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook.

Read More Here...

NFL's Defensive MVP, Charles Woodson? Rex Ryan Says Hogwash!

Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan was pretty heated about the announcement of who won the NFL's Most Valuable Player on Defense, which revealed that Charles Woodson had double the votes (28) of Darrelle Revis (14).

“I would like to congratulate the people who voted for Darrelle Revis,” Ryan said, “that these guys obviously really know the game. … A number I think is interesting would be eight. And, no, that’s not the amount of touchdown passes that Green Bay gave up against [the Arizona Cardinals in Sunday’s loss]. That is the number of touchdown passes we gave up all season as the Jets. And the biggest reason for that is Darrelle Revis.”

Cardinals Save The Day for Las Vegas Sports Books In An Absolute Thriller!

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

There haven’t been ooh’s and aah’s in Las Vegas Sportsbooks all season like what was witnessed by the thousands who viewed Sunday’s Packers-Cardinals Wild Card matchup. The game resembled more like an Arena Football league type of game with non-stop action than an NFL game, at least by the standards set from the three previous uneventful Wild Card games over the weekend. However, unlike the old Arena league games, this game was the most heavily bet game of the weekend.

Usually the final game of the playoff weekend always has the most wagers just because of all the repeat wagers after the other games are over. Sometimes their winning bets from earlier games are rolling over from someone feeling lucky, and then sometimes it’s the unlucky who are trying to recoup their losses from the other games.

By Friday of last week, before any of the games started, several sportsbooks were already reporting that the Cardinals game had the most action of the four games by far -- both from the sharps and small money. The ticket count ratio was 6 to 1 at many books in favor of the Packers and the actual cash wagers resembled the same ratio.

When the opening line came out last Sunday night, many opened the game with the Cardinals a 3 (EVEN) or 2 ½-point favorite. That number continued to slide down all week until finally having the Packers as a 1-point favorite by Thursday. By kickoff on Sunday, most books closed with the Packers being a 3-point favorite -- a six point move in many cases.

Everyone had Packers fever. The public had just witnessed the same game last week in Arizona with Green Bay winning easily 33-7, despite the Cardinals not playing many of their starters. They had just seen the Jets dispose of the Bengals like they did last week and same with the Cowboys thumping the Eagles again, why not the Packers too. The Packers offense had been so crisp the last few weeks led by Aaron Rodgers and the defense had been almost equally as strong.

Read More Here......

Mike T Blows through Wild Card Weekend Like a Gypsy With a Crystal Ball

Mike T. goes 7-1 for the weekend, going 3-1 on his side slections and 4-0 suggesting the over in each Wild Card game. This guy has had an insane season picking underdogs and is currently viewing each teams strengths and weakness very well.

Here what he has to choose from this week in the Divisional Playoff round:

Ravens +6.5 @ Indianapolis - total 44.5

Cardinals +7 @ New Orleans - total 56.5

Cowboys +2.5 @ Minnesota - total 46.5

Jets +8 @ San Diego - total 42.5

Wildcard Weekend

by Mike T.

Jets +2.5 at Bengals over 34
The Jets come into Cincinnati after destroying them last week in what was a pretty meaningless game for the Bengals. The Bengals have dropped three of the last for games heading into the playoffs. That is not a good sign. The Jets are pretty healthy while the Bengals have a long list of injuries. I like the Jets in this spot and I think the Bengals will put up some points to put this game over.
Jets 24 Bengals 13

Cowboys -4 vs Eagles

The Eagles have to travel back to "Big D" after blowing their chances of getting the two seed in the NFC last week. Unlike AZ and Cin, the Eagles had something to play for last week and didn't show up. The Cowboys defense has now pitched back to back shutouts and is playing their best ball of the season at the right time. I can see the front seven of the Cowboys taking advantage of an Eagle O line that's seen it's share of injuries once again. The Cowboys end their streak of playoff losses (since 1997) and take care of business.
Cowboys 31 Eagles 21


more on the Pats/Ravens and Cards/Pack later......

It was nice to start day one of the playoffs at 3-0 let's see if I can keep it going.

Pats -4 vs Ravens
This is the time of year when the Pats turn it up a notch. Many think that the loss of Welker means big trouble for New England. I'm sure they'd love to have him but Julian Edleman has done a fantastic job filling in for Welker earlier this year. Besides the Welker injury this Pats team is pretty healthy while the Ravens are the ones who are pretty banged up. This is also the Ravens 3rd straight road game and are 3-5 on the road this year. The Pats are 8-0 at home and about to make it 9.
Patriots 27 Ravens 17

Cardinals PK vs Packers
Earlier in the week I thought the Pack was the play here, now I don't think so. I watched this line move over 4 points in 5 days. That's unbelievable! This line opened at -2.5 for the Cards and now some books have the Cards as a 3 point home dog(5Dimes). It doesn't seem like anyone is betting on the Cards. I did and I probably should have waited longer and got a better price. I don't think we'll see anything like what we saw last week from these two teams. The NFC champs are not going to get blown out again at home by the same team two weeks in a row. I might have to go back to the book in the afternoon and get some money line.
Cardinals 38 Packers 30

Las Vegas Sports Book Moves for the NFL Wild Card Weekend

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The Sports Books in Las Vegas will look to turn the tide on Saturday and Sunday with the NFL Wild Card weekend. Before I get into where and why the Sports Books are at the numbers they are now, we need to go back to Sunday night and Monday morning when most of Vegas put the lines up.


Wild Card weekend is the major exception to setting NFL playoff lines that has to have past history taken into serious consideration. Underdogs rule in this round, especially games where the favored number is set from 1 to 3 points.

As documented by Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet, Underdogs getting 1 to 3-points in the Wild Card round have gone 24-16-2 since 1978. As it turned out, two of the four games would be in that area with the other two very close.

The strategies and lines that went out on Sunday and Monday were vastly different throughout the city with a wide array of numbers for the shoppers. When I saw all the differing numbers, it reminded me of the old Vegas days before off-shore wagering when no one moved on air and there was nothing called a market number.

There were lots opinions out there and you could see the respect for the number “3”. The book I like to reference the most when following lines is the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book because their shades on games generally seem to be more correct than most and they rarely use a market number. Jay Kornegay, Ed Salmons, and Jeff Sherman lead the staff of bookmakers at the Hilton and are the sharpest group in town.

Many of the Las Vegas Books opened the Bengals game 3-flat. Las Vegas Sports Consultants recommended the Bengals -4. The boys at the Hilton anticipated where the line was going to be, while respecting the number “3” and tested the waters with Bengals -3 (+105) which basically baits any sharp out there, “If you think the Bengals have value at 3 and you think the game will go to 3.5 or higher, come and get some plus money laying it.“

Read More here atVegasinsider.com

Alabama BCS Title Game Win not So Good For Las Vegas Sports Books

by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The combination of lingering parlay cards cashing on Alabama from the last four weeks of action and the day-of small action on Alabama made the 37-21 Crimson Tide win over Texas in the BCS Title game a tough day for the Las Vegas Books.

Even though there were plenty of large wagers on Texas, most books were still rooting for the Long Horns because of the extended risk created by the public’s majority perception.

Most of the Las Vegas Sports Books had up to five different weeks of parlay cards that had to be posted within the system all at once Thursday night and the results were not pretty.

“Every week, people were throwing in Alabama or Texas at the end of their parlays and if they hit their first few games the payouts with Alabama winning payout at odds of 11 to 1, 20 to 1 and higher. We would have lost with either Alabama or Texas,” said Coast Resorts Director of Race and Sports Bob Scucci.

Those kind of odds couldn’t be made up even with the meaty futures win that were posted on Alabama which traditionally have an expected hold of around 35%.

Ticket count ratios were reported at 5/1 and higher for the game on Alabama. Combine that loss with the extended risk on the cards, and wagers made on the day of -- most of which always take the favorite and over regardless of who is playing -- and it makes for a bad Thursday night in the Vegas Books.

For a brief moment, there appeared to a game changing moment regarding the spread when Texas scored late in the fourth quarter making it 24-19 with the extra-point pending. Some in the public, with Alabama tickets, were actually looking for Texas to kick the extra point. There were a few that were able to lay the 3.5, but most laid either 4 or 4.5-points.

It’s funny how some in the public think and root for things to happen that will never occur. What’s even funnier is that people like that actually bet on the game and have no football sense whatsoever. This is, of course, the same person who had Alabama and over parlayed, so who’s smart now?

Anyway, Texas did go for two -- and got it -- and you could hear a collective moan from the Sports Book crowd and a silent fist pump in unison by bookmakers across the Valley.

Well, you know how the rest went. A 24-21 game late in the fourth quarter, with the under 46 still winning, quickly turned into a 37-21 Alabama and over win.

Bowl Championship Series Title Game: Alabama vs Texas, Take The Points

Undefeated teams: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Alabama -4   O/U 44

    Alabama Point

• SEC looking for 4th straight BCS Title: Florida Bookends with LSU
• Nick Saban 10-3 SU & ATS when his team & opponent are undefeated
• SEC Championship game winners are 7-1 in Bowls
• Alabama No. 2 defense in Nation
• Texas bad game: vs Colorado in Austin October 10th: 14-14 at half - needed a punt and kick return to blow game open in 2nd half winning 38-14.

     Texas Counterpoint

• Heisman trophy jinx in Championship games: Mark Ingram - only two Heisman winners won their bowls in the last decade - both USC QB’s - and only Matt Leinart won the Heisman and Title in same year over that span. Since 1950 only 5 Heisman winners have won both in a season.
• Texas 7-0-1 all-time vs. Alabama - last meeting in 1982 Cotton Bowl (14-12 Texas win)
• Underdog is 19-6 ATS since 1985 when No. 1 plays No. 2
• Mack Brown 7-1 in last 8 Bowls
• Bama's bad game: vs Tennessee October 24th: 12-10 win in Tuscaloosa needing two 4th qtr blocked kicks to win the game.

Prediction: Texas 31-17

JaMarcus Russell Goes Bling-Bling Party-time

I came across this story on the web-site Sports-by-Brooks and found it hilarious. We've all heard the stories about how Russell doesn't like to study film, practice, or do anything that involves a team concept, but now we have some pictures of him rolling the high life with his fat contract...and belly.

His biggest legacy after his contract is over will be how he duped everyone at the NFL combine to believing he could be the next great quarterback. It would be interesting to see where he would have wound up if he didn't have a great bowl game against a bad Notre Dame defense that showed off his arm strength.

Had he not been given all that Raider cash as a number one overall pick, could he have possibly been motivated -- if drafted later -- to become that hungry do-everything QB that had to claw his way to the big time, doing whatever it took to make himself the best with the cash carrot dangling in front of him?

It's hard to say, but what really matters right now to him is that he's got a bangin' ornament -- with his jersey in bling -- hanging from his platinum rope.


Candid Cam: JaMarcus Russell's Vegas vacation?

Article From Oakland Tribune's Can Inman


TOP TEN reasons why Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell would skip Monday's final team meeting to go on a Vegas vacation:

But first, this disclaimer: Why Vegas, you ask? Because a reader, who commented on my Tuesday column to ditch Russell, claimed Russell was in Vegas at The Palms hotel. This came within 24 hours of the team meeting that coach Tom Cable excused him from for "personal" issues. I called The Palms and they confirmed a "JaMarcus Russell" had checked in as a guest. Is it really him? The Vegas gossip scribes will fill us in soon. My Twitter followers are abuzz with this news.)

No. 10: To find out if he can throw money around as easily as interceptions.

No. 9: To test the airport's new security measures with his big diamond earrings. (I got a tweet claiming airport security indeed made Russell take off his giant studs.)

No. 8: To launch his new diet: Nothing but Vegas buffets, baby!

No. 7: To film a sequel to, "The Hangover." Maybe he's stealing Mike Tyson's tiger as a training method to prepare for blitzing defenders next season.

No. 6: To go on blind dates with nightclub hostesses that Tiger Woods recommended.

No. 5: To place a bet on which day Cable would get fired by Al Davis.

No. 4: To use the Elvis Wedding Chappel (which, come to think of it, indeed might make for an "excused" absence from the Raiders).

No. 3: To serve as Javon Walker's bodyguard this time.

No. 2: To see how fast he fumbles his chips when he gets crowded at the craps table (pocket pressure, Vegas style).

No. 1: C'mon, nothing is more "personal" than a trip to Vegas.

NFL Wild Card Weekend - Las Vegas Lines

Saturday, January 9, 2010

1:30 pm (PT) - TV:NBC
New York Jets                     O/U
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5        34
Jets money came in early. This game opened Cincy -3 (+105), Las Vegas Sports Consultants recommended -4 & 36

5:00 pm (PT) - TV:NBC
Philadelphia Eagles             O/U
Dallas Cowboys -3.5            45
Eagles money came in on the opener of Eagles +4. LVSC suggested -4.5 & 45.5.


Sunday, January 10, 2010
10:00 am (PT) - TV:CBS
Baltimore Ravens                O/U
New England Patriots -3.5    43
It's been all Ravens money at most Vegas Books. Ravens opened up at +5 with some Vegas Books and LVSC sent the Patriots -6.5 & 42.

1:30 pm (PT) - TV:FOX
Green Bay Packers            O/U
Arizona Cardinals -1          47.5
It's been all Packers money thus far. Hilton opened the Cards at -3 (+110). LVSC sent out Arizona -3 (EV) & 48.5.


Lines Courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook

Since most of the games are hovering around the number "3", the below chart shows just how good the Dogs have been in this series. This season 15.2% of all NFL games have landed on "3" and in the last five seasons the figure is a combined 14.7%.

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAMES SINCE 1978 CATEGORY VS. POINTS

1-3 pt. dogs... 24-16-2

3 1/2-6 1/2 pt. dogs... 17-15-1

7-pt. or more dogs... 11-12

Home dogs... 11-3

Road dogs... 41-40-3

Margins of victory (98 total games)-21 games have been decided by 1-3 points, 21 games by 4-7 points, 12 games by 8-13 points, and 44 games have been decided by 14 points or more.

Mike T's Week 17 picks

by Mike T.

Happy New Year football fans. It seems like just yesterday we were kicking off the 2009 NFL season. We're now in the final week and like most years many of these games will be like a preseason game. For some teams everything is riding on this game while others have almost nothing to play for except some personal records.

I went back to taking dogs last week and felt really good about my picks as I was 2-0 early in the day but the Redskins didn't bother to show up for their home finale. I'm now 31-17 on the year and need a 3-0 day tomorrow to finish the season at .667

Lions +3.5 vs Bears
After keeping an eye on this game all week the line finally moved off of three points. The Bears played an emotional game against division their rival Vikings and pulled off an overtime win. I stayed away from the game but I did like the Bears in that spot getting points at home. Now the Lions are a home dog as they were much of the season but I think it's a similar spot and I think they can end the season on high note. We may see Calvin Johnson put up huge numbers against a very banged up Bears secondary.
Lions 30 Bears 24

Rams +7.5 vs 49ers
Taking divisional home dogs has done well for me this year and when they are getting more than 7 it's almost impossible for me to stay away. Steven Jackson will be playing for the NFC rushing title as he has a small (24 yd) lead over AP. I think we'll see him handle the rock quite often in this game. I also think coach Spagnolo wants to end this season on a positive note and win this game against a 49er team that has lost their last three games on the road. The 1-14 Rams go 8-8 against the spread to end the year.
Rams 16 49ers 14

Packers +3.5 at Cardinals
The line moved off of 3 in this game as well. It appears that the public is looking at this game as if the Cards have a shot at the 2 seed which brought enough money to get off 3. Well right now they do but by the end of the early games the shot at a bye week will no longer exist. After the Vikes lock up the 2 seed the Cards should have Matt Leinart in for almost the entire game. I can see the Packers getting up early in this one and playing well on defense, forcing turnovers and controlling this one from start to finish. You may want to bet this one after the Vikes game but you probably won't see 3.5.
Packers 27 Cardinals 17

Roberts NFL Selection: Patriots Get it Done in Texas

Patriots+7 vs Texans: Both teams have reeled off 3 straight wins, but the Texans have had the fortune of playing dead teams in Seattle and St. Louis during their streak. Look for The Patriots to maintain their winning attitude and carry it over to the playoffs with a quality performance at Houston playing the majority of their starters until the win is secure. The Texans are just one of those teams that have been snake bitten with bad luck all season and the Patriots are in the perfect position to finally put them out of their misery. This is a great money line situation with the Patriots getting +280.